Oregon at Iowa - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oregon logo (#9)Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes(#20)Iowa logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Oregon -4.5 (41.5) (-198)  Open: -7.5
Oregon 18 - Iowa: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Ducks (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 38 - 15 (33 - 16 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Rain Predicted
ORE coming off BYE
IOWA coming off BYE
Our Line: Oregon -7  (SP+ ORE -9.5)

Projected Score: ORE: 26 - IOWA: 19 (44)
ORE Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
ORE Travel: 1595 miles, 2 hrs behind
Hawkeyes (9 - 4) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (204 - 123)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#50)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26.545.5W 42 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-10.559.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6.551.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 12/20 Oregon vs James Madison-22.547.5W 51 - 34ON
Thu 1/1 Oregon vs Texas Tech+1.550.5W 23 - 0UY
Fri 1/9 Oregon vs Indiana+4.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Iowa's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Iowa vs UAlbany-39.548.5W 34 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Iowa at Iowa State+3.043.0L 13 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 Iowa vs Massachusetts-35.544.5W 47 - 7OY
Fri 9/19 Iowa at Rutgers-2.546.5W 38 - 28OY
Sat 9/27 Iowa vs Indiana+9.547.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Iowa at Wisconsin-5.537.5W 37 - 0UY
Sat 10/18 Iowa vs Penn State-3.541.5W 25 - 24ON
Sat 10/25 Iowa vs Minnesota-7.539.5W 41 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Iowa vs Oregon+4.541.5L 16 - 18UY
Sat 11/15 Iowa at USC+6.548.5L 21 - 26UY
Sat 11/22 Iowa vs Michigan State-17.543.0W 20 - 17UN
Fri 11/28 Iowa at Nebraska-5.538.5W 40 - 16OY
Wed 12/31 Iowa vs Vanderbilt+3.047.5W 34 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#2 (.39)51% (5)3853% (2)3.37 (10)18750% (11)2124.4 (24)#14 (.04)37% (17)15.140% (48)34% (12)3.86 (90)43.40.61.2
IOWA#76 (.16)44% (47)29.349% (15)3.41 (7)16438% (107)1274.39 (25)#19 (.06)39% (35)16.141% (58)38% (32)3.27 (35)26.10.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Offense143832.851%4.40.6193991872125.852%46%53%50%9%.39
IOWA Defense1316.113.738.9%3.271.1 - - - - - 50%48%41%38%17%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Defense1415.115.636.8%3.861.2 - - - - - 49%49%40%34%18%.04
IOWA Offense1329.328.344.4%4.390.9162911641274.660%38%49%38%11%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon1426:3119.449%64%4.543.40.61.24.11.6430.6
Iowa1328:581643%67%2.626.10.91.14.41.6533
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Offense1452% (47)53% (2)32.2187.25.830 (16).34 (3)3.37 (10)80% (15)6% (5)1.06 (32)
IOWA Defense1350% (63)41% (58) - - - - .07 (51)2.87 (68)69% (51)10% (49)0.87 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Defense1449% (55)40% (48) - - - - .06 (49)2.73 (37)75% (99)9% (83)0.94 (59)
IOWA Offense1360% (12)49% (15)35.9164.14.626 (23).2 (29)3.41 (7)83% (5)8% (32)0.87 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Offense1446% (93)50% (11)17.424211.58.812.225 (6)6 (34).48 (7)1.6 (47)25% (7)31% (58).39 (36)3% (4)2.1 (57)
IOWA Defense1348% (67)38% (32) - - - - - - 11 (38).14 (23)1.3 (4)29% (112)23% (5).17 (19)7% (31)1.9 (47)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Defense1449% (83)34% (12) - - - - - - 13 (22).1 (18)1.6 (95)36% (15)27% (27).17 (23)9% (3)2 (49)
IOWA Offense1338% (126)38% (107)12.620.3126.86.310.110 (128)7 (60).19 (100)1.5 (92)26% (13)25% (120).13 (126)3% (4)1.8 (120)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.05  #3
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.91  #8
Oregon's Defense Rating: -10.88  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67%  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.1  #13
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.4  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 28.05   Iowa: 20.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 27.1   Iowa: 17.5




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 20.64  #20
Iowa's Offense Rating: 14.86  #41
Iowa's Defense Rating: -3.92  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 840.00  #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14  #33
Iowa's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 4.6
Iowa's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #48
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 15.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.6

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 26
Iowa 19


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 26
Iowa 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 25
Iowa 22

Total Points: 47
Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Iowa16Oregon18Oregon -4.5Iowa41.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa010 Overs
Oregon101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#3) ORE at (#20) IOWA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOREIOWA
Power RatePwr #3 #20
SP+SP+ #4 #15
Perf GradeGrade #6 #9
OffenseOff #4 #8
DefenseDef #11 #18
Spec TeamsST #17 #8
TalentTal #3 #41
Blue ChipsBC% #5 #33
Oregon Notes
(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report
Iowa Notes
(11/28) Killed Neb to finish 8-4, 6-3 in B1G. Good season
(11/22) Stop L streak with comeback vs MSU. Found a way
(11/16) 2 hard L's to Ducks/USC. 6-4 feels crossroad-ish
(10/27) 41 pts on < 300 yds vs Minn. Def was incredible
(10/22) Least penalized team in CFB, both for & against
(10/19) Tired Off, beat PSU by 1 w/ backup QB. Def good
(10/8) QB Gronowski trending towards playing vs Wisc
(9/29) Off awful vs IU, sub 300 yds. Run Def great, Off bad
(9/29) Lost 11 straight vs ranked opps thru IU game
(9/19) QB Gronowski limited but improving. WR suck
(9/19) If refs call Def holding these CB's are cooked
(9/10) Starting TE Ostrenga out for the season
Iowa Injury Report
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffIOWA Def
Perf GradePerf #4 #18
SuccessSuc #5 #35
ExplosiveExp #35 #3
PPAPPA #2 #19
PowerPwr #8 #20
SP+SP+ #13 #7
Pts POPPO #24 #35
HavocHav #3 #44
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffIOWA Def
Run GameRun #1 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #58
Run ExplRExp #32 #23
PPAExp #3 #51
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #68
Stuff RateStuff #16 #69
TackleTak -  #92
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffIOWA Def
Pass GamePass #5 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #11 #32
Pass ExplPExl #47 #4
PPAExp #7 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #7
F7 HavocF7 #5 #49
DB HavocDB #4 #31
Iowa on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffORE Def
Perf GradePerf #8 #11
SuccessSuc #47 #17
ExplosiveExp #133 #65
PPAPPA #76 #14
PowerPwr #41 #4
SP+SP+ #48 #5
Pts POPPO #25 #90
HavocHav #6 #23
Iowa Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
IOWA OffORE Def
Run GameRun #30 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #15 #48
Run ExplRExp #112 #59
PPAExp #29 #49
Run BlockR Blk #1 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #37
Stuff RateStuff #7 #100
TackleTak -  #7
Iowa Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatIOWA OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #56 #11
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #12
Pass ExplPExl #92 #95
PPAExp #100 #18
Pass Block/RushP Blk #4 #46
F7 HavocF7 #32 #83
DB HavocDB #4 #3
Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 43° - Wind: 6 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 11
Oregon 4.5 (41.5)
Oregon won at Iowa this year (18-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ORE's OC Will Stein (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore24634072%30462889.0
Brock Thomas121675%130108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11679866.968
Jordon Davison97625136.467
Dierre Hill Jr.6555758.666
Jayden Limar4325936.053
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)36645617.964
Kenyon Sadiq42509812.130
Jeremiah McClellan31480315.551
Dakorien Moore29448315.465

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher1095154
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)713115
Teitum Tuioti6014875
Aaron Flowers601012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti6014875
Matayo Uiagalelei309573
Nasir Wyatt92210
A'Mauri Washington315256
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Finney Jr.343107
Ify Obidegwu221006
A'Mauri Washington315256

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Mark Gronowski (Tr)15024063%1529866.4
Hank Brown (Tr)112152%107115.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kamari Moulton15678345.034
Mark Gronowski (Tr)120491154.167
Jaziun Patterson5729905.217
Xavier Williams4426035.943
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Vonnahme22288213.143
Sam Phillips (Tr)16261016.345
Jacob Gill22260111.844
Reece Vander Zee11186116.929

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Karson Sharar7810251
Xavier Nwankpa691010
Koen Entringer694013
Zach Lutmer686106
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Max Llewellyn239675
Ethan Hurkett339620
Aaron Graves367531
Karson Sharar7810251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
TJ Hall390008
Zach Lutmer686106
Deshaun Lee341006