Auburn at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, August 29th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Auburn -1.5 (57.5) (-115) Open: -1.5 | 57.5
Auburn 38 - Baylor: 24

Tigers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Auburn -4.5 (SP+ AUB -10)
Projected Score: AUB: 31 - BAY: 26 (57)
AUB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
AUB Travel: 684 miles

Bears (5 - 7) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 31 - 33 (30 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
BAY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Auburn at Baylor	-1.5	57.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Auburn vs Ball State	-43.0	52.5	W 42 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/13	Auburn vs South Alabama	-26.5	56.5	W 31 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/20	Auburn at Oklahoma	+6.5	47.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/27	Auburn at Texas A&M	+6.5	51.5	L 10 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Auburn vs Georgia	+4.5	45.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/18	Auburn vs Missouri	+1.5	43.5	L 17 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/25	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	55.5	W 33 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Auburn vs Kentucky	-11.5	44.5	L 3 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/8	Auburn at Vanderbilt	+6.0	46.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Auburn vs Mercer	-26.5	51.5	W 62 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Auburn vs Alabama	+6.5	48.5	L 20 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Baylor's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Baylor vs Auburn	+1.5	57.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Baylor at SMU	+3.0	65.5	W 48 - 45	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Baylor vs Samford	-51.5	65.5	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/20	Baylor vs Arizona State	-3.0	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/27	Baylor at Oklahoma State	-21.0	58.5	W 45 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/4	Baylor vs Kansas State	-4.5	59.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Baylor at TCU	+3.5	66.5	L 36 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/25	Baylor at Cincinnati	+3.5	68.5	L 20 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/1	Baylor vs UCF	-3.0	58.5	W 30 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Baylor vs Utah	+9.5	60.5	L 28 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/22	Baylor at Arizona	+6.5	61.5	L 17 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/29	Baylor vs Houston	-2.5	57.5	L 24 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)	26.8	48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)	20.7	38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1
BAY	#29 (.25)	47% (23)	31.1	46% (37)	3.19 (43)	174	48% (14)	227	4.28 (30)	#74 (.18)	39% (38)	32.6	38% (13)	42% (78)	3.85 (77)	58.1	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BAY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	12	26.8	27.2	44.9%	3.42	1.8	21	430	166	264	5	48%	52%	48%	42%	17%	.24
BAY Defense	13	32.6	27.9	39.4%	3.85	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	38%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	12	20.7	26.6	37.8%	3.35	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	38%	38%	15%	.09
BAY Offense	13	31.1	29.6	46.8%	4.28	1	21	401	174	227	5	52%	48%	46%	48%	12%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	12	27:13	20.9	41%	47%	5.8	49.3	1.8	1.1	5.7	2.3	1	27.9
Baylor	13	25:48	20.6	44%	61%	5.8	58.1	1	1.6	5.1	1.8	2	31.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	12	48% (85)	48% (21)	33.4	165.7	5	13 (105)	.16 (55)	3.32 (23)	69% (95)	10% (67)	0.92 (89)
BAY Defense	13	54% (107)	38% (13)	-	-	-	-	.11 (64)	3.03 (74)	82% (122)	9% (84)	1.03 (92)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	12	53% (98)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (7)	2.49 (6)	80% (108)	10% (81)	0.93 (44)
BAY Offense	13	52% (61)	46% (37)	35.1	174.3	5	23 (52)	.18 (41)	3.19 (43)	77% (42)	7% (9)	1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	12	52% (47)	42% (67)	19.2	30.8	263.9	8.6	13.8	27 (20)	13 (103)	.31 (45)	1.6 (39)	31% (55)	32% (69)	.41 (34)	7% (113)	1.9 (101)
BAY Defense	13	46% (29)	42% (78)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.26 (80)	1.7 (99)	34% (39)	31% (77)	.38 (98)	6% (80)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	12	47% (42)	38% (34)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.22 (63)	1.7 (104)	35% (19)	28% (34)	.21 (31)	6% (77)	2.1 (85)
BAY Offense	13	48% (75)	48% (14)	17.2	27.8	227.1	8.2	13.2	29 (12)	9 (48)	.37 (21)	1.6 (49)	29% (29)	36% (24)	.37 (53)	6% (55)	2 (91)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 16.68 #16
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.79 #48
Auburn's Defense Rating: 0.11 #10
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.6 #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #59
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4 #16

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 16.68 Baylor: 9.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 11.6 Baylor: 1.4

Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 9.53 #30
Baylor's Offense Rating: 22.18 #20
Baylor's Defense Rating: 9.52 #43
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #71
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #32
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #110

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 31
Baylor 26

Projected Total Points: 57

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 31.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 32.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/29	Baylor	24	Auburn	38	Auburn -1.5	Auburn	57.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Baylor	0	0	1 Overs
Auburn	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#16) AUB at (#30) BAY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	BAY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#16	#30
SP+SP+	#29	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#78
OffenseOff	#95	#61
DefenseDef	#48	#100
Spec TeamsST	#91	#5
TalentTal	#12	#24
Blue ChipsBC%	#12	#49

Auburn Notes(12/2) DC D. J. Durkin will remain on Golesh staff in '26
(11/30) Hired Alex Golesh (S Florida, former Tenn OC).
(11/20) QB1 Fr Deuce Knight will start vs Mercer, Bama
(11/2) HC Hugh Freeze fired after UK loss
(11/1) Home L to UK w/ 241 total yds. Freeze done
(10/31) Ashton Daniels will start vs UK, Arnold benched
(10/25) WR Coleman & Singleton both hurt vs Ark
(10/24) QB1 battle in week 9, Arnold still the starter. Yikes
(10/23) Auburn on a 3-11 run vs P4 teams since '24
(10/22) K A McPherson bad, longest FG is 34 yards
(10/20) Top OL Center Connor Lew out for season (ACL)
(10/13) RB2 Damari Alston left team, will transfer
Auburn Injury Report

Baylor Notes(11/29) 1-5 finish to miss a bowl. Ugly scene in Waco
(11/25) HC Aranda will return in '26, $ decision, not popular
(11/16) Def is non-competitive. Aranda feels done here
(10/28) 2 straight L's now 4-4, Aranda on hot seat
(10/22) DL is one of worst in CFB, is worst in P4
(10/6) TE M Trigg is best TE in CFB. Incredible weapon
(10/5) Huge comeback W over K St, a season turner. Bravo
(10/4) Turnovers a major issue, into Oct 110th, 2 in 1Q today
(9/21) Tough L vs ASU, Def played better, Robertson great
(8/29) Def tackling is atrocious. DB's cannot run fit
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
Baylor Injury Report

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#95	#100
SuccessSuc	#40	#38
ExplosiveExp	#71	#102
PPAPPA	#42	#74
PowerPwr	#48	#43
SP+SP+	#59	#110
Pts POPPO	#110	#77
HavocHav	#94	#83

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
Run GameRun	#46	#115
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#13
Run ExplRExp	#89	#92
PPAExp	#55	#64
Run BlockR Blk	#55	-
OL YdsOLY	#23	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#90
TackleTak	-	#38

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	BAY Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#45
Pass SuccessPSuc	#67	#78
Pass ExplPExl	#39	#99
PPAExp	#45	#80
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#74	#124
F7 HavocF7	#67	#84
DB HavocDB	#113	#80

Baylor on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#48
SuccessSuc	#23	#20
ExplosiveExp	#49	#74
PPAPPA	#29	#21
PowerPwr	#20	#10
SP+SP+	#32	#16
Pts POPPO	#30	#25
HavocHav	#17	#79

Baylor Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#92	#11
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#19
Run ExplRExp	#50	#44
PPAExp	#41	#7
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	#43	#6
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#20
TackleTak	-	#65

Baylor Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
CategoryCat	BAY Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#71	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#34
Pass ExplPExl	#49	#104
PPAExp	#21	#63
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#84	#46
F7 HavocF7	#9	#81
DB HavocDB	#55	#77

Program Comparison
BAY 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Auburn 1.5 (57.5)
Auburn won at Baylor this year (38-24)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Baylor last year (38-24)

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	136	215	63%	1309	6	2	6.1
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	68	119	57%	797	3	2	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeremiah Cobb	175	969	5	5.5	46
Jackson Arnold (Tr)	112	311	8	2.8	56
Ashton Daniels (Tr)	63	280	2	4.4	26
Deuce Knight	13	178	4	13.7	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Coleman	57	725	5	12.7	46
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)	58	534	3	9.2	48
Malcolm Simmons	25	457	2	18.3	91
Perry Thompson	17	154	0	9.1	34

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)	84	17	9	7	1
Robert Woodyard Jr.	67	7	2	5	1
Kaleb Harris	50	2	1	0	1
Keyron Crawford	36	10	5	10	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xavier Atkins (Tr)	84	17	9	7	1
Keyron Crawford	36	10	5	10	0
Chris Murray (Tr)	15	4	4	1	0
Keldric Faulk	27	5	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kayin Lee	31	0	0	0	4
Jay Crawford	15	1	0	0	4
Keldric Faulk	27	5	2	6	4

BAY's OC Jake Spavital (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sawyer Robertson	304	503	60%	3681	31	12	7.3
Nate Bennett	5	7	71%	34	0	0	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bryson Washington	154	788	6	5.1	41
Caden Knighten	104	469	1	4.5	49
Michael Turner	65	320	1	4.9	40
Joseph Dodds	26	104	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Cameron	69	872	9	12.6	48
Michael Trigg	50	694	6	13.9	42
Ashtyn Hawkins	53	621	0	11.7	41
Kole Wilson (Tr)	44	591	5	13.4	64

View Baylor's Full Roster

BAY's DC Matt Powledge (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Devyn Bobby	77	2	0	0	2
Jacob Redding	53	1	0	0	2
Kyland Reed	50	2	0	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)	24	6	4	4	0
Jackie Marshall	30	6	2	0	0
Keaton Thomas	99	7	1	1	3
Travion Barnes (Tr)	11	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Levar Thornton Jr.	27	1	0	7
DJ Coleman	41	4	3	4
Caldra Williford (Tr)	16	1	0	4