Notre Dame at Miami - 2025 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo (#6)Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Miami Hurricanes(#10)Miami logo
Sunday, August 31st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -2.5 (53.5) (-135)  Open: -2.5 | 53.5
Miami 27 - Notre Dame: 24

 
Fighting Irish (4 - 2) (3 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (33 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 21 (40 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
Heavy Rain Shower Predicted
Our Line: Miami -3  (SP+ ND -1)

Projected Score: ND: 27 - MIAMI: 30 (58)
ND Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 1140 miles
Hurricanes (5 - 0) (4 - 1 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 35 - 14 (37 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 0.7 (#4)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
 
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Notre Dame at Miami-2.553.5L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Notre Dame vs Texas A&M-7.548.5L 40 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Notre Dame vs Purdue-24.551.5W 56 - 30OY
Sat 9/27 Notre Dame at Arkansas-5.564.5W 56 - 13OY
Sat 10/4 Notre Dame vs Boise State-21.563.5W 28 - 7UN
Sat 10/11 Notre Dame vs NC State-23.559.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 10/18 Notre Dame vs USC-8.561.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Notre Dame at Boston College-26.5
Sat 11/8 Notre Dame vs Navy-24.5
Sat 11/15 Notre Dame at Pittsburgh-9.5
Sat 11/22 Notre Dame vs Syracuse-30.5
Sat 11/29 Notre Dame at Stanford-30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.553.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.50.0W 45 - 3ON
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-17.556.5W 49 - 12OY
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-8.551.5W 26 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-3.554.5W 28 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-13.551.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-36
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-8
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-31
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-21.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-29
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-10

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#13 (.35)50% (18)4049% (27)3.06 (56)17551% (16)2935.05 (14)#64 (.16)41% (69)20.843% (82)40% (62)3.36 (37)5012
MIAMI#32 (.29)51% (12)3550% (24)3.19 (39)16353% (6)2644.97 (16)#23 (.06)36% (15)13.636% (20)35% (19)3.53 (53)62.80.61.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)56% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)38% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense6404049.9%5.05124468175293553%47%49%51%14%.35
MIAMI Defense513.611.535.7%3.531.8 - - - - - 46%54%36%35%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense620.82041.3%3.362 - - - - - 44%56%43%40%15%.16
MIAMI Offense53536.851.2%4.970.6234281632644.553%47%50%53%10%.29

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame629:5423.749%36%5.850123.52.3231.1
Miami532:5922.648%63%7.662.80.61.86.22.4032.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense653% (42)49% (27)34.8174.7517 (16).23 (31)3.06 (56)54% (134)9% (71)1.07 (34)
MIAMI Defense546% (32)36% (20) - - - - -.07 (8)2.64 (34)64% (32)12% (29)0.86 (30)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense644% (16)43% (82) - - - - .14 (93)3.16 (117)68% (52)6% (134)0.9 (43)
MIAMI Offense553% (44)50% (24)36.2163.44.512 (48).14 (61)3.19 (39)84% (14)5% (3)0.81 (119)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense647% (90)51% (16)1928292.810.515.413 (27)3 (26).5 (14)1.7 (18)29% (36)45% (3).62 (9)5% (52)1.8 (109)
MIAMI Defense554% (109)35% (19) - - - - - - 5 (46).17 (42)1.6 (82)38% (11)29% (66).29 (70)6% (75)1.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense656% (121)40% (62) - - - - - - 11 (2).19 (52)1.5 (69)34% (38)26% (31).23 (51)8% (10)2 (82)
MIAMI Offense547% (88)53% (6)22.430.8264.28.611.811 (49)3 (26).45 (24)1.4 (109)24% (8)29% (87).22 (103)5% (42)2 (61)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 30.98  #10
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 29.14  #8
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.15  #27
2025 Talent Rating: 1072.00  #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 58%  #8
Notre Dame's 2025 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Notre Dame's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.3  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7  #23

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 30.98   Miami: 29.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 21.3   Miami: 20.5




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 29.15  #3
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.46  #7
Miami's Defense Rating: -9.88  #8
2025 Talent Rating: 964.00  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 55  #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 0.7
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.5  #15
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.0  #6
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7  #23

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense on Road: 40
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Notre Dame's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 30
Notre Dame 27


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Notre Dame 37
Miami 35

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Miami 28
Notre Dame 26

Total Points: 54
Miami Scoring
Offense: 35 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 13.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.5

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/31Miami27Notre Dame24Notre Dame -2.5Miami53.5Under
201711/11Miami41Notre Dame8Notre Dame -3.5Miami59.5Under
201610/29Notre Dame30Miami27Notre Dame -1Notre Dame58.5Under
201210/06Notre Dame41Miami3
201012/31Miami17Notre Dame33
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami220 Overs
Notre Dame313 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 13 - 01 - 02 - 0
Road Teams1 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 1

(#10) ND at (#3) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDMIAMI
Power RatePwr #10 #3
SP+SP+ #9 #15
Perf GradeGrade #18 #4
OffenseOff #10 #11
DefenseDef #45 #3
Spec TeamsST #44 #113
TalentTal #6 #16
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #9

Notre Dame Notes
(10/13) OC Craig out for season, Irish down 2 starting OL
(10/11) Last 35 Def series, 4 TDs, 9 Ints. 0 2nd Half Points
(10/10) CB L Moore is essential to Irish defense. #1 in CFB
(9/27) Off is rolling, avg 44 PPG. Carr impressive, run great
(9/23) RB Love & Price are incredible, OL improving
(9/21) Freeman sounds exhausted about Def issues
(9/21) Off rising to dominant, QB Carr & WR improved
(9/15) Pass Def is awful. DB depth is huge issue
(9/15) DL a big issue, no pass rush w/ all these DEs?
(8/31) Carr is a baller, but OL is not good. Def leaked
(8/19) QB1 will be CJ Carr, beat Kenny Minchey

Miami Notes
(9/20) Def awesome, DL may be best in CFB. Contender
(9/20) Beck awful vs Gators, Run Off tough and good
(8/22) TE Lofton a name to watch. Athletic, staff high
(8/20) WR1 Trader seems to be getting most buzz
(6/8) Strength coach resigned in June? Bad timing
(6/4) RBs Fletcher good, Lyle, Seldon (FCS) great depth
(5/23) DEs Bain + Mesidor is one of CFBs top units
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffMIAMI Def
Perf GradePerf #10 #3
SuccessSuc #18 #15
ExplosiveExp #16 #56
PPAPPA #13 #23
PowerPwr #8 #8
SP+SP+ #4 #23
Pts POPPO #14 #53
HavocHav #58 #44
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #14 #2
Run SuccessRSuc #27 #20
Run ExplRExp #34 #30
PPAExp #31 #8
Run BlockR Blk #73 -
OL YdsOLY #56 #34
Stuff RateStuff #100 #85
TackleTak -  #82
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #12 #31
Pass SuccessPSuc #16 #19
Pass ExplPExl #18 #82
PPAExp #14 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #72 #3
F7 HavocF7 #71 #29
DB HavocDB #52 #75
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #11 #45
SuccessSuc #12 #69
ExplosiveExp #128 #60
PPAPPA #32 #64
PowerPwr #7 #27
SP+SP+ #6 #23
Pts POPPO #16 #37
HavocHav #7 #103
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffND Def
Run GameRun #31 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #24 #82
Run ExplRExp #119 #43
PPAExp #61 #93
Run BlockR Blk #12 -
OL YdsOLY #39 #117
Stuff RateStuff #20 #123
TackleTak -  #28
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffND Def
Pass GamePass #46 #65
Pass SuccessPSuc #6 #62
Pass ExplPExl #109 #69
PPAExp #24 #52
Pass Block/RushP Blk #8 #73
F7 HavocF7 #3 #134
DB HavocDB #42 #10
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Heavy Rain Shower
Temp: 83°( - Hum: 78%)
- Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Notre Dame 2.5 (53.5)
Miami won vs Notre Dame this year (27-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
C.J. Carr10515867%162213310.3
Kenny Minchey8989%950010.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love10053085.346
Jadarian Price6342276.749
Nolan James Jr.83304.115
Aneyas Williams63015.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Faison29376213.048
Eli Raridon20342017.165
Malachi Fields (Tr)18339218.866
Will Pauling (Tr)13243318.742

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen311120
Adon Shuler290002
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa282111
Jaiden Ausberry261100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boubacar Traore246530
Jaylen Sneed143200
Drayk Bowen311120
Jordan Botelho111110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Gray110006
Mark Zackery IV71002
Adon Shuler290002

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)10214073%12131138.7
Emory Williams101471%108007.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.7842855.538
CharMar Brown (Tr)5721043.712
Girard Pringle Jr.74826.930
Keelan Marion (Tr)235017.522
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney29375312.944
C.J. Daniels (Tr)23269511.747
Keelan Marion (Tr)11125011.436
Elija Lofton1110009.117

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rueben Bain Jr.264231
Mohamed Toure (Tr)241101
Akheem Mesidor235420
Wesley Bissainthe222000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akheem Mesidor235420
Rueben Bain Jr.264231
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)203202
Ahmad Moten102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keionte Scott (Tr)204033
OJ Frederique Jr.60002
Jakobe Thomas (Tr)203202