NC State at Wake Forest - 2025 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest logo
Thursday, September 11th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
NC State -7.5 (52.5) (-298)  Open: 0.0
NC State 34 - Wake Forest: 24  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#64)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
WAKE 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Wake Forest -5.5  (SP+ WAKE -2)

Projected Score: NCST: 23 - WAKE: 29 (52)
NCST Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 89 miles
Demon Deacons (8 - 4) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 NC State vs East Carolina-12.558.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-3.053.0W 35 - 31OY
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-7.552.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+3.057.5L 33 - 45ON
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-10.057.5L 21 - 23UN
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-42.561.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+23.559.5L 7 - 36UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+5.552.5L 34 - 53ON
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech+4.558.5W 48 - 36OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.554.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State+7.058.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-7.048.5W 42 - 19OY
Fri 12/19 NC State vs Memphis-6.056.5W 31 - 7UY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.053.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (52)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (43)2464.69 (10)#102 (.21)39% (41)27.238% (22)40% (55)3.7 (73)53.811.2
WAKE#91 (.13)38% (117)26.839% (107)2.74 (108)15737% (115)2323.16 (119)#7 (.02)35% (10)21.537% (13)33% (8)3.19 (32)68.91.71.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)44% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)39% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
WAKE Defense1221.517.334.9%3.191.3 - - - - - 46%52%37%33%18%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.3%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
WAKE Offense1226.828.337.9%3.161.7193891572324.550%48%39%37%16%.13

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:4720.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
Wake Forest1228:5218.738%55%7.368.91.71.37.32.1230.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (32)2.94 (68)73% (63)10% (98)1.1 (19)
WAKE Defense1246% (23)37% (13) - - - - -.01 (13)2.47 (11)63% (16)12% (12)0.89 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (4)38% (22) - - - - .12 (78)2.87 (64)65% (26)8% (108)1.09 (122)
WAKE Offense1250% (62)39% (107)34.8156.84.521 (49).11 (70)2.74 (108)77% (36)10% (77)1.16 (10)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (43)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (31)31% (67)32% (48).4 (34)6% (54)2.1 (53)
WAKE Defense1252% (108)33% (8) - - - - - - 4 (100).09 (10)1.5 (55)36% (14)27% (25).16 (15)7% (46)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (132)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (91)1.7 (118)35% (21)31% (90).38 (112)7% (46)2.1 (83)
WAKE Offense1248% (74)37% (115)17.731.1232.37.513.215 (106)10 (34).22 (84)1.7 (26)33% (89)27% (105).28 (78)6% (84)2.2 (15)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 6.88  #51
NC State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
NC State's Defense Rating: 10.10  #80
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.9  #61
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 6.88   Wake Forest: 10.265

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 2.9   Wake Forest: 4.4




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 10.265  #39
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 5.97  #86
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: -5.16  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #56
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Wake Forest 29
NC State 23


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 25
Wake Forest 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Wake Forest 31
NC State 23

Total Points: 54
Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/11Wake Forest24NC State34NC State -7.5NC State52.5Over
202410/05NC State30Wake Forest34NC State -4Wake Forest52.5Over
202311/11Wake Forest6NC State26Wake Forest -0.5NC State42.5Under
202211/05NC State30Wake Forest21Wake Forest -3NC State54.0Under
202111/13Wake Forest45NC State42Wake Forest -1Wake Forest65.0Over
202009/19NC State45Wake Forest42Wake Forest -2NC State54.0Over
201911/02Wake Forest44NC State10Wake Forest -7.5Wake Forest60.0Under
201811/08NC State23Wake Forest27NC State -17Wake Forest69.0Under
201711/18Wake Forest30NC State24Wake Forest -3Wake Forest62.0Under
201610/01NC State33Wake Forest16NC State -9NC State48.0Over
201510/24Wake Forest17NC State35NC State -8.5NC State43.5Over
201411/15NC State42Wake Forest13NC State -12NC State0
201310/05Wake Forest28NC State13NC State -8Wake Forest0
201211/10NC State37Wake Forest6
201109/10Wake Forest34NC State27
201011/13NC State38Wake Forest3
200910/03Wake Forest30NC State24
200811/15NC State21Wake Forest17
200711/17Wake Forest38NC State18
200610/14NC State23Wake Forest25
200510/22Wake Forest27NC State19
200410/02NC State27Wake Forest21
200309/06Wake Forest38NC State24
200209/14NC State32Wake Forest13
200110/06Wake Forest14NC State17
200011/24NC State32Wake Forest14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest1266 Overs
NC State1475 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams19 - 78 - 55 - 33 - 2
Road Teams7 - 195 - 82 - 33 - 5

(#51) NCST at (#39) WAKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTWAKE
Power RatePwr #51 #39
SP+SP+ #61 #56
Perf GradeGrade #73 #62
OffenseOff #51 #113
DefenseDef #90 #18
Spec TeamsST #78 #10
TalentTal #43 #35
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #65
NC State Notes
(11/21) Fr QB W Wilson got designed runs in FSU game
(11/5) RB Jayden Scott (Fr) huge vs GT. Name to watch
(10/12) Def really beat up & can't compete. Off regressing
(10/9) DB injury issues, nickel down to 5th option (ND wk)
(9/30) Run Def mauled by VT? Run Off awful, horrific loss
(9/30) Things could go south in a hurry for this program
(9/20) Def horrible, torched by Duke. Bailey TOs killed
(9/11) Run Off good vs Wake, Def bad but rallied
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
NC State Injury Report
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffWAKE Def
Perf GradePerf #51 #18
SuccessSuc #52 #10
ExplosiveExp #12 #45
PPAPPA #20 #7
PowerPwr #28 #14
SP+SP+ #47 #34
Pts POPPO #10 #32
HavocHav #73 #20
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #57 #51
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #13
Run ExplRExp #19 #31
PPAExp #32 #13
Run BlockR Blk #67 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #11
Stuff RateStuff #112 #4
TackleTak -  #83
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #79 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #8
Pass ExplPExl #31 #55
PPAExp #25 #10
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #56 #20
F7 HavocF7 #98 #12
DB HavocDB #54 #46
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffNCST Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #90
SuccessSuc #117 #41
ExplosiveExp #5 #134
PPAPPA #91 #102
PowerPwr #86 #80
SP+SP+ #82 #73
Pts POPPO #119 #73
HavocHav #86 #84
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffNCST Def
Run GameRun #117 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #22
Run ExplRExp #10 #122
PPAExp #70 #78
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #64
Stuff RateStuff #74 #65
TackleTak -  #56
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffNCST Def
Pass GamePass #104 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #55
Pass ExplPExl #26 #118
PPAExp #84 #91
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #68
F7 HavocF7 #77 #108
DB HavocDB #84 #46
Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 75°
Rematch from Week 3
NC State 7.5 (52.5)
NC State won at Wake Forest this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat NC State last year (34-30)
NC State beat Wake Forest in 2023 (26-6)
NC State beat Wake Forest in 2022 (30-21)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Lex Thomas2729%18002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers16093965.965
Jayden Scott10659545.669
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrell Anderson39629516.175
Justin Joly49489710.059
Wesley Grimes31458314.848
Noah Rogers31413213.348

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Fordham14310443
Kenny Soares Jr. (Tr)804162
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
Cian Slone (Tr)6272161
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tra Thomas (Tr)246450
Caden Fordham14310443
Travali Price225441
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)4183133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall5000115
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II (Tr)291006

WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)17128959%2169977.5
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)11650474.343
Ty Clark III5823234.015
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)34538315.893
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)25382215.351
Micah Mays Jr.18302216.852

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen956107
Davaughn Patterson784039
Dylan Hazen689053
Aiden Hall667023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515780
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)378680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)328440
Mateen Ibirogba214230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson784039
Karon Prunty (Tr)341018
Nick Andersen956107