Ohio State at Illinois - 2025 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo (#1)Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini(#17)Illinois logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -15.5 (51.5) (-800)  Open: -13.5 | 50.5
Ohio State 34 - Illinois: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Buckeyes (6 - 0) (5 - 0 - 1)
Coach Ryan Day (66 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 7 (29 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.5 - 0.5 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
ILL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -17  (SP+ OSU -14.5)

Projected Score: OSU: 34 - ILL: 17 (50)
OSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
OSU Travel: 276 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (5 - 2) (5 - 2 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (27 - 22)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (35 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Ohio State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Ohio State vs Texas-1.546.5W 14 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 Ohio State vs Grambling-55.562.5W 70 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Ohio State vs Ohio-28.049.0W 37 - 9UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Ohio State at Washington-9.552.5W 24 - 6UY
Sat 10/4 Ohio State vs Minnesota-23.542.5W 42 - 3OY
Sat 10/11 Ohio State at Illinois-15.551.5W 34 - 16UY
Sat 10/18 Ohio State at Wisconsin-25.540.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Ohio State vs Penn State-13
Sat 11/8 Ohio State at Purdue-30
Sat 11/15 Ohio State vs UCLA-33
Sat 11/22 Ohio State vs Rutgers-25.5
Sat 11/29 Ohio State at Michigan-6

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Illinois vs Western Illinois-48.562.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Illinois at Duke-2.549.0W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/13 Illinois vs Western Michigan-27.550.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/20 Illinois at Indiana+7.051.5L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/27 Illinois vs USC+6.562.5W 34 - 32OY
Sat 10/4 Illinois at Purdue-7.555.5W 43 - 27OY
Sat 10/11 Illinois vs Ohio State+15.551.5L 16 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Illinois at Washington+11.5
Sat 11/1 Illinois vs Rutgers-6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Illinois vs Maryland+0.5
Sat 11/22 Illinois at Wisconsin-9
Sat 11/29 Illinois vs Northwestern-9.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#21 (.32)52% (8)36.842% (89)2.88 (78)16264% (1)2615.42 (3)#5 (-.05)37% (24)6.835% (19)39% (48)2.4 (5)390.71.2
ILL#44 (.25)47% (35)3443% (76)2.85 (83)11951% (15)2644.79 (22)#120 (.26)47% (122)25.441% (64)51% (133)4.51 (119)38.90.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense636.82952.4%5.420.7224231622614.951%49%42%64%9%.32
ILL Defense725.417.346.9%4.511.4 - - - - - 44%56%41%51%13%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense66.81137.2%2.41.2 - - - - - 44%55%35%39%18%-.05
ILL Offense7343547%4.790.9213831192643.548%51%43%51%16%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State632:062254%57%4.5390.71.26.53031.5
Illinois729:5620.637%73%4.938.90.91.44.72131.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense651% (64)42% (89)33.3161.74.912 (48).04 (104)2.88 (78)75% (53)5% (2)0.75 (131)
ILL Defense744% (13)41% (64) - - - - .05 (43)2.82 (58)76% (94)9% (91)0.82 (21)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense644% (17)35% (19) - - - - -.04 (18)2.46 (22)63% (27)13% (26)0.88 (38)
ILL Offense748% (82)43% (76)34118.93.514 (28)- (123)2.85 (83)66% (102)12% (121)0.84 (112)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense649% (72)64% (1)21.227.2260.89.612.316 (9)3 (26).62 (3)1.4 (115)23% (4)39% (19).58 (15)4% (30)1.9 (95)
ILL Defense756% (125)51% (133) - - - - - - 2 (114).42 (125)1.4 (40)28% (118)36% (128).39 (104)4% (130)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense655% (116)39% (48) - - - - - - 3 (93)-.03 (7)1.1 (1)34% (43)21% (10).04 (6)5% (93)1.8 (30)
ILL Offense751% (53)51% (15)20.428.1264.49.412.914 (22)2 (11).52 (11)1.7 (21)29% (38)37% (23).49 (29)4% (33)2.2 (33)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 33.31  #1
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 32.25  #2
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -16.88  #1
2025 Talent Rating: 1144.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73%  #2
Ohio State's 2025 Expected Record: 11.5 - 0.5
Ohio State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.6  #1
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.3  #8
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.7  #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 33.31   Illinois: 13.61

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 27.6   Illinois: 13.2




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 13.61  #52
Illinois's Offense Rating: 21.08  #28
Illinois's Defense Rating: 12.06  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 864.00  #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #39
Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.2  #28
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.3  #18
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.3  #50

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 36.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 6.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 11

Ohio State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 34
Illinois 17


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 28
Illinois 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 27
Illinois 22

Total Points: 49
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Illinois16Ohio State34Ohio State -15.5Ohio State51.5Under
201711/18Ohio State52Illinois14Ohio State -41Illinois54.5Over
201511/14Illinois3Ohio State28Ohio State -16Ohio State55.0Under
201411/01Ohio State55Illinois14Ohio State -28.5Ohio State0
201311/16Illinois35Ohio State60Ohio State -32Illinois0
201211/03Ohio State52Illinois22
201110/15Illinois7Ohio State17
201010/02Illinois13Ohio State24
200909/26Ohio State30Illinois0
200811/15Illinois20Ohio State30
200711/10Ohio State21Illinois28
200611/04Illinois10Ohio State17
200511/05Ohio State40Illinois2
200111/17Ohio State22Illinois34
200011/10Illinois21Ohio State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois221 Overs
Ohio State1332 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 102 - 31 - 11 - 2
Road Teams10 - 53 - 22 - 11 - 1

(#1) OSU at (#52) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOSUILL
Power RatePwr #1 #52
SP+SP+ #1 #28
Perf GradeGrade #4 #32
OffenseOff #2 #15
DefenseDef #9 #60
Spec TeamsST #58 #44
TalentTal #1 #37
Blue ChipsBC% #2 #39

Ohio State Notes
(10/11) OL seems to improve every week. RB Jackson a find
(10/11) CB Igbinosun physical & dares refs to call him on it
(10/6) Def is best unit in CFB. Allowed 25 points in 5 games
(9/29) Run Off is not good, Sayin is accurate but deep ball?
(9/22) Allowed 16 points in 3 games, none in red zone
(8/30) Def dominated Texas. Run game was awful
(8/27) Secondary good, but CB Igbinosun inconsistent
(8/18) QB1 Julian Sayin wins starting job
(7/12) DL issue, smaller, DT. Atkinson (NC) added
(7/12) Lost 14 NFL Draft picks, 2nd most ever
(6/6) RB1 Peoples, Donaldson (WVU), staff high on pos

Illinois Notes
(10/10) 1st in P4 at +42 Pts off TOs w/ a TO margin +7
(9/20) Destroyed by IU, outrushed 267 to 2! Off awful
(8/15) OL banged up in fall camp, not major
(6/6) QB Altmyer 3rd yr w/ OC Lunney. Big goals TY
(6/6) RBs Laughery good, Feegan back from inj (hip)
(6/6) WRs lost top 2, Clement (WVU) + Bowick (BSU)
(6/6) OL has 4/5 back, 3 portals, should improve TY
(6/6) Def looks really deep, could be better unit
(6/6) Secondary one of best in B1G, Pass rush ?
(6/6) Def good LY, returns a lot. 7 portal DL added
(5/23) Illini were 5-1 in 1 score games LY
Ohio State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
OSU OffILL Def
Perf GradePerf #2 #60
SuccessSuc #8 #122
ExplosiveExp #122 #45
PPAPPA #21 #120
PowerPwr #2 #88
SP+SP+ #8 #50
Pts POPPO #3 #119
HavocHav #6 #122
Ohio State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
OSU OffILL Def
Run GameRun #69 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #64
Run ExplRExp #131 #21
PPAExp #104 #43
Run BlockR Blk #11 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #58
Stuff RateStuff #78 #57
TackleTak -  #27
Ohio State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
OSU OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #1 #116
Pass SuccessPSuc #1 #133
Pass ExplPExl #115 #40
PPAExp #3 #125
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #39 #8
F7 HavocF7 #2 #91
DB HavocDB #30 #130
Illinois on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatILL OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #9
SuccessSuc #35 #24
ExplosiveExp #37 #2
PPAPPA #44 #5
PowerPwr #28 #1
SP+SP+ #18 #2
Pts POPPO #22 #5
HavocHav #85 #43
Illinois Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
ILL OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #69 #14
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #19
Run ExplRExp #112 #38
PPAExp #123 #18
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #22
Stuff RateStuff #107 #34
TackleTak -  #22
Illinois Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatILL OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #21 #12
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #48
Pass ExplPExl #21 #1
PPAExp #11 #7
Pass Block/RushP Blk #74 #31
F7 HavocF7 #121 #26
DB HavocDB #33 #93
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 69° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Ohio State 15.5 (51.5)
Ohio State won at Illinois this year (34-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
OSU's OC Brian Hartline (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Julian Sayin12015378%14791539.7
Lincoln Kienholz7888%861010.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Bo Jackson5840727.064
CJ Donaldson (Tr)5823764.127
James Peoples4020205.133
Isaiah West124914.112
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiah Smith40505712.687
Carnell Tate28476417.049
Max Klare (Tr)15175111.729
Brandon Inniss118707.912

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Matt Patricia (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Arvell Reese385522
Sonny Styles382010
Caden Curry3110621
Caleb Downs282010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Curry3110621
Arvell Reese385522
Kayden McDonald266310
Kenyatta Jackson84221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davison Igbinosun261004
Arvell Reese385522
Jermaine Mathews Jr.112102

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer13919272%18211319.5
Ethan Hampton (Tr)3475%27016.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaden Feagin8533854.026
Ca'Lil Valentine6432935.125
Aidan Laughery3018136.057
Hank Beatty125125.025
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Hank Beatty39617215.862
Collin Dixon22357316.261
Hudson Clement (Tr)1918309.627
Justin Bowick (Tr)12150412.525

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matthew Bailey392011
Miles Scott342001
Dylan Rosiek282011
Torrie Cox Jr.240001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gabe Jacas246531
Leon Lowery153230
Angelo McCullom132220
Joe Barna121112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott62002
Joe Barna121112
Matthew Bailey392011