Liberty at Jacksonville State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo   Liberty Flames at Jacksonville State Gamecocks  Jacksonville State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Liberty -6.0 (50.5) (-235)  Open: -6.0 | 51.0
Jacksonville State 34 - Liberty: 24  (Conference USA)

 
Flames (4 - 8) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (21 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
Our Line: Liberty -2  (SP+ JVST -2)
Projected Score: LIB: 26 - JVST: 24 (51)
LIB Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
LIB Travel: 443 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Charles Kelly (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 25 (34 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Liberty's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Liberty vs Maine-25.551.0W 28 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Liberty at Jacksonville State-6.050.5L 24 - 34ON
Sat 9/13 Liberty at Bowling Green-6.051.5L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/20 Liberty vs James Madison+7.546.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/27 Liberty at Old Dominion+14.553.5L 7 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Liberty at UTEP-1.546.5W 19 - 8UY
Tue 10/14 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.548.5W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Liberty vs Delaware-3.552.5W 59 - 30OY
Sat 11/8 Liberty vs Missouri State-7.551.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Liberty at Florida International-2.551.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Liberty at Louisiana Tech-1.545.5L 28 - 34ON
Sat 11/29 Liberty vs Kennesaw State+2.555.5L 42 - 48ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Jacksonville State at UCF+16.553.5L 10 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Jacksonville State vs Liberty+6.050.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/13 Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern+3.059.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 9/20 Jacksonville State vs Murray State-35.560.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/27 Jacksonville State at Southern Miss+4.555.5L 25 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-7.053.5W 29 - 27ON
Wed 10/15 Jacksonville State vs Delaware+3.055.5W 38 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/29 Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee-4.554.0W 24 - 21UN
Sat 11/8 Jacksonville State at UTEP-1.546.5W 30 - 27OY
Sat 11/15 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.556.5W 35 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Jacksonville State at Florida International+2.555.5L 21 - 27UN
Sat 11/29 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+1.556.5W 37 - 34OY
Fri 12/5 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State+3.062.5L 15 - 19UN
Tue 12/16 Jacksonville State vs Troy-3.047.5W 17 - 13UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)25.654% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)26.539% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
JVST#22 (.27)45% (35)28.149% (18)3.36 (17)25440% (95)1894.85 (3)#55 (.14)43% (84)25.244% (79)43% (85)3.81 (70)58.41.11.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
JVST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1225.619.749.9%4.211.3224002381615.763%36%54%43%14%.26
JVST Defense1425.22343.2%3.811.6 - - - - - 54%46%44%43%16%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1226.525.739.4%3.681.3 - - - - - 55%45%39%40%16%.1
JVST Offense1428.13445.2%4.851.1234432541895.564%36%49%40%11%.27

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1228:4222.145%50%6.764.41.31.351.6028.5
Jacksonville State1426:5722.641%54%658.41.11.65.61.7128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1263% (5)54% (2)41.8238.35.728 (25).25 (16)3.56 (7)76% (47)9% (43)0.91 (94)
JVST Defense1454% (108)44% (79) - - - - .09 (52)3.01 (72)63% (20)10% (59)0.88 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1255% (115)39% (30) - - - - .02 (20)2.68 (21)73% (62)10% (59)0.99 (68)
JVST Offense1464% (4)49% (18)45.9253.65.551 (1).25 (15)3.36 (17)67% (107)8% (23)1.07 (32)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1236% (130)43% (60)12.622.3161.27.212.815 (98)6 (10).27 (56)1.5 (104)24% (2)36% (23).43 (26)5% (36)1.9 (107)
JVST Defense1446% (27)43% (85) - - - - - - 12 (39).21 (55)1.5 (56)30% (102)33% (105).36 (92)6% (63)2 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1245% (19)40% (66) - - - - - - 8 (93).21 (51)1.6 (77)32% (73)31% (81).18 (17)6% (82)1.8 (9)
JVST Offense1436% (131)40% (95)13.422.3189.48.514.114 (108)7 (26).33 (35)1.9 (5)27% (10)32% (65).33 (72)3% (8)2.1 (51)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -6.14  #82
Liberty's Offense Rating: 9.75  #88
Liberty's Defense Rating: 15.89  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 606.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Liberty's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Liberty's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #102
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #86
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -6.14   Jacksonville State: -9.595

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: -9.0   Jacksonville State: -6.7




Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -9.595  #127
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 8.92  #93
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 26.41  #135
2025 Talent Rating: 386.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Jacksonville State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Jacksonville State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7  #92
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #67
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4  #102

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 26
Jacksonville State 24


Projected Total Points: 51
Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 25.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 23

Jacksonville State's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Jacksonville State34Liberty24Liberty -6.0Jacksonville State50.5Over
202410/30Liberty21Jacksonville State31Liberty -2.5Jacksonville State64.0Under
202310/10Jacksonville State13Liberty31Liberty -7Liberty59.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Jacksonville State221 Overs
Liberty112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 12 - 11 - 11 - 0

(#82) LIB at (#127) JVST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLIBJVST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #82 #127
SP+SP+ #102 #92
Perf GradeGrade #69 #69
OffenseOff #58 #76
DefenseDef #79 #44
Spec TeamsST #104 #107
TalentTal #93 #128
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #101
Liberty Notes
(11/22) Allowed 300+ rush yds vs La Tech, will miss bowl
(10/14) Lucky W vs NMSU, OG'd, only 3-10 on 3rd, KR TD
(10/14) QB Ethan Vasko JAG-, even rushing has regressed
(9/25) QB Vasko ? for ODU game, inj vs JMU
(9/20) QUIT WATCH. 1-3, QBs are awful, Off sucks
(9/20) Team this talented should not be this bad
(9/14) Awful situational team. TO's, FP, RZ issues
(9/7) Run Def awful, gave up 370+ in L to Jax St
(7/11) Losing DE Bush in spring a blow, Bazile good
(4/7) Fr QB Houck a goal line runner that will play
(4/7) RB rebuild. Blue some exp, Gray moved from WR
(4/7) QB Vasko (C Car) vs Merdinger (NC) for QB1
Liberty Injury Report
Jacksonville State Notes
(12/5) Creel is a RB taking snaps. Just an awful QB
(12/3) Have significant injuries at LB into CUSA title game
(11/29) Beat WKU to finish 7-1 in conf, play Kenn St in title game
(10/16) HC Kelly has been so much better than I thought
(10/16) RB Cam Cook a beast and criminally underrated
(10/14) QB1 now Caden Creel, Wimsatt (benched) now QB2
(10/10) OG'd SHSU 500-280, had 370 rush, needed GW FG
(10/8) Fr QB Caden Creel replaced Wimsatt in S Miss game
(10/8) QB1 Competition now, Fr Creel mobile but TO issues
(9/22) Off is 4th in rush yds after contact (wk 5)
(9/11) RB Cam Cook (Tr TCU) has been great so far
(8/29) QB Wimsatt awful vs UCF, Pass Def really bad
Jacksonville State Injury Report
Liberty on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffJVST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #58 #44
SuccessSuc #7 #84
ExplosiveExp #131 #27
PPAPPA #24 #55
PowerPwr #88 #135
SP+SP+ #86 #102
Pts POPPO #43 #70
HavocHav #33 #66
Liberty Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffJVST Def
Run GameRun #75 #36
Run SuccessRSuc #2 #79
Run ExplRExp #94 #22
PPAExp #16 #52
Run BlockR Blk #43 -
OL YdsOLY #7 #72
Stuff RateStuff #9 #63
TackleTak -  #22
Liberty Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LIB OffJVST Def
Pass GamePass #109 #64
Pass SuccessPSuc #60 #85
Pass ExplPExl #104 #56
PPAExp #56 #55
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #95 #60
F7 HavocF7 #43 #59
DB HavocDB #36 #63
Jacksonville State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCatJVST OffLIB Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #76 #79
SuccessSuc #35 #39
ExplosiveExp #30 #67
PPAPPA #22 #24
PowerPwr #93 #88
SP+SP+ #67 #103
Pts POPPO #3 #58
HavocHav #7 #71
Jacksonville State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCat
JVST OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #39 #93
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #30
Run ExplRExp #32 #68
PPAExp #15 #20
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLY #17 #21
Stuff RateStuff #31 #28
TackleTak -  #76
Jacksonville State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 35%
CategoryCatJVST OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #84 #44
Pass SuccessPSuc #95 #66
Pass ExplPExl #5 #77
PPAExp #35 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #26 #89
F7 HavocF7 #23 #59
DB HavocDB #8 #82
Program Comparison
JVST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Liberty 6.0 (50.5)
Jacksonville State won vs Liberty this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat Liberty last year (34-24)
Jacksonville State beat Liberty in 2024 (31-21)
Liberty beat Jacksonville State in 2023 (31-13)

  
LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ethan Vasko (Tr)15126657%196110127.4
Michael Merdinger (Tr)214151%350108.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Dickens (Tr)2281325165.895
Ethan Vasko (Tr)10025852.624
Caden Williams5624304.325
Vaughn Blue4723425.022
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donte Lee Jr32589518.462
Jamari Person (Tr)28315011.320
Julian Gray18218112.172
Reese Smith2320919.123

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Skylor Magee (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derrell Farrar (Tr)714122
Joseph Carter534010
Damond Harmon483116
Christian Bodnar442212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Eli Hall115413
Brenton Williams274330
Christian Bodnar442212
CJ Bazile Jr.276210
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damond Harmon483116
Brylan Green391005
Amarian Williams291015

JVST's OC Clint Trickett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Creel13021162%1514947.2
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)6311256%731426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Cook (Tr)2961666165.673
Caden Creel182107575.973
Gavin Wimsatt (Tr)5226345.144
Khristian Lando5120113.917
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deondre Johnson (Tr)30724624.177
Brock Rechsteiner36383510.656
Pearson Baldwin26302211.652
Cam Cook (Tr)3028609.554

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster

JVST's DC Brian Williams (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Sanders8312252
Walker O'Steen786361
Trevor Woods (Tr)641004
Caleb Nix (Tr)634003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Darrell Prater214400
Isaac Walker (Tr)316331
Malcolm Jones515310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre'Quon Fegans (Tr)362009
Emmanuel Oybadejo417565
Jaheim Jenkins (Tr)210005