Notre Dame at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Miami Hurricanes

Sunday, August 31st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -2.5 (53.5) (-135) Open: -2.5 | 53.5
Miami 27 - Notre Dame: 24

Fighting Irish (10 - 2) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 2 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Notre Dame -1 (SP+ ND -3.5)
Projected Score: ND: 27 - MIAMI: 26 (53)
ND Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 1140 miles

Hurricanes (13 - 3) (11 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 2.5 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ND Players
MIAMI Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Notre Dame at Miami	-2.5	53.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Notre Dame vs Texas A&M	-7.5	48.5	L 40 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/20	Notre Dame vs Purdue	-24.5	51.5	W 56 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Notre Dame at Arkansas	-5.5	64.5	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Notre Dame vs Boise State	-21.5	63.5	W 28 - 7	U	N
Sat 10/11	Notre Dame vs NC State	-23.5	59.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/18	Notre Dame vs USC	-10.5	60.5	W 34 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Notre Dame at Boston College	-31.5	55.5	W 25 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Notre Dame vs Navy	-30.5	54.5	W 49 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/15	Notre Dame at Pittsburgh	-12.5	55.5	W 37 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Notre Dame vs Syracuse	-36.5	51.5	W 70 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Notre Dame at Stanford	-32.5	50.5	W 49 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Miami's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 8/31	Miami vs Notre Dame	+2.5	53.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Miami vs Bethune-Cookman	-54.5	0.0	W 45 - 3	O	N
Sat 9/13	Miami vs South Florida	-17.5	56.5	W 49 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Miami vs Florida	-8.5	51.5	W 26 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	Miami at Florida State	-3.5	54.5	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	Miami vs Louisville	-10.5	49.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/25	Miami vs Stanford	-28.5	45.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Miami at SMU	-8.5	50.5	L 20 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/8	Miami vs Syracuse	-28.5	47.5	W 38 - 10	O	N
Sat 11/15	Miami vs NC State	-16.5	54.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Miami at Virginia Tech	-18.5	49.0	W 34 - 17	O	N
Sat 11/29	Miami at Pittsburgh	-6.5	49.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Miami at Texas A&M	+3.0	48.5	W 10 - 3	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Miami vs Ohio State	+7.5	39.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Thu 1/8	Miami vs Ole Miss	-3.0	52.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Mon 1/19	Miami vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 21 - 27	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND	#8 (.32)	47% (22)	42	47% (26)	3.31 (24)	181	47% (21)	160	4.8 (5)	#1 (-.02)	36% (8)	17.6	43% (73)	29% (1)	2.75 (4)	42.4	0.8	1.8
MIAMI	#2 (.4)	52% (1)	30.9	56% (1)	3.59 (4)	165	50% (7)	332	4.96 (2)	#69 (.16)	38% (26)	14.8	38% (16)	38% (40)	4.02 (91)	63.1	1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Offense	16	42	38.2	47%	4.8	0.8	17	341	181	160	6.3	53%	47%	47%	47%	11%	.32
MIAMI Defense	13	14.8	11.8	38.1%	4.02	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	38%	38%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ND Defense	16	17.6	17	36.4%	2.75	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	29%	19%	-.02
MIAMI Offense	13	30.9	36.1	52.5%	4.96	1	25	497	165	332	5.5	43%	57%	56%	50%	10%	.4

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Notre Dame	16	24:34	16.8	39%	76%	4.8	42.4	0.8	1.8	4	2.1	5	33.2
Miami	13	30:13	25.2	56%	65%	6.2	63.1	1	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Offense	16	53% (46)	47% (26)	28.6	181.3	6.3	42 (3)	.36 (2)	3.31 (24)	73% (71)	8% (26)	1.3 (1)
MIAMI Defense	13	45% (11)	38% (16)	-	-	-	-	.08 (49)	2.6 (16)	57% (4)	11% (43)	1.15 (125)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ND Defense	16	51% (78)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.1 (58)	2.9 (49)	67% (29)	10% (57)	0.85 (12)
MIAMI Offense	13	43% (114)	56% (1)	30.1	165.5	5.5	28 (25)	.32 (5)	3.59 (4)	90% (1)	6% (3)	0.95 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Offense	16	47% (89)	47% (21)	14.9	22.4	159.9	7.2	10.8	20 (58)	6 (10)	.29 (50)	1.3 (133)	28% (19)	32% (58)	.45 (22)	3% (6)	2.1 (50)
MIAMI Defense	13	55% (125)	38% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.23 (66)	1.7 (113)	36% (9)	36% (123)	.45 (115)	7% (34)	2.1 (84)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ND Defense	16	48% (59)	29% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	18 (4)	-.15 (1)	1.6 (67)	34% (29)	27% (24)	.1 (2)	8% (6)	1.6 (2)
MIAMI Offense	13	57% (20)	50% (7)	23.9	35.1	331.6	9.5	13.9	38 (1)	7 (26)	.47 (6)	1.7 (26)	27% (5)	42% (1)	.69 (1)	4% (15)	2.3 (6)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 28.73 #3
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 26.69 #6
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.21 #2
2025 Talent Rating: 1060.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 10.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.4 #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #13

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 28.73 Miami: 25.765

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.4 Miami: 20.7

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 25.765 #6
Miami's Offense Rating: 24.47 #13
Miami's Defense Rating: -1.36 #6
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 2.5
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7 #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Notre Dame 27
Miami 26

Projected Total Points: 53

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 11 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/31	Miami	27	Notre Dame	24	Notre Dame -2.5	Miami	53.5	Under
2017	11/11	Miami	41	Notre Dame	8	Notre Dame -3.5	Miami	59.5	Under
2016	10/29	Notre Dame	30	Miami	27	Notre Dame -1	Notre Dame	58.5	Under
2012	10/06	Notre Dame	41	Miami	3
2010	12/31	Miami	17	Notre Dame	33

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami	2	2	0 Overs
Notre Dame	3	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 4	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1

(#3) ND at (#6) MIAMI

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ND	MIAMI
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#3	#6
SP+SP+	#5	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#5	#5
OffenseOff	#5	#7
DefenseDef	#5	#4
Spec TeamsST	#23	#49
TalentTal	#7	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	#8	#9

Notre Dame Notes(11/16) Killed Pitt, 10-2 finish likely. Get healthy for CFP?
(11/4) Huge issues at K, missed 2 XP, short FG vs BC
(10/20) OG Billy Schrauth out until at least Pitt/Cuse (3 OL)
(10/18) 300 yds rush vs USC, Pass Def torched, huge Win
(10/16) DL G Rubio out vs SC (best DT) & L Thomas (depth)
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
Notre Dame Injury Report

Miami Notes(11/3) 9 trips into SMU territory only scored 20 pts
(11/2) Miami 4-11 under Mario in November+
(10/30) Ugly start vs Stanford, 35-0 in 2H. Def great
(10/30) QB C Beck looks hurt (elbow?) since L'ville game
(10/18) Is L'ville L same ole Miami? Something looked off
(10/17) Off awful, Beck 4 INT, 63 yds rush (2.6 ypc) in L
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
Miami Injury Report

Notre Dame on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	MIAMI Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#5	#4
SuccessSuc	#22	#26
ExplosiveExp	#35	#130
PPAPPA	#8	#69
PowerPwr	#6	#6
SP+SP+	#4	#7
Pts POPPO	#5	#91
HavocHav	#8	#39

Notre Dame Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#5	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#26	#16
Run ExplRExp	#1	#125
PPAExp	#2	#49
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#24	#16
Stuff RateStuff	#36	#7
TackleTak	-	#120

Notre Dame Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ND Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#10	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#133	#113
PPAExp	#50	#66
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#59	#1
F7 HavocF7	#26	#43
DB HavocDB	#6	#34

Miami on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	ND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#7	#5
SuccessSuc	#1	#8
ExplosiveExp	#22	#14
PPAPPA	#2	#1
PowerPwr	#13	#2
SP+SP+	#22	#13
Pts POPPO	#2	#4
HavocHav	#4	#25

Miami Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	ND Def
Run GameRun	#21	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#1	#73
Run ExplRExp	#73	#12
PPAExp	#5	#58
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#4	#49
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#89
TackleTak	-	#9

Miami Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	ND Def
Pass GamePass	#32	#7
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#1
Pass ExplPExl	#26	#67
PPAExp	#6	#1
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#25
F7 HavocF7	#3	#57
DB HavocDB	#15	#6

Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame 2.5 (53.5)
Miami won vs Notre Dame this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Notre Dame last year (27-24)

ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
C.J. Carr	195	293	67%	2741	24	6	9.4
Kenny Minchey	20	26	77%	196	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiyah Love	199	1372	18	6.9	94
Jadarian Price	113	674	11	6.0	58
Aneyas Williams	24	224	5	9.3	54
Kenny Minchey	7	84	1	12.0	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Faison	49	640	4	13.1	54
Malachi Fields (Tr)	36	630	5	17.5	66
Eli Raridon	32	482	0	15.1	65
Will Pauling (Tr)	26	381	6	14.7	44

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5
Jaiden Ausberry	51	4	2	5	0
Tae Johnson	48	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Boubacar Traore	37	10	7	8	0
Drayk Bowen	67	5	4	2	3
Joshua Burnham	16	6	3	2	1
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa	48	8	3	5	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christian Gray	18	1	0	0	10
Leonard Moore	31	0	0	0	7
Adon Shuler	52	2	1	2	5

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Beck (Tr)	338	468	72%	3813	30	12	8.1
Emory Williams	13	19	68%	156	0	0	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.	216	1192	12	5.5	57
CharMar Brown (Tr)	122	460	7	3.8	13
Girard Pringle Jr.	62	375	4	6.0	38
Malachi Toney	23	113	1	4.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Toney	109	1211	10	11.1	61
Keelan Marion (Tr)	57	746	2	13.1	61
C.J. Daniels (Tr)	50	557	7	11.1	47
Elija Lofton	23	218	3	9.5	29

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)	75	4	4	0	6
Wesley Bissainthe	71	3	1	1	0
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)	68	3	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	63	18	13	6	0
Rueben Bain Jr.	54	16	10	5	1
Keionte Scott (Tr)	64	13	5	8	5
Ahmad Moten	31	9	5	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Lucas (Tr)	45	2	1	1	8
OJ Frederique Jr.	19	0	0	0	7
Mohamed Toure (Tr)	84	3	2	1	6