Auburn at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Auburn logo Auburn Tigers at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Friday, August 29th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Auburn -1.5 (57.5) (-115)  Open: -1.5 | 57.5
Auburn 38 - Baylor: 24

 
Tigers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach D. J. Durkin (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Temp: 91° (55% Hum)
Our Line: Auburn -7.5  (SP+ AUB -11)

Projected Score: AUB: 32 - BAY: 25 (57)
AUB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
AUB Travel: 684 miles
Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.547.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+6.551.5L 10 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia+4.545.5L 10 - 20UN
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri+1.543.5L 17 - 23UN
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas+2.555.5W 33 - 24OY
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-11.544.5L 3 - 10UN
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt+6.046.5L 38 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-26.551.5W 62 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+6.548.5L 20 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-3.060.5L 24 - 27UN
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-21.058.5W 45 - 27ON
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-4.559.5W 35 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+3.566.5L 36 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+3.568.5L 20 - 41UN
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-3.058.5W 30 - 3UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+9.560.5L 28 - 55ON
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona+6.561.5L 17 - 41UN
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-2.557.5L 24 - 31UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 7, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#71 (.17)43% (57)26.847% (31)3.19 (26)17740% (89)1973.9 (52)#21 (.07)38% (28)20.733% (5)44% (97)3.37 (44)63.70.71.4
BAY#50 (.2)45% (39)31.147% (38)3.09 (42)14244% (40)3103.69 (70)#81 (.18)44% (105)32.646% (108)43% (91)4.3 (125)61.420.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Offense1226.827.243.4%3.90.7213741771974.751%48%47%40%17%.17
BAY Defense1232.627.944.3%4.30.9 - - - - - 56%42%46%43%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Defense1220.726.638.3%3.371.4 - - - - - 48%51%33%44%17%.07
BAY Offense1231.129.645%3.692254511423104.240%59%47%44%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Auburn1229:2520.839%52%7.863.70.71.46.62.6326.8
Baylor1229:1524.838%53%661.420.941128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Offense1251% (60)47% (31)37.8176.94.723 (36).24 (15)3.19 (26)80% (18)11% (117)1 (55)
BAY Defense1256% (129)46% (108) - - - - .14 (92)3.15 (111)89% (134)7% (131)0.96 (69)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Defense1248% (45)33% (5) - - - - -.11 (3)2.25 (4)70% (58)11% (24)0.89 (29)
BAY Offense1240% (129)47% (38)34.1141.64.212 (88).17 (43)3.09 (42)77% (33)8% (38)0.9 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Offense1248% (78)40% (89)18.430.2197.16.510.711 (121)4 (3).13 (120)1.3 (134)31% (61)27% (106).21 (104)6% (54)2 (87)
BAY Defense1242% (9)43% (91) - - - - - - 9 (55).25 (72)1.4 (14)28% (123)29% (64).24 (52)6% (87)1.7 (8)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Defense1251% (96)44% (97) - - - - - - 11 (75).27 (80)1.6 (82)32% (56)31% (88).3 (71)5% (90)2 (60)
BAY Offense1259% (8)44% (40)25.842.5309.67.31231 (3)12 (88).25 (69)1.5 (80)31% (58)33% (30).42 (28)6% (84)2.1 (34)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 17.88  #24
Auburn's Offense Rating: 11.58  #55
Auburn's Defense Rating: -6.30  #10
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52%  #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.9  #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3  #58
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.6  #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 17.88   Baylor: 7.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 11.9   Baylor: 0.7




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 7.505  #44
Baylor's Offense Rating: 15.84  #35
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.53  #56
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.7  #69
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #30
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.5  #108

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 32
Baylor 25


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Baylor 33
Auburn 23

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 29
Baylor 27

Total Points: 56
Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/29Baylor24Auburn38Auburn -1.5Auburn57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor001 Overs
Auburn110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#24) AUB at (#44) BAY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAUBBAY
Power RatePwr #24 #44
SP+SP+ #29 #69
Perf GradeGrade #87 #77
OffenseOff #95 #57
DefenseDef #51 #101
Spec TeamsST #99 #11
TalentTal #12 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #12 #49
Auburn Notes
(12/2) DC D. J. Durkin will remain on Golesh staff in '26
(11/30) Hired Alex Golesh (S Florida, former Tenn OC).
(11/20) QB1 Fr Deuce Knight will start vs Mercer, Bama
(11/2) HC Hugh Freeze fired after UK loss
(11/1) Home L to UK w/ 241 total yds. Freeze done
(10/31) Ashton Daniels will start vs UK, Arnold benched
(10/25) WR Coleman & Singleton both hurt vs Ark
(10/24) QB1 battle in week 9, Arnold still the starter. Yikes
(10/23) Auburn on a 3-11 run vs P4 teams since '24
(10/22) K A McPherson bad, longest FG is 34 yards
(10/20) Top OL Center Connor Lew out for season (ACL)
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
Auburn Injury Report
Baylor Notes
(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report
Auburn on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffBAY Def
Perf GradePerf #95 #101
SuccessSuc #57 #105
ExplosiveExp #130 #16
PPAPPA #71 #81
PowerPwr #55 #56
SP+SP+ #58 #108
Pts POPPO #52 #125
HavocHav #99 #127
Auburn Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffBAY Def
Run GameRun #47 #120
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #108
Run ExplRExp #55 #69
PPAExp #15 #92
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #26 #111
Stuff RateStuff #20 #125
TackleTak -  #39
Auburn Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
AUB OffBAY Def
Pass GamePass #108 #39
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #91
Pass ExplPExl #134 #14
PPAExp #120 #72
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #75 #111
F7 HavocF7 #117 #131
DB HavocDB #54 #87
Baylor on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffAUB Def
Perf GradePerf #57 #51
SuccessSuc #39 #28
ExplosiveExp #53 #92
PPAPPA #50 #21
PowerPwr #35 #10
SP+SP+ #30 #15
Pts POPPO #70 #44
HavocHav #57 #50
Baylor Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat
BAY OffAUB Def
Run GameRun #92 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #5
Run ExplRExp #96 #29
PPAExp #43 #3
Run BlockR Blk #56 -
OL YdsOLY #42 #4
Stuff RateStuff #28 #5
TackleTak -  #75
Baylor Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCatBAY OffAUB Def
Pass GamePass #60 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #97
Pass ExplPExl #80 #82
PPAExp #69 #80
Pass Block/RushP Blk #89 #44
F7 HavocF7 #38 #24
DB HavocDB #84 #90
Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 91° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Auburn 1.5 (57.5)
Auburn won at Baylor this year (38-24)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)13621563%1309626.1
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb17596955.546
Jackson Arnold (Tr)11231182.856
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6328024.426
Deuce Knight13178413.775
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Coleman57725512.746
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)5853439.248
Malcolm Simmons25457218.391
Perry Thompson1715409.134

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Robert Woodyard Jr.677251
Kaleb Harris502101
Keyron Crawford36105100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)8417971
Keyron Crawford36105100
Chris Murray (Tr)154410
Keldric Faulk275264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kayin Lee310004
Jay Crawford151004
Keldric Faulk275264

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson30450360%368131127.3
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington15478865.141
Caden Knighten10446914.549
Michael Turner6532014.940
Joseph Dodds2610414.015
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josh Cameron69872912.648
Michael Trigg50694613.942
Ashtyn Hawkins53621011.741
Kole Wilson (Tr)44591513.464

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas997113
Devyn Bobby772002
Jacob Redding531002
Kyland Reed502021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)246440
Jackie Marshall306200
Keaton Thomas997113
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Levar Thornton Jr.271007
DJ Coleman414034
Caldra Williford (Tr)161004