
NC State Wolfpack (@PackFootball)
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 | Proj: 8 - 4 (#37) | SOS: (#80)

NC State's 2026 identity runs through CJ Bailey, who returns as one of the most productive returning QBs in the ACC after posting the second-highest single-season completion rate in program history (68.8%, 3,105 yards, 25 TD) and drawing national recognition as one of the most impactful re-signings of the cycle. The Wolfpack reloaded around him via the portal, landing WR Victor Snow (815 yards, 8 TD from Buffalo) and a pair of new TEs, though that new pass-catcher group building chemistry with Bailey in spring is the offense's key variable. OL continuity is promising — Teague Andersen anchors the line, though his shift to left tackle and Spike Sowells Jr.'s projected move to center introduce some transition risk up front. The biggest concern is a defense ranked #102 in PPA last season; DC D.J. Eliot must integrate portal LBs Harvey Dyson (9 sacks) and Raul Aguirre Jr. alongside returning safety Asaad Brown Jr. to make a meaningful jump. A Week 3 road trip to Vanderbilt — listed as a virtual coin flip — arrives early enough to shape expectations for a program still trying to break out of the Doeren-era ceiling in year 14.
Key Storylines
- CJ Bailey's return as a top-tier returning QB (3,105 yds, 25 TD, 68.8% completion in 2025 — second-best single-season mark in program history) is the program's clearest strength; the Wolfpack built the entire offseason roster strategy around protecting and surrounding him
- Transfer portal WR Victor Snow (815 yds, 8 TD from Buffalo) headlines an overhauled pass-catcher corps that also added TEs Hunter Provience and Vander Ploog; new weapons must develop chemistry with Bailey quickly during spring
- OL transition is a quiet concern: Teague Andersen is shifting from RT to LT to cover a departed starter, and Spike Sowells Jr. projects to move to center as a sophomore — both positional moves carry real execution risk
- Defense must prove it can climb from #102 PPA ranking under DC D.J. Eliot; edge rusher Harvey Dyson (9 sacks in 2025) and LB Raul Aguirre Jr. (CFP championship game experience at Miami) are the headliners of a heavily portal-constructed unit
- Dave Doeren enters year 14 with an 8-5 record in 2025 and a 'Below Average P4' 2026 profile; an early road test at Vanderbilt (Week 3, listed as essentially a coin flip) will signal quickly whether the program has taken a step forward
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | NC State vs Virginia | +3.5 | 54.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | NC State vs Richmond | -28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | NC State at Vanderbilt | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | NC State vs App State | -19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | NC State vs Louisville | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/23 | NC State at Stanford | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | NC State vs California | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/6 | NC State vs Duke | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | NC State vs Syracuse | -10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | NC State at Florida State | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | NC State at North Carolina | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
Schedule Rating: #80
Future 2027 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -12.5W24–17 | 58.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | NC State vs Virginia | -3.0W35–31 | 53.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | -7.5W34–24 | 52.5 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | NC State at Duke | +3.0L33–45 | 57.5 | L33–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -10.0L21–23 | 57.5 | L21–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | NC State vs Campbell | -42.5W56–10 | 61.5 | W56–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | NC State at Notre Dame | +23.5L7–36 | 59.5 | L7–36 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/25 | NC State at Pittsburgh | +5.5L34–53 | 52.5 | L34–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | NC State vs Georgia Tech | +4.5W48–36 | 58.5 | W48–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/15 | NC State at Miami | +16.5L7–41 | 54.5 | L7–41 | U | N |
| Fri 11/21 | NC State vs Florida State | +7.0W21–11 | 58.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | NC State vs North Carolina | -7.0W42–19 | 48.5 | W42–19 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/19 | NC State vs Memphis | -6.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
2025 Record: 8 - 5 (ACC: 4 - 4)
Spread Record 7 - 6 - 0 | O/U 7 - 6
2025 class: 212 points #33
2024 class: 225 points #26
2023 class: 204 points #48
2022 class: 171 points #62
Average Class Ranking: #43
Average Recruiting Points: 205
Consistent Top 25 Contenders
4 Year Class: #39 - Best: #26 Worst: #48
CFB Crootin Averages
ACC Class: 221 #40
Power 4 Class: 229 #40
FBS Class: 198 #70
2020 class: 199 points #44
2019 class: 221 points #28
2018 class: 221 points #24
2017 class: 180 points #43
Average Class Ranking: #35
Average Recruiting Points: 205
2026 Portal Class #44 - 19 players, 86 Avg
2025 Portal Class #61 - 18 players, 86 Avg
2024 Portal Class #18 - 15 players, 88 Avg
2023 Portal Class #63 - 6 players, 86 Avg
2022 Portal Class #102 - 2 players, 87 Avg
2021 Portal Class #35 - 21 players, 86 Avg
2020 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
2019 Portal Class NR - players, 0 Avg
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 273 | 397 | 69% | 3105 | 25 | 9 | 7.8 |
| Tad Hudson (Tr) | 139 | 254 | 55% | 1253 | 6 | 7 | 4.9 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Scott | 106 | 595 | 4 | 5.6 | 69 |
| Davion Gause (Tr) | 61 | 258 | 3 | 4.2 | 25 |
| CJ Bailey | 89 | 215 | 6 | 2.4 | 30 |
| Will Wilson | 43 | 146 | 10 | 3.4 | 16 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Snow (Tr) | 62 | 815 | 8 | 13.1 | 75 |
| Davion Dozier (Tr) | 20 | 448 | 5 | 22.4 | 68 |
| Tyran Warren (Tr) | 24 | 442 | 4 | 18.4 | 74 |
| Teddy Hoffmann | 25 | 349 | 3 | 14.0 | 55 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asaad Brown Jr. | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| King Mack (Tr) | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Ronnie Royal III | 49 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jackson Vick | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Dyson III | 31 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Chase Bond | 11 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Joseph Adedire | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| King Mack (Tr) | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Nelson II | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Jackson Vick | 45 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| King Mack (Tr) | 58 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Overall Returning Production: 69% #53
Offense Returning Production: 84% #31
Defense Returning Production: 55% #100
NC State's Official Roster
2026 Portal Class #44
19 Commits, 86.3 Avg Rating
27% of 2026 Roster from Portal, 19% TY
2026 Talent Rating: 864.00 #27
Offense Talent #28 | Defense Talent #36
2025 #43 | 2024 #38 | 2023 #58 | 2022 #35
2026 Record: 0 - 0
2026 Conf Record: 0 - 0
Spread: 0 - 0 - 0 | Totals: 0 - 0
2025 Record: 8 - 5
2025 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 6
2024 Record: 6 - 7
2024 Conf Record: 3 - 5
Spread: 4 - 8 - 1 | Totals: 8 - 5
2023 Record: 9 - 4
2023 Conf Record: 6 - 2
Spread: 7 - 6 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8
Four Year Record: 23 - 16
Four Year Record vs. Spread: 18 - 20 - 1
Four Year Conference Record: 13 - 11
2022 Record: 8 - 5
2022 Conf Record: 4 - 4
Spread: 4 - 9 - 0 | Totals: 5 - 8
2021 Record: 9 - 3
2021 Conf Record: 6 - 2
Spread: 7 - 5 - 0 | Totals: 7 - 5
2020 Record: 8 - 4
2020 Conf Record: 7 - 3
Spread: 8 - 4 - 0 | Totals: 6 - 6
2019 Record: 4 - 8
2019 Conf Record: 1 - 7
Spread: 2 - 9 - 1 | Totals: 5 - 7
Eight Year Record: 52 - 36
Eight Year Record vs. Spread: 39 - 47 - 2
Eight Year Conference Record: 37 - 27
| NC State Recent Bowl History | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Bowl | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result |
| 2025 | Gasparilla Bowl | NC State vs Memphis | -6.0 | 56.5 | W 31 - 7 |
| 2024 | Go Bowl | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5 | 61.5 | L 21 - 26 |
| 2023 | Tarts Bowl | NC State vs Kansas State | +3.0 | 48.5 | L 19 - 28 |
| 2022 | Mayo Bowl | NC State vs Maryland | -2.5 | 45.0 | L 12 - 16 |
| 2020 | Gator Bowl | NC State vs Kentucky | +3.0 | 50.5 | L 21 - 23 |
| 2018 | N/A | NC State vs Texas A&M | +7.5 | 58.5 | L 13 - 52 |
| 2017 | N/A | NC State vs Arizona State | -5.0 | 62.5 | W 52 - 31 |
| 2016 | Independence Bowl | NC State vs Vanderbilt | -4.0 | 47.0 | W 41 - 17 |
| Teams | Offense PPA | Offense Expl | Offense Success | Offense Pts Per Opp | Avg Start FP | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Defense PPA | Defense Expl | Defense Success | Defense Pts Per Opp | Opponent FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .28 (20) | 1.38 (13) | 44% (50) | 4.69 (8) | 27.9 (105) | 41% | 50% | .21 (102) | 1.44 (134) | 39% (39) | 3.7 (72) | 30 (95) |
| Teams | Offense PPA | Offense Expl | Offense Success | Offense Pts Per Opp | Avg Start FP | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Defense PPA | Defense Expl | Defense Success | Defense Pts Per Opp | Opponent FP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .25 (26) | 1.33 (32) | 45% (36) | 3.97 (61) | 28.9 (73) | 37% | 56% | .19 (86) | 1.38 (113) | 41% (59) | 3.78 (67) | 31.3 (117) |
More Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | 29:56 | 20.4 | 41% | 50% | 5.5 | 53.8 | 1 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | 29:10 | 18.6 | 37% | 56% | 4.8 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2 |
Overall Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PPG | Home | Road | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 13 | 30.2 | 35.3 | 23 | 43.8% (50) | 4.69 (8) | 1 | 20 | 393 | 147 | 246 | 4.5 | 47% (86) | 51% (49) | 44% (64) | 44% (44) | 16% (74) | .28 (20) |
| 2025 Defense | 13 | 27.2 | 21 | 39.8 | 39.2% (39) | 3.7 (72) | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | - | 43% (6) | 56% (134) | 38% (19) | 40% (55) | 15% (86) | .21 (102) |
| Teams | Games | PPG | Home | Road | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 13 | 28.5 | 31 | 30.8 | 45.1% (36) | 3.97 (61) | 1.7 | 19 | 345 | 130 | 215 | 4.4 | 47% (89) | 52% (48) | 44% (68) | 47% (20) | 19% (122) | .25 (26) |
| 2024 Defense | 13 | 30.2 | 24.7 | 35.5 | 40.9% (59) | 3.78 (67) | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% (33) | 53% (106) | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 20% (16) | .19 (86) |
Run Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 13 | 47% (86) | 44% (64) | 32.5 | 147.1 | 4.5 | 27 (40) | .19 (33) | 2.94 (68) | 73% (61) | 10% (98) | 1.1 (19) |
| 2025 Defense | 13 | 43% (6) | 38% (19) | - | - | - | - | .12 (80) | 2.87 (64) | 65% (25) | 8% (109) | 1.09 (124) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 13 | 47% (89) | 44% (68) | 29.6 | 130.3 | 4.4 | 21 (59) | .15 (56) | 3.24 (36) | 69% (92) | 13% (127) | 0.98 (59) |
| 2024 Defense | 13 | 47% (33) | 39% (31) | - | - | - | - | .2 (111) | 3.07 (83) | 76% (86) | 12% (24) | 1.28 (134) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Offense | 13 | 51% (49) | 44% (44) | 21.5 | 31.8 | 245.7 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 26 (33) | 10 (119) | .39 (25) | 1.6 (33) | 31% (65) | 32% (49) | .4 (32) | 6% (51) | 2.1 (53) |
| 2025 Defense | 13 | 56% (134) | 40% (55) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 (75) | .3 (90) | 1.7 (117) | 35% (21) | 31% (91) | .38 (111) | 7% (46) | 2.1 (83) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Offense | 13 | 52% (48) | 47% (20) | 18.2 | 28.1 | 214.8 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 18 (68) | 12 (85) | .36 (24) | 1.6 (45) | 30% (35) | 36% (24) | .57 (5) | 6% (83) | 2.2 (19) |
| 2024 Defense | 13 | 53% (106) | 43% (87) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .19 (47) | 1.5 (22) | 33% (49) | 30% (65) | .33 (83) | 8% (16) | 2.3 (120) |
(2/6) QB Bailey back is big, depth behind him is ? ❌
(2/6) RB Scott (#2 LY) back after good Fr yr, depth ? ❌
(2/6) WR sneaky good portal class of 5, esp Snow (Buf) ❌
(2/6) OL returns 4 w starting exp, 2 portals. Decent ❌
(2/6) DT has some exp, DE/LB has more but not sold ❌
(2/6) DBs have options, CB has more ?, S looks good ❌
Overall
Team Info
2025 Record
ACC 4 - 4
5 Year Profile
'26 Profile
Returning Production
From 2025
Roster
Talent Info
Talent Profile
(OC) Kurt Roper 2
(DC) D. J. Eliot 2
2026 Schedule
Information
Win History
Notes
Live Team Notes
Roster Experience
Snaps & Starter Info
Snaps Returning
Upperclass
Portals
Top '26 Incoming Portals
Top Players
Top Performers on Roster
Recruits
Top '26 Incoming Recruits
Overall
Four Year Ratings Profile
Offense
Four Year Ratings Profile
Defense
Four Year Ratings Profile
Offense
2025 Ratings
OLine
Misc
Defense
2025 Ratings
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Scoring
Net Efficiency
Pts Per Drive
Pts Per Play
(OC) Kurt Roper 2
(DC) D. J. Eliot 2
Records
Offense
Four Year Offense Pts Per Play
Defense
Four Year Defense Pts Per Play
Overall
Four Year Net Pts Per Play