Auburn at Baylor - 2025 Matchup Preview
Auburn logo Auburn Tigers at Baylor BearsBaylor logo
Friday, August 29th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Auburn -1.5 (57.5) (-115)  Open: -1.5 | 57.5
Auburn 38 - Baylor: 24

 
Tigers (3 - 0) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 37 - 14 (38 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Our Line: Auburn -9.5   (SP+ AUB -6.5)
Projected Score: AUB: 34 - BAY: 24 (58)
AUB Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
AUB Travel: 684 miles
Bears (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Dave Aranda (31 - 29)
Avg Score : 38 - 30 (33 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#55)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 6) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
 
Auburn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Auburn at Baylor-1.557.5W 38 - 24OY
Sat 9/6 Auburn vs Ball State-43.052.5W 42 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 Auburn vs South Alabama-26.556.5W 31 - 15UN
Sat 9/20 Auburn at Oklahoma+6.548.5
Sat 9/27 Auburn at Texas A&M+1
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Auburn vs Georgia-0
Sat 10/18 Auburn vs Missouri-2.5
Sat 10/25 Auburn at Arkansas-6
Sat 11/1 Auburn vs Kentucky-18
Sat 11/8 Auburn at Vanderbilt-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Auburn vs Mercer-48
Sat 11/29 Auburn vs Alabama+2

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Baylor's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Baylor vs Auburn+1.557.5L 24 - 38ON
Sat 9/6 Baylor at SMU+3.065.5W 48 - 45OY
Sat 9/13 Baylor vs Samford-51.565.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/20 Baylor vs Arizona State-1.560.5
Sat 9/27 Baylor at Oklahoma State-14.5
Sat 10/4 Baylor vs Kansas State-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Baylor at TCU+8.5
Sat 10/25 Baylor at Cincinnati+4
Sat 11/1 Baylor vs UCF-8
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Baylor vs Utah+6
Sat 11/22 Baylor at Arizona-0.5
Sat 11/29 Baylor vs Houston-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 7, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Baylor's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#33 (.33)55% (14)3757% (14)3.61 (21)24252% (25)1745.63 (8)#58 (.11)31% (16)1423% (3)39% (64)3.38 (63)63.70.31
BAY#50 (.26)44% (59)3841% (90)3.26 (39)14947% (46)3684.09 (64)#98 (.19)45% (105)3047% (108)41% (77)4.23 (96)54.71.31.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
BAY#29 (.25)47% (23)46% (37)3.19 (43)17448% (14)2274.28 (30)#74 (.18)39% (38)38% (13)42% (78)3.85 (77)58.111.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Offense3373855.3%5.630.3244162421745.861%39%57%52%12%.33
BAY Defense33022.544.9%4.231.7 - - - - - 64%34%47%41%15%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Defense3142431.3%3.381 - - - - - 47%53%23%39%19%.11
BAY Offense3383344.4%4.091.328517149368437%62%41%47%11%.26

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Auburn330:3223.753%100%763.70.318.73.7128.6
Baylor331:082837%53%5.354.71.31.74.31.7030
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Offense361% (14)57% (14)41.72425.810 (10).35 (23)3.61 (21)96% (12)9% (69)0.94 (75)
BAY Defense364% (132)47% (108) - - - - .16 (105)3.28 (121)100% (127)9% (88)0.9 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Defense347% (48)23% (3) - - - - -.1 (19)1.89 (6)88% (118)15% (14)1.14 (104)
BAY Offense337% (128)41% (90)37149.345 (62).11 (80)3.26 (39)73% (65)7% (30)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Offense339% (123)52% (25)16.724.7173.7710.44 (72)0 (1).3 (66)1.2 (128)18% (2)30% (77).16 (108)4% (35)1.5 (121)
BAY Defense334% (4)41% (77) - - - - - - 4 (12).32 (102)1.5 (50)26% (126)24% (40).19 (54)6% (56)1.5 (14)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Defense353% (91)39% (64) - - - - - - 1 (87).3 (101)1.9 (120)39% (11)27% (55).3 (79)3% (120)2.3 (112)
BAY Offense362% (8)47% (46)29.747.33687.812.410 (7)2 (60).35 (59)1.6 (57)30% (64)39% (28).52 (36)5% (60)1.9 (84)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 32.06 #6
Auburn's Offense Rating: 28.70 #8
Auburn's Defense Rating: -5.55 #8
2025 Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Auburn's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
Auburn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #19
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 32.06   Baylor: 14.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 16.9   Baylor: 10.3




Baylor's Power Ratings
Baylor's Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Baylor's Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Baylor's Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Baylor's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
Baylor's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Baylor's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Baylor's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Auburn Scoring
Offense: 37 PPG
Offense on Road: 38
Defense: 14 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Auburn's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Auburn 34
Baylor 24


Total Points: 58

Baylor Scoring
Offense: 38 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Baylor's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/29Baylor24Auburn38AuburnAuburn -1.5Auburn57.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Baylor001 Overs
Auburn110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#6) Auburn Info
Power Rating: 32.06 #6
Offense Rating: 28.70 #8
Defense Rating: -5.55 #8
Overall SP+ Rating: 16.9 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.2 #29
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.2 #13
Talent Rating: 988.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #12
Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
Great Offense Success Rate of 55%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.63 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Good Pass Success 52%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 31%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Auburn Notes
(8/29) Arnold much better, run off great, pass D awful
(8/16) WTF is calling plays? Hate what I'm hearing
(7/16) WR2 (LY) Simmons arrested on serious charges
(7/8) Freeze is 2-6 at home in SEC games
(6/6) OL returns 5/5, plus portal adds. PFF top 10 unit
(5/23) DE Faulk a star, duo w/ Crawford top unit
(5/23) Aub was 1-3 in 1 score games LY (1-3 in '23)
(5/23) Safeties Harris & Smith a top duo in CFB
(5/11) SEC most exp'd line, 67% returning, 33% portals
(4/4) QB Arnold (OU) likely starter, Daniels/Knight #2?

Auburn Highlights
Auburn in Undefeated

Auburn has Really Good Running Game (#11)
Auburn offense is efficent (#14)
Auburn has a top Offensive Line (#21)
Auburn offense is good in red zone (#8)
Auburn offense is good on 3rd downs
Auburn does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#13)

Auburn Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Auburn has a really good defense (#16)
Auburn has a good run defense (#3)
Auburn Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#9)
Auburn Defensive Line is very good (#6)
Auburn Front 7 is disruptive (#14)
Auburn has a great TO Margin (#11)

Auburn Deficiencies
Auburn offense is not Explosive (#125)
Auburn gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#131)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBAYAUB
OverallOver#66#32
OffenseOff#56#33
DefenseDef#79#50
Special TeamsST#101#83
PassingPass#77#94
RushingRush#92#9
Run BlockRBLK#23#20
Pass BlockPBLK#71#63
Route RunningWR Rt#45#61
TacklingTkl#77#91
Run DefenseR Def#105#6
Pass Rush DefPRush#93#36
Coverage DefCov#16#104

Rematch from Week 1
Auburn 1.5 (57.5)
Auburn won at Baylor this year (38-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in McLane Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AUB | BAY
Depth Chart: AUB | BAY
Rosters: AUB | BAY
(#40) Baylor Info
Power Rating: 14.865 #40
Offense Rating: 20.81 #29
Defense Rating: 6.38 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3 #35
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #70
Talent Rating: 902.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Avg Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.23 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Baylor Notes
(8/11) #2 RB Pendergrass out for season (foot inj)
(7/30) LB T Barnes (FIU) was CUSA DPOY in '24
(5/13) OC Spavital was good hire, offense took off LY
(5/13) OL has top 20 returning prod w/o portals
(5/13) DE/Pass rush? Winston & Fobbs-White portal adds
(5/13) Very productive LB portal adds along w/ S Turner
(5/13) Def was Avg LY. 11 portal adds. Return a lot
(3/21) QB Robertson back, best of B12. Have depth
(3/21) RBs Washington/Pendergrass back. Great duo
(3/21) WR #1 Cameron back, add Prentice (Bama).

Baylor Highlights
Baylor defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Baylor Deficiencies
Baylor has a bad defense (#105)
Baylor Does Not Stuff Runs (#122)
Baylor has a bad defensive line (#121)


  
Auburn's OC Derrick Nix
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jackson Arnold (Tr)486970%501407.3
Deuce Knight2540%20004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Cobb4631446.846
Jackson Arnold (Tr)3519245.527
Damari Alston168415.311
Durell Robinson (Tr)357119.054
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr. (Tr)13149211.530
Cam Coleman10149114.932
Horatio Fields (Tr)108818.814
Malcolm Simmons563012.626

View Auburn's Full Roster
Auburn's DC D. J. Durkin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford165310
Xavier Atkins (Tr)124210
Kaleb Harris121000
Sylvester Smith111000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyron Crawford165310
Xavier Atkins (Tr)124210
Jared Smith33200
Keldric Faulk82112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keldric Faulk82112
Demarcus Riddick61101
Champ Anthony20001

Baylor's OC Jake Spavital
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sawyer Robertson8413562%10701027.9
Nate Bennett5771%34004.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bryson Washington6630444.631
Caden Knighten238913.917
Michael Turner63606.013
Sawyer Robertson131200.916
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ashtyn Hawkins17257015.136
Josh Cameron15244316.348
Kole Wilson (Tr)13182014.057
Michael Trigg13151111.620

View Baylor's Full Roster
Baylor's DC Matt Powledge
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keaton Thomas301000
Devyn Bobby160000
Jacob Redding120000
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emar'Rion Winston (Tr)63200
Kendrick Simpkins62110
Micah Gifford31100
Travion Barnes (Tr)111100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DJ Coleman101012
Taz Williams Jr.00001
Tyler Turner (Tr)60001