USC at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Oregon -10.5 (59.5) (-410) Open: -13.5
Oregon 42 - USC: 27 (Big Ten)

Trojans (9 - 4) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Lincoln Riley (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 36 - 23 (27 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

ORE 2nd straight Home Game
USC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -14.5 (SP+ ORE -10)
Projected Score: USC: 21 - ORE: 35 (56)
ORE Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USC Travel: 740 miles

Ducks (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
USC Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

USC's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	USC vs Missouri State	-34.5	59.5	W 73 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	USC vs Georgia Southern	-29.0	61.5	W 59 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/13	USC at Purdue	-20.5	59.5	W 33 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/20	USC vs Michigan State	-18.5	55.5	W 45 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/27	USC at Illinois	-6.5	62.5	L 32 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	USC vs Michigan	-3.0	58.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/18	USC at Notre Dame	+10.5	60.5	L 24 - 34	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	USC at Nebraska	-4.5	59.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Fri 11/7	USC vs Northwestern	-14.5	54.5	W 38 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/15	USC vs Iowa	-6.5	48.5	W 26 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/22	USC at Oregon	+10.5	59.5	L 27 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/29	USC vs UCLA	-21.0	59.0	W 29 - 10	U	N
Tue 12/30	USC vs TCU	-4.5	56.5	L 27 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for USC's Schedule

Oregon's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon vs Montana State	-28.0	56.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Oregon vs Oklahoma State	-28.5	55.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Oregon at Northwestern	-25.5	50.5	W 34 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon vs Oregon State	-33.5	58.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Oregon at Penn State	+4.5	52.5	W 30 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Oregon vs Indiana	-7.0	51.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon at Rutgers	-17.5	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Oregon vs Wisconsin	-31.5	44.5	W 21 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Oregon at Iowa	-4.5	41.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Fri 11/14	Oregon vs Minnesota	-26.5	45.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Oregon vs USC	-10.5	59.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Oregon at Washington	-6.5	51.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Oregon vs James Madison	-22.5	47.5	W 51 - 34	O	N
Thu 1/1	Oregon vs Texas Tech	+1.5	50.5	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Oregon vs Indiana	+3.0	50.5	L 22 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#8 (.33)	49% (11)	35.8	46% (41)	3.16 (28)	169	52% (4)	296	4.66 (10)	#64 (.16)	45% (119)	23	47% (122)	43% (81)	3.53 (56)	54.2	1.2	1.4
ORE	#13 (.3)	48% (17)	36.9	48% (19)	3.08 (45)	199	49% (13)	254	4.1 (36)	#13 (.05)	36% (12)	17.9	38% (24)	36% (14)	3.9 (92)	49.7	1	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USC	#41 (.24)	48% (11)		52% (10)	3.49 (9)	138	46% (26)	269	3.76 (85)	#78 (.18)	44% (94)		44% (78)	44% (103)	3.64 (49)	46	1.4	1.2
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)		51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)		42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Offense	13	35.8	27.4	48.9%	4.66	1.2	24	465	169	296	5.2	48%	50%	46%	52%	13%	.33
ORE Defense	15	17.9	16.8	36.4%	3.9	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	48%	38%	36%	18%	.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USC Defense	13	23	28.8	45.4%	3.53	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	47%	43%	16%	.16
ORE Offense	15	36.9	43.1	47.8%	4.1	1	22	452	199	254	5.4	52%	46%	48%	49%	11%	.3

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
USC	13	29:50	23.7	51%	64%	5.8	54.2	1.2	1.4	5.5	2.4	2	27.2
Oregon	15	30:48	21.9	47%	56%	5.1	49.7	1	1.5	5	2	5	31.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Offense	13	48% (81)	46% (41)	32.5	169.2	5.2	29 (16)	.18 (36)	3.16 (28)	75% (47)	7% (17)	0.95 (74)
ORE Defense	15	49% (57)	38% (24)	-	-	-	-	.05 (39)	2.72 (35)	71% (69)	10% (68)	0.98 (80)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USC Defense	13	47% (37)	47% (122)	-	-	-	-	.13 (88)	3.29 (125)	67% (32)	11% (34)	0.81 (6)
ORE Offense	15	52% (46)	48% (19)	36.7	198.6	5.4	35 (16)	.23 (16)	3.08 (45)	71% (73)	8% (26)	1.04 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Offense	13	50% (61)	52% (4)	21.5	32.3	296	9.2	13.7	26 (22)	10 (34)	.52 (5)	1.6 (36)	27% (14)	37% (11)	.5 (10)	6% (66)	2.2 (14)
ORE Defense	15	48% (69)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (22)	.15 (26)	1.6 (90)	36% (15)	28% (51)	.21 (30)	9% (6)	2 (61)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USC Defense	13	51% (95)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (12)	.18 (41)	1.6 (76)	29% (110)	33% (116)	.34 (93)	5% (102)	2.1 (112)
ORE Offense	15	46% (93)	49% (13)	20.9	29.1	253.6	8.7	12.2	31 (6)	10 (34)	.42 (16)	1.6 (38)	26% (12)	31% (55)	.39 (36)	3% (6)	2.1 (61)

USC's Power Ratings
USC's Power Rating: 13.95 #26
USC's Offense Rating: 23.87 #16
USC's Defense Rating: 9.92 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 906.00 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
USC's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
USC's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.3 #17
USC's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.4 #11
USC's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.5 #35

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
USC: 13.95 Oregon: 30.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
USC: 17.3 Oregon: 27.1

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 30.37 #4
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.92 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: -1.84 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1 #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.1 #13
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.4 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

USC Scoring
Offense: 35.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.4
Defense: 23 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

USC's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 35
USC 21

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 28
USC 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 33
USC 25

Total Points: 58

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Oregon	42	USC	27	Oregon -10.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2023	11/11	Oregon	36	USC	27	Oregon -12.5	USC	78.5	Under
2020	12/18	USC	24	Oregon	31	USC -3	Oregon	65.5	Under
2019	11/02	USC	24	Oregon	56	Oregon -3.5	Oregon	59.5	Over
2016	11/05	USC	45	Oregon	20	USC -14	USC	76.5	Under
2015	11/21	Oregon	48	USC	28	Oregon -2.5	Oregon	72.0	Over
2012	11/03	USC	51	Oregon	62
2011	11/19	Oregon	35	USC	38
2010	10/30	USC	32	Oregon	53
2009	10/31	Oregon	47	USC	20
2008	10/04	USC	44	Oregon	10
2007	10/27	Oregon	24	USC	17
2006	11/11	USC	35	Oregon	10
2005	09/24	Oregon	13	USC	45
2002	10/26	Oregon	33	USC	44
2001	09/22	Oregon	24	USC	22
2000	10/13	USC	17	Oregon	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	11	4	3 Overs
USC	6	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 8	3 - 3	3 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	8 - 9	3 - 3	1 - 0	2 - 3

(#26) USC at (#4) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	USC	ORE
Net PPPPPP	#19	#5
Power RatePwr	#26	#4
SP+SP+	#17	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#30	#4
OffenseOff	#17	#4
DefenseDef	#73	#7
Spec TeamsST	#124	#14
TalentTal	#21	#3
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#5

USC Notes(11/24) ST's unit has been a disaster all season. Cost vs Oregon
(11/22) WR Tanook Hines (Fr) the next great USC WR?
(11/16) Huge W vs Iowa. Learning to B1G at home?
(11/1) Big W @ Neb (vs QB2). Run Off good, Maiava bad
(10/18) Run Def mauled for 300+ by ND, Maiava good, 3 TOs
(10/18) Mauled Mich up front both sides. 224 rush, big win
(10/12) RB1 Waymond Jordan out til mid November
(9/30) Riley is 0-12 vs spread outside of California
(9/30) Def awful vs Ill, all 500 yds, 8 penalties, 2 TOs, bad L
(9/21) Beatup on cupcakes, back to earth vs Purdue/MSU
(9/21) Defense is far from fixed, Sparty cooked DBs
(9/21) WRs are lethal, Maiava has been great so far
USC Injury Report

Oregon Notes(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report

USC on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	#15	#6
Perf GradePerf	#17	#7
SuccessSuc	#11	#12
ExplosiveExp	#33	#83
PPAPPA	#8	#13
PowerPwr	#16	#4
SP+SP+	#11	#5
Pts POPPO	#10	#92
HavocHav	#32	#21

USC Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#15	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#41	#24
Run ExplRExp	#74	#80
PPAExp	#36	#39
Run BlockR Blk	#110	-
OL YdsOLY	#28	#35
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#100
TackleTak	-	#7

USC Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	USC Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	#4	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#36	#90
PPAExp	#5	#26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#10
F7 HavocF7	#17	#68
DB HavocDB	#66	#6

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
PPPDefPPP	#62	#33
Perf GradePerf	#4	#73
SuccessSuc	#17	#119
ExplosiveExp	#35	#16
PPAPPA	#13	#64
PowerPwr	#4	#44
SP+SP+	#13	#35
Pts POPPO	#36	#56
HavocHav	#4	#63

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
Run GameRun	#2	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#19	#122
Run ExplRExp	#42	#6
PPAExp	#16	#88
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#31	#86
TackleTak	-	#30

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	USC Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#38	#76
PPAExp	#16	#41
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#2	#64
F7 HavocF7	#26	#34
DB HavocDB	#6	#102

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

USC 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 44°

Rematch from Week 13
Oregon -10.5 (59.5)
Oregon won vs USC this year (42-27)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat USC in 2023 (36-27)

USC's OC Josh Henson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	265	403	66%	3711	24	10	9.2
Husan Longstreet	13	15	87%	103	1	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
King Miller	156	972	8	6.2	75
Waymond Jordan	88	576	5	6.5	40
Eli Sanders (Tr)	44	258	2	5.9	20
Jayden Maiava	54	157	6	2.9	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makai Lemon	79	1156	11	14.6	74
Ja'Kobi Lane	49	745	4	15.2	59
Tanook Hines	34	561	2	16.5	51
Lake McRee	30	450	4	15.0	64

View USC's Full Roster

USC's DC D'Anton Lynn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desman Stephens II	86	3	0	1	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2
Christian Pierce	64	3	1	0	3
Bishop Fitzgerald (Tr)	51	3	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameryn Fountain	37	11	6	1	0
Braylan Shelby	27	6	5	4	0
Jide Abasiri	26	4	4	2	0
Eric Gentry	71	7	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kevin Longstreet (Tr)	4	0	0	4
DeCarlos Nicholson	42	1	1	4
Marcelles Williams	37	0	0	4

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	296	412	72%	3565	30	10	8.7
Brock Thomas	12	16	75%	130	1	0	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Whittington	129	829	6	6.4	68
Jordon Davison	112	667	15	6.0	67
Dierre Hill Jr.	75	656	5	8.7	71
Jayden Limar	46	262	3	5.7	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Benson (Tr)	43	719	6	16.7	64
Kenyon Sadiq	51	560	8	11.0	30
Jeremiah McClellan	38	557	3	14.7	51
Jamari Johnson (Tr)	32	510	3	15.9	56

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	132	6	1	5	5
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)	92	4	1	1	5
Aaron Flowers	69	1	0	1	3
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5
Matayo Uiagalelei	34	10	6	7	3
Nasir Wyatt	11	4	3	1	0
Blake Purchase	32	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Finney Jr.	42	3	1	0	7
Jerry Mixon	57	4	1	4	7
A'Mauri Washington	33	5	2	5	7