Michigan State at Minnesota Game Matchup
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Minnesota Golden GophersMinnesota logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Huntington Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.1 - 6.9 (#91)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 5) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
MINN is playing their 6th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Minnesota -9   (SP+ MINN -6)
Projected Score: MSU: 18 - MINN: 27 (44)
MINN Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
MSU Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Gophers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (57 - 39)
Avg Score : 26 - 17 (29 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#41)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
Michigan State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Michigan State vs Western Michigan-17.50.0
Sat 9/6 Michigan State vs Boston College-3
Sat 9/13 Michigan State vs Youngstown State-26.5
Sat 9/20 Michigan State at USC+10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Michigan State at Nebraska+11
Sat 10/11 Michigan State vs UCLA-3
Sat 10/18 Michigan State at Indiana+12
Sat 10/25 Michigan State vs Michigan+15.5
Sat 11/1 Michigan State at Minnesota+9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Michigan State vs Penn State+23.5
Sat 11/22 Michigan State at Iowa+11
Sat 11/29 Michigan State vs Maryland-8.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Minnesota's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Wed 8/27 Minnesota vs Buffalo-18.50.0
Sat 9/6 Minnesota vs Northwestern State-33
Sat 9/13 Minnesota at California-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Minnesota vs Rutgers-5.5
Sat 10/4 Minnesota at Ohio State+24
Sat 10/11 Minnesota vs Purdue-24.5
Sat 10/18 Minnesota vs Nebraska-0.5
Sat 10/25 Minnesota at Iowa+4.5
Sat 11/1 Minnesota vs Michigan State-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Minnesota at Oregon+20
Sat 11/22 Minnesota vs Northwestern-9
Sat 11/29 Minnesota vs Wisconsin-4.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)19.345% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)26.139% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
MINN#64 (.2)45% (39)26.244% (65)2.7 (119)10346% (29)2044.38 (27)#16 (.08)39% (35)16.936% (8)42% (80)3.32 (23)35.60.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1219.317.841.6%3.341.6193371182183.750%50%45%38%18%.13
MINN Defense1316.916.638.9%3.321.5 - - - - - 50%50%36%42%19%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1226.12841.7%4.060.9 - - - - - 50%50%39%45%14%.19
MINN Offense1326.22944.9%4.380.8193071032043.744%56%44%46%16%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1230:5418.838%52%6.763.31.60.95.51.6126.3
Minnesota1329:1318.545%90%4.535.60.81.54.41.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1250% (74)45% (50)32.4118.43.711 (116).02 (116)2.76 (109)74% (66)12% (112)0.82 (126)
MINN Defense1350% (63)36% (8) - - - - .02 (19)2.71 (22)74% (69)9% (90)0.95 (50)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1250% (56)39% (25) - - - - .06 (36)2.8 (37)67% (29)10% (64)1.01 (80)
MINN Offense1344% (111)44% (65)28.2102.93.717 (84).11 (80)2.7 (119)73% (69)10% (80)0.88 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1250% (61)38% (107)17.729.5218.17.412.313 (116)13 (103).24 (79)1.6 (57)33% (106)25% (122).18 (113)6% (63)2 (80)
MINN Defense1350% (71)42% (80) - - - - - - 16 (10).15 (27)1.3 (6)33% (43)26% (16).15 (10)10% (1)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1250% (79)45% (111) - - - - - - 9 (76).34 (111)1.7 (101)32% (70)35% (118).43 (111)4% (121)2.1 (74)
MINN Offense1356% (25)46% (29)19.529.2204.1710.518 (68)5 (6).27 (58)1.4 (129)30% (46)31% (80).32 (76)6% (70)2 (75)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Michigan State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9
Michigan State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 6.35   Minnesota: 12.13

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -0.2   Minnesota: 6.0




Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 12.13 #25
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 19.01 #40
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 5.75 #20
2025 Talent Rating: 894.00 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #43
Minnesota's 2025 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
Minnesota's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #40
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #100
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.44
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 27
Michigan State 18

Projected Total Points: 44
Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 16.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.6

Minnesota's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/28Minnesota27Michigan State12MinnesotaMinnesota -6.5Minnesota41.5Under
202209/24Michigan State7Minnesota34MinnesotaMinnesota -3Minnesota50.0Under
201710/14Minnesota27Michigan State30Michigan StateMichigan State -4Minnesota40.5Over
201311/30Michigan State14Minnesota3Michigan StateMichigan State -14Minnesota0
201211/24Minnesota10Michigan State26Michigan State
201111/05Michigan State31Minnesota24Michigan State
201011/06Michigan State31Minnesota8Michigan State
200910/31Minnesota42Michigan State34Minnesota
200611/11Michigan State18Minnesota31Minnesota
200511/12Minnesota41Michigan State18Minnesota
200410/16Michigan State51Minnesota17Michigan State
200310/18Minnesota38Michigan State44Michigan State
200210/19Michigan State7Minnesota28Minnesota
200110/20Minnesota28Michigan State19Minnesota
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Minnesota741 Overs
Michigan State702 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 62 - 21 - 11 - 1
Road Teams6 - 82 - 21 - 11 - 1

(#49) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.35 #49
Offense Rating: 16.21 #53
Defense Rating: 9.86 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.2 #64
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9 #32
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #34
Expected Record: 5.1 - 6.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Michigan State Notes
(5/21) OL looks pretty bad outside OG Gulbin (Wake)
(5/21) If Chiles improves they have WR/TE weapons
(5/21) Def 14 portal adds, 5 DL & 7 DBs
(5/7) WR Fr Marsh big find LY, sneaky great portal adds
(5/7) OL 2/5 back. Awful LY, 3 portal adds, Moore huge
(5/7) RB - Tullis & Frazier lead, not much exp. 1 portal
(4/4) TE Velling a big target, top 10 TE via PFF
(3/19) Def OK LY, need playmakers/pass rush
(3/19) Year 2 for HC Smith, need to show progress
(3/18) QB Chiles must improve, limit TO's
Michigan State     Ratings Matchup     Minnesota
Power #49
#25
Off #53
#40
Def #36
#20
Talent #37
#19
SP+ #64
#40
SP+ Off #107
#100
SP+ Def #32
#14

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-12)
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2022 (34-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | MINN
Depth Chart: MSU | MINN
Rosters: MSU | MINN
(#25) Minnesota Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.13 #25
Offense Rating: 19.01 #40
Defense Rating: 5.75 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0 #40
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.8 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #14
Talent Rating: 894.00 #19
Blue Chip Ratio: 8 #43
Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.38 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Good Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.32 PPO
Great Run Def Success 36%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Minnesota Notes
(5/26) Portal DE J Howard (LSU) a pot. gamewrecker
(5/23) Safeties Perich & Brown a top duo in CFB
(5/2) S Koi Perch #2 via PFF, only a Soph, 5 Ints
(4/17) QB RFr Drake Lindsey starter? Pryon in portal
(4/7) OL 2/5 back, bad LY. 3 exp'd P4 portals added
(3/31) RB Taylor back, add Turner (Marsh). Looks great
(3/19) WR rebuild. 3 portal adds. Improved, how much?
(3/19) Def v good and return a lot. New DE/CB needs
(3/19) Promoted DC Collins after Hetherman (Mia)
(3/19) Fleck is a good HC. Off could jump in '25


  
Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles19232459%241513127.5
Alessio Milivojevic010%0010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aidan Chiles9623432.426
Nick Marsh42305.811
Makhi Frazier72103.08
Brandon Tullis72002.99
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Omari Kelly (Tr)53869416.471
Chrishon Mccray (Tr)40705917.668
Nick Marsh41649315.877
Jack Velling36411111.434

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nikai Martinez513012
Malik Spencer441002
Tracy Revels (Tr)400021
David Santiago (Tr)375423
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Isaac Smith (Tr)314310
Alex VanSumeren163200
Ben Roberts82100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Eaton (Tr)242115
David Santiago (Tr)375423
Malcolm Bell (Tr)261003

Minnesota's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Lindsey4580%501010.0
Darius Taylor11100%101010.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor205986104.880
A.J. Turner (Tr)10486468.388
Cameron Davis (Tr)4419004.320
Fame Ijeboi21306.513
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Tracy (Tr)57818714.472
Darius Taylor5435026.522
Logan Loya (Tr)29348412.029
Jameson Geers27286410.623

View Minnesota's Full Roster
Minnesota's DC Danny Collins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Baranowski655112
Kerry Brown633004
Jeff Roberson (Tr)589370
Koi Perich463012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Anthony Smith27126101
Jeff Roberson (Tr)589370
Deven Eastern275222
Maverick Baranowski655112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Za'Quan Bryan191005
Jalen Logan-Redding272054
Kerry Brown633004