NC State at Wake Forest Game Matchup
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWake Forest logo
Thursday, September 11th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
BB&T Field - Winston-Salem, NC  (ACC)

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)
WAKE 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: NC State -10.5   (SP+ NCST -9.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 36 - WAKE: 26 (59)
NCST Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NCST Travel: 89 miles
Demon Deacons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 33 (27 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.4 - 7.6 (#112)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
NC State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 NC State vs East Carolina-12.50.0
Sat 9/6 NC State vs Virginia-8.5
Thu 9/11 NC State at Wake Forest-10.5
Sat 9/20 NC State at Duke+2.5
Sat 9/27 NC State vs Virginia Tech-3
Sat 10/4 NC State vs Campbell-29.5
Sat 10/11 NC State at Notre Dame+22.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 NC State at Pittsburgh+1
Sat 11/1 NC State vs Georgia Tech-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 NC State at Miami+16.5
Fri 11/21 NC State vs Florida State-1
Sat 11/29 NC State vs North Carolina-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.50.0
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-16.5
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+11.5
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+15
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State+6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+18
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+17
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+9
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina+6.5
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-12.5
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+15.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#26 (.25)45% (36)28.544% (68)3.24 (36)13047% (20)2153.97 (61)#86 (.19)41% (59)30.239% (31)43% (87)3.78 (67)451.71.4
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)25.743% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)32.548% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WAKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1328.530.845.1%3.971.7193451302154.447%52%44%47%19%.25
WAKE Defense1232.534.750.7%4.121.4 - - - - - 44%56%48%53%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1330.235.540.9%3.781.4 - - - - - 47%53%39%43%20%.19
WAKE Offense1225.726.641.9%3.21.8223721312403.648%52%43%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:1018.637%56%4.8451.71.46.21.8228.9
Wake Forest1228:5121.839%64%5.145.91.81.44.91.7229
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (89)44% (68)29.6130.34.421 (59).15 (56)3.24 (36)69% (92)13% (127)0.98 (59)
WAKE Defense1244% (6)48% (110) - - - - .18 (101)3.13 (88)80% (112)8% (110)0.96 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1347% (33)39% (31) - - - - .2 (111)3.07 (83)76% (86)12% (24)1.28 (134)
WAKE Offense1248% (86)43% (79)36.4131.43.618 (78).05 (106)3 (79)81% (18)10% (70)0.92 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1352% (48)47% (20)18.228.1214.87.711.818 (68)12 (85).36 (24)1.6 (45)30% (35)36% (24).57 (5)6% (83)2.2 (19)
WAKE Defense1256% (129)53% (133) - - - - - - 11 (52).36 (116)1.3 (2)26% (130)40% (132).41 (106)4% (131)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1353% (106)43% (87) - - - - - - 8 (93).19 (47)1.5 (22)33% (49)30% (65).33 (83)8% (16)2.3 (120)
WAKE Offense1252% (50)41% (75)20.733.6240.17.211.617 (79)13 (103).23 (83)1.5 (115)31% (63)28% (102).15 (125)7% (93)1.9 (103)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 7.01 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 7.01   Wake Forest: -4.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   Wake Forest: -4.6




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -4.4 #91
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 10.88 #88
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 20.08 #98
2025 Talent Rating: 750.00 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #81
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #78
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 36
Wake Forest 26

Projected Total Points: 59
Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 25.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.6
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05NC State30Wake Forest34Wake ForestNC State -4Wake Forest52.5Over
202311/11Wake Forest6NC State26NC StateWake Forest -0.5NC State42.5Under
202211/05NC State30Wake Forest21NC StateWake Forest -3NC State54.0Under
202111/13Wake Forest45NC State42Wake ForestWake Forest -1Wake Forest65.0Over
202009/19NC State45Wake Forest42NC StateWake Forest -2NC State54.0Over
201911/02Wake Forest44NC State10Wake ForestWake Forest -7.5Wake Forest60.0Under
201811/08NC State23Wake Forest27Wake ForestNC State -17Wake Forest69.0Under
201711/18Wake Forest30NC State24Wake ForestWake Forest -3Wake Forest62.0Under
201610/01NC State33Wake Forest16NC StateNC State -9NC State48.0Over
201510/24Wake Forest17NC State35NC StateNC State -8.5NC State43.5Over
201411/15NC State42Wake Forest13NC StateNC State -12NC State0
201310/05Wake Forest28NC State13Wake ForestNC State -8Wake Forest0
201211/10NC State37Wake Forest6NC State
201109/10Wake Forest34NC State27Wake Forest
201011/13NC State38Wake Forest3NC State
200910/03Wake Forest30NC State24Wake Forest
200811/15NC State21Wake Forest17NC State
200711/17Wake Forest38NC State18Wake Forest
200610/14NC State23Wake Forest25Wake Forest
200510/22Wake Forest27NC State19Wake Forest
200410/02NC State27Wake Forest21NC State
200309/06Wake Forest38NC State24Wake Forest
200209/14NC State32Wake Forest13NC State
200110/06Wake Forest14NC State17NC State
200011/24NC State32Wake Forest14NC State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest1265 Overs
NC State1365 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams19 - 68 - 45 - 33 - 1
Road Teams6 - 194 - 81 - 33 - 5

(#46) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.01 #46
Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success
NC State     Ratings Matchup     Wake Forest
Power #46
#91
Off #41
#88
Def #48
#98
Talent #46
#59
SP+ #42
#81
SP+ Off #36
#78
SP+ Def #54
#87

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat NC State last year (34-30)
NC State beat Wake Forest in 2023 (26-6)
NC State beat Wake Forest in 2022 (30-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NCST | WAKE
Depth Chart: NCST | WAKE
Rosters: NCST | WAKE
(#91) Wake Forest Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.4 #91
Offense Rating: 10.88 #88
Defense Rating: 20.08 #98
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #81
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #87
Talent Rating: 750.00 #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #61
Expected Record: 4.4 - 7.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.2 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 51%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.12 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 48%
Awful Pass Def Success 53%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Wake Forest Notes
(5/15) 50% of DL exp is from G5 portals.
(5/15) Can L Webb (UTSA) be a lockdown CB?
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) QBs likely Ashford (SC), #2 Purdie (Char)
(3/22) Def awful LY. Lots of portals Looks rough
(3/19) RBs top 2 back, Claiborne 1K good baller
(3/19) WRs rebuild. 2 Portal adds (Wazzu) help
(3/19) OL complete rebuild. 6 portals, 4 from Wazzu
(3/19) New OC Ezell only 1 yr exp (LY @ S Al)
(3/19) New DC Hazelton was good until MSU/Tucker


  
NC State's OC Kurt Roper
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey19630265%241217108.0
Lex Thomas5863%65118.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daylan Smothers8957166.453
CJ Bailey9927952.831
Lex Thomas1909.09
Coleson Fields3802.73
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Justin Joly43661415.440
Noah Rogers35478113.775
Wesley Grimes24319113.330
Daylan Smothers19263213.872

View NC State's Full Roster
NC State's DC D. J. Eliot
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sean Brown9593131
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013
Caden Fordham504162
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cian Slone (Tr)4910850
Travali Price379430
Sean Brown9593131
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)419310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devon Marshall331007
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)691016
Brian Nelson II (Tr)532013

Wake Forest's OC Rob Ezell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)10020050%18021069.0
Robby Ashford (Tr)233272%3242010.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne2281048114.660
Tate Carney8233564.118
Robby Ashford (Tr)4122725.538
Jaydn Girard1303.03
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)31397512.842
Demond Claiborne23254211.044
Micah Mays Jr.16218213.641
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)11191117.461

View Wake Forest's Full Roster
Wake Forest's DC Scottie Hazelton
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Hazen786130
Davaughn Patterson744003
Quincy Bryant483020
Langston Hardy (Tr)447430
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)4110682
Langston Hardy (Tr)447430
Zach Lohavichan123200
Dylan Hazen786130
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson744003
Lardarius Webb Jr. (Tr)402003
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)4110682