Vanderbilt at Tennessee - 2025 Matchup Preview
Vanderbilt logo   Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers  Tennessee logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Tennessee -2.0 (66.5) (-140)  Open: -3.5 | 64.5
Vanderbilt 45 - Tennessee: 24  (SEC)

 
Commodores (10 - 3) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (16 - 33)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#15)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Vanderbilt -2.5  (SP+ VAN -5.5)
Projected Score: VAN: 34 - TENN: 32 (66)
TENN Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
VAN Travel: 162 miles, 1 hrs behind
Volunteers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (37 - 14)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (42 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Vanderbilt's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Vanderbilt vs Charleston Southern-37.549.5W 45 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech+2.546.5W 44 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+3.048.5W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/20 Vanderbilt vs Georgia State-27.553.5W 70 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Vanderbilt vs Utah State-23.557.5W 55 - 35ON
Sat 10/4 Vanderbilt at Alabama+13.558.5L 14 - 30UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Vanderbilt vs LSU-1.548.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Vanderbilt vs Missouri-3.052.5W 17 - 10UY
Sat 11/1 Vanderbilt at Texas+3.548.5L 31 - 34OY
Sat 11/8 Vanderbilt vs Auburn-6.046.5W 45 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky-7.053.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 11/29 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+2.066.5W 45 - 24OY
Wed 12/31 Vanderbilt vs Iowa-3.047.5L 27 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tennessee vs Syracuse-13.553.5W 45 - 26OY
Sat 9/6 Tennessee vs East Tennessee State-39.558.5W 72 - 17OY
Sat 9/13 Tennessee vs Georgia+3.550.5L 41 - 44OY
Sat 9/20 Tennessee vs UAB-39.569.5W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Tennessee at Mississippi State-7.563.5W 41 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Tennessee vs Arkansas-10.068.5W 34 - 31UN
Sat 10/18 Tennessee at Alabama+8.560.5L 20 - 37UN
Sat 10/25 Tennessee at Kentucky-7.555.5W 56 - 34OY
Sat 11/1 Tennessee vs Oklahoma-3.055.5L 27 - 33ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Tennessee vs New Mexico State-41.559.5W 42 - 9UN
Sat 11/22 Tennessee at Florida-3.557.5W 31 - 11UY
Sat 11/29 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-2.066.5L 24 - 45ON
Tue 12/30 Tennessee vs Illinois-3.062.5L 28 - 30UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN#76 (.17)42% (75)38.542% (93)2.8 (105)12943% (53)1664.25 (34)#111 (.25)47% (121)22.846% (96)48% (125)4.22 (109)48.30.51.1
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)39.848% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)28.836% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Offense1338.53342.2%4.250.5172951291663.958%42%42%43%15%.17
TENN Defense1328.82937.6%3.031.6 - - - - - 48%51%36%39%21%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Defense1322.82346.9%4.221.1 - - - - - 49%51%46%48%16%.25
TENN Offense1339.842.347.4%4.021.2234482272215.157%43%48%47%12%.23

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Vanderbilt1328:3916.644%54%548.30.51.14.81.7431.3
Tennessee1329:3523.347%61%8.166.81.21.67.22.2231.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Offense1358% (18)42% (93)33.1129.23.916 (90).06 (104)2.8 (105)83% (10)8% (41)0.87 (116)
TENN Defense1348% (42)36% (9) - - - - .01 (17)2.61 (17)62% (15)14% (5)0.98 (65)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Defense1349% (47)46% (96) - - - - .12 (70)2.98 (62)77% (88)10% (76)0.89 (30)
TENN Offense1357% (23)48% (23)44.7226.85.134 (10).18 (39)3.4 (13)86% (2)8% (33)0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Offense1342% (115)43% (53)12.821.8166.37.61318 (68)4 (1).33 (33)1.7 (37)33% (108)31% (74).32 (75)7% (96)2.1 (64)
TENN Defense1351% (87)39% (48) - - - - - - 12 (39).16 (32)1.5 (38)33% (46)31% (74).33 (80)7% (39)2 (44)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Defense1351% (90)48% (125) - - - - - - 9 (76).37 (120)1.5 (33)29% (111)36% (122).45 (117)7% (48)2.1 (72)
TENN Offense1343% (111)47% (19)18.228.7221.27.712.221 (51)7 (26).29 (51)1.5 (113)29% (25)34% (41).38 (50)4% (13)1.9 (114)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 18.41  #12
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 27.73  #2
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 9.32  #41
2025 Talent Rating: 822.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Vanderbilt's 2025 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.3  #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #5
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4  #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 18.41   Tennessee: 16.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 20.3   Tennessee: 15.0




Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 16.83  #27
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 24.25  #15
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 10.59  #48
2025 Talent Rating: 910.00  #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 53  #10
Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.0  #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #7
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #63

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 34
Tennessee 32


Projected Total Points: 66
Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 29

Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Tennessee24Vanderbilt45Tennessee -2.0Vanderbilt66.5Over
202411/30Vanderbilt23Tennessee36Tennessee -9.5Tennessee45.5Over
202311/25Tennessee48Vanderbilt24Tennessee -27.0Vanderbilt58.0Over
202211/26Vanderbilt0Tennessee56Tennessee -14Tennessee63.5Under
202111/27Tennessee45Vanderbilt21Tennessee -33Vanderbilt65.0Over
202012/12Vanderbilt17Tennessee42Tennessee -15Tennessee51.0Over
201911/30Tennessee28Vanderbilt10Tennessee -23Vanderbilt48.0Under
201811/24Vanderbilt38Tennessee13Vanderbilt -3.5Vanderbilt51.5Under
201711/25Tennessee24Vanderbilt42Tennessee -2.5Vanderbilt45.5Over
201611/26Vanderbilt45Tennessee34Tennessee -10Vanderbilt50.0Over
201511/28Tennessee53Vanderbilt28Tennessee -17.5Tennessee41.0Over
201411/29Vanderbilt17Tennessee24Tennessee -14.5Vanderbilt0
201311/23Tennessee10Vanderbilt14Tennessee -2.5Vanderbilt0
201211/17Vanderbilt41Tennessee18
201111/19Tennessee27Vanderbilt21
201011/20Vanderbilt10Tennessee24
200911/21Tennessee31Vanderbilt16
200811/22Vanderbilt10Tennessee20
200711/17Tennessee25Vanderbilt24
200611/18Vanderbilt10Tennessee39
200511/19Tennessee24Vanderbilt28
200411/20Vanderbilt33Tennessee38
200311/22Tennessee48Vanderbilt0
200111/24Tennessee38Vanderbilt0
200011/24Vanderbilt26Tennessee28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tennessee1848 Overs
Vanderbilt793 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 134 - 92 - 62 - 3
Road Teams13 - 129 - 43 - 26 - 2

(#12) VAN at (#27) TENN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVANTENN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #12 #27
SP+SP+ #11 #19
Perf GradeGrade #27 #19
OffenseOff #24 #15
DefenseDef #59 #55
Spec TeamsST #16 #32
TalentTal #47 #20
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #10
Vanderbilt Notes
(11/30) Outrushed Tenn 314-83. Incredible season, CFP worthy
(11/28) HC Lea extended w/ new 6 year deal
(10/18) Ran all over LUS (239, 5.3 pyc). Pavia a dawg
(10/7) Hoping books sleep on Vandy after Bama L, good team
(9/30) Off Success is #1 in CFB into Bama game (5 games)
(9/21) Pavia incredible, Dores hot start. Run Off great
(9/21) Vandy is serious. Killing teams, mauling Rush Off
(5/26) Off should improve w/ better OL, more exp
(5/26) HC Lea's new building plan working
(5/15) OL bad LY, 1/5 back. 7 portal adds, 3 starters
(5/15) DL added 6 portals, both lines big focus TY
(5/15) LBs are core of D, exp'd & very productive
Vanderbilt Injury Report
Tennessee Notes
(12/30) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (27-57)
(12/10) Hiring DC Jim Knowles (PSU/OSU). Good hire?
(12/8) Fired DC Tim Banks after 3 years, Def awful in '25
(11/30) Outrushed by Vandy 314-83. Vols Def fell off a cliff
(11/30) Zero wins vs teams w/ a winning record in '25
(11/16) CB Boo Carter no longer with team. Again.
(10/30) Vols have beaten 3 SEC teams all w/ 0 wins
(10/20) Mistakes killed vs Bama, 10 flags, pick six, safety
(10/20) OG'd Bama, Rush Off good, tackling was nightmare
(9/15) Great perf vs UGA, brutal loss. Off brilliant
(9/15) Aguliar has been good, WR Brazzell a great one
(9/1) Starting CB McCoy out early season (ACL rec)
Tennessee Injury Report
Vanderbilt on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTENN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #24 #55
SuccessSuc #75 #17
ExplosiveExp #108 #58
PPAPPA #76 #13
PowerPwr #2 #48
SP+SP+ #5 #63
Pts POPPO #34 #10
HavocHav #52 #5
Vanderbilt Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #17 #94
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #9
Run ExplRExp #116 #65
PPAExp #104 #17
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #17
Stuff RateStuff #117 #15
TackleTak -  #58
Vanderbilt Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
VAN OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #5 #41
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #48
Pass ExplPExl #37 #38
PPAExp #33 #32
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #129 #23
F7 HavocF7 #41 #5
DB HavocDB #96 #39
Tennessee on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffVAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #59
SuccessSuc #18 #121
ExplosiveExp #128 #38
PPAPPA #46 #111
PowerPwr #15 #41
SP+SP+ #7 #39
Pts POPPO #55 #109
HavocHav #15 #65
Tennessee Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TENN OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #7 #61
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #96
Run ExplRExp #115 #30
PPAExp #39 #70
Run BlockR Blk #66 -
OL YdsOLY #13 #62
Stuff RateStuff #4 #39
TackleTak -  #106
Tennessee Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTENN OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #3 #58
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #125
Pass ExplPExl #113 #33
PPAExp #51 #120
Pass Block/RushP Blk #59 #63
F7 HavocF7 #33 #76
DB HavocDB #13 #48
Program Comparison
TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Neyland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 14
Tennessee -2.0 (66.5)
Vanderbilt won at Tennessee this year (45-24)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Tennessee last year (45-24)
Tennessee beat Vanderbilt in 2024 (36-23)
Tennessee beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (48-24)

  
VAN's OC Tim Beck (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Diego Pavia26737871%35392989.4
Blaze Berlowitz91753%131107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Diego Pavia167862105.241
Sedrick Alexander106570115.465
Makhilyn Young4541169.180
Jamezell Lassiter9143215.948
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Richardson (Tr)47810717.275
Junior Sherrill54784714.546
Eli Stowers61765412.567
Richie Hoskins28321311.553

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253
Bryan Longwell709142
Langston Patterson692030
Marlen Sewell522112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Capers379531
Zaylin Wood285471
Khordae Sydnor309493
Nicholas Rinaldi477491
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Randon Fontenette517056
Mark Davis233004
C.J. Heard (Tr)714253

TENN's OC Joey Halzle (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joey Aguilar (Tr)27240467%356524108.8
Jake Merklinger132454%173207.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DeSean Bishop1821076165.950
Star Thomas (Tr)10459675.752
Peyton Lewis7029074.132
Daune Morris3513313.819
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Brazzell II621017916.472
Braylon Staley68837612.373
Mike Matthews53813415.362
Ethan Davis21257212.240

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Edwin Spillman814332
Jeremiah Telander806120
Edrees Farooq760003
Arion Carter756221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Bailey277540
Caleb Herring156462
Tyre West238411
Daevin Hobbs304322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Redmond4310011
Colton Hood (Tr)505008
Jalen Mcmurray566225