Michigan State at Minnesota - 2025 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo   Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers  Minnesota logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -4.5 (44.5) (-198)  Open: -5.5
Minnesota 23 - Michigan State: 20  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
MINN is playing their 6th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Michigan State -0.5  (SP+ MINN -5)

Projected Score: MSU: 24 - MINN: 23 (47)
MINN Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MSU Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 5.5 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-18.549.5W 23 - 6UN
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3.545.5W 42 - 40ON
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-23.555.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+18.555.5L 31 - 45OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+12.548.5L 27 - 38OY
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-7.051.5L 13 - 38UN
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+26.549.5L 13 - 38OY
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+13.547.5L 20 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+4.544.5L 20 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+7.048.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+17.543.0L 17 - 20UY
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-4.049.5W 38 - 28OY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Minnesota vs Buffalo-16.545.5W 23 - 10UN
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-43.050.5W 66 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-3.041.5L 14 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-3.551.5W 31 - 28ON
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+23.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-7.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 10/17 Minnesota vs Nebraska+7.047.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+7.539.5L 3 - 41ON
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-4.544.5W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/14 Minnesota at Oregon+26.545.5L 13 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern+4.041.0L 35 - 38OY
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+2.538.5W 17 - 7UY
Fri 12/26 Minnesota vs New Mexico-1.544.5W 20 - 17UY

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)24.645% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)29.939% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)2344% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)22.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1224.621.641.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13
MINN Defense1322.91338.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1229.932.841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
MINN Offense132330.144.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 11.46  #37
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 19.95  #28
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 8.49  #35
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 14%  #33
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #82
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 11.46   Minnesota: 3.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -3.4   Minnesota: 1.5




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 3.73  #65
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 14.08  #62
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 13.12  #64
2025 Talent Rating: 928.00  #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8  #44
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 5.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5  #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8  #94
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #33

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan State 24
Minnesota 23


Projected Total Points: 47
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Minnesota23Michigan State20Minnesota -4.5Michigan State44.5Under
202310/28Minnesota27Michigan State12Minnesota -6.5Minnesota41.5Under
202209/24Michigan State7Minnesota34Minnesota -3Minnesota50.0Under
201710/14Minnesota27Michigan State30Michigan State -4Minnesota40.5Over
201311/30Michigan State14Minnesota3Michigan State -14Minnesota0
201211/24Minnesota10Michigan State26
201111/05Michigan State31Minnesota24
201011/06Michigan State31Minnesota8
200910/31Minnesota42Michigan State34
200611/11Michigan State18Minnesota31
200511/12Minnesota41Michigan State18
200410/16Michigan State51Minnesota17
200310/18Minnesota38Michigan State44
200210/19Michigan State7Minnesota28
200110/20Minnesota28Michigan State19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota841 Overs
Michigan State713 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 62 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams6 - 93 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#37) MSU at (#65) MINN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSUMINN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #37 #65
SP+SP+ #82 #70
Perf GradeGrade #91 #60
OffenseOff #61 #53
DefenseDef #96 #89
Spec TeamsST #133 #1
TalentTal #30 #19
Blue ChipsBC% #33 #44
Michigan State Notes
(12/6) Hired Pat Fitzgerald? Sparty gonna regret this one.
(12/6) DC Joe Rossi will remain under HC Fitzgerald
(11/30) HC Smith has been fired after 2 years, 9-15
(11/22) Blew 17-7 lead vs Iowa. 4 str 3 & outs to lose
(11/2) Outplayed Minn, penalties costly, tough loss
(10/27) 3 backdoor covers, otherwise awful team
(10/12) Doesn't feel like HC Smith is working out for Sparty
(10/11) Def may be worst in B1G, dump trucked in conf play
(9/21) Injuries piling up at LB, thin situation
(9/14) Success #'s bad on both sides vs meh so far
(8/30) QB Chiles meh, Run Def great vs WMU
(8/29) RB Makhi Frazier really good, complete back
Michigan State Injury Report
Minnesota Notes
(11/30) CB J Nestor was incredible vs Iowa, Does he return?
(11/22) This program is awful on road. Study why
(11/16) Gophers historically bad road season, L2 at home
(11/2) Outgained & outplayed by Mich St, Def torched
(10/27) Off horrific vs Iowa, 133 yds, 24 rushing, 3 TOs.
(10/18) Def dominated Neb w/ 9 sacks, held to 213 yds
(10/18) RB D Taylor breakout game, 148 yds, 6.2 ypc
(9/14) Rush Off disappointing, Red Zone issues hurt
(9/13) RB1 D Taylor doubtful for Cal (leg inj)
(8/29) QB Lindsey, RB Taylor as good as advertised
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
Minnesota Injury Report
Michigan State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffMINN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #89
SuccessSuc #86 #35
ExplosiveExp #118 #19
PPAPPA #105 #16
PowerPwr #28 #64
SP+SP+ #70 #33
Pts POPPO #116 #23
HavocHav #98 #18
Michigan State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #78 #82
Run SuccessRSuc #50 #8
Run ExplRExp #126 #50
PPAExp #116 #19
Run BlockR Blk #32 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #22
Stuff RateStuff #113 #73
TackleTak -  #86
Michigan State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
MSU OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #89 #95
Pass SuccessPSuc #107 #80
Pass ExplPExl #57 #6
PPAExp #79 #27
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #121 #93
F7 HavocF7 #112 #90
DB HavocDB #63 #1
Minnesota on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #96
SuccessSuc #39 #69
ExplosiveExp #122 #110
PPAPPA #64 #85
PowerPwr #62 #35
SP+SP+ #94 #81
Pts POPPO #27 #98
HavocHav #71 #93
Minnesota Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat
MINN OffMSU Def
Run GameRun #66 #89
Run SuccessRSuc #65 #25
Run ExplRExp #113 #80
PPAExp #80 #36
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #119 #37
Stuff RateStuff #91 #33
TackleTak -  #40
Minnesota Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCatMINN OffMSU Def
Pass GamePass #57 #86
Pass SuccessPSuc #29 #111
Pass ExplPExl #129 #101
PPAExp #58 #111
Pass Block/RushP Blk #54 #102
F7 HavocF7 #80 #64
DB HavocDB #70 #121
Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Minnesota -4.5 (44.5)
Minnesota won vs Michigan State this year (23-20)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Michigan State last year (23-20)
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-12)

  
MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles12820363%13921036.9
Alessio Milivojevic11117364%12671037.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Frazier11652024.549
Elijah Tau-Tolliver (Tr)7242825.985
Brandon Tullis6829744.435
Aidan Chiles8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nick Marsh59662611.248
Omari Kelly (Tr)47626213.375
Jack Velling36359310.028
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)24330313.845

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Wayne Matthews III735001
Malik Spencer523215
Alex VanSumeren502221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Hall885321
Jalen Thompson296381
Quindarius Dunnigan255390
Malik Spencer523215
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Bell (Tr)495106
Malik Spencer523215
Chance Rucker70012

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey24638963%23821866.1
Max Shikenjanski4580%801016.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor14367044.771
Fame Ijeboi9744124.549
Grant Washington2113206.316
Cameron Davis (Tr)3511123.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lemeke Brockington46484410.524
Javon Tracy (Tr)37454612.345
Jalen Smith28419415.078
Darius Taylor3424507.240

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski1029331
Devon Williams899311
Koi Perich823102
Kerry Brown564003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith38181373
Karter Menz329742
Jaxon Howard296410
Maverick Baranowski1029331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Nestor (Tr)506006
Kerry Brown564003
Anthony Smith38181373