Alabama at Florida State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -13.5 (50.5) (-500) Open: -13.5 | 50.5
Florida State 31 - Alabama: 17

Crimson Tide (11 - 4) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.3 - 3.7 (#11)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Alabama -9.5 (SP+ ALA -7.5)
Projected Score: ALA: 31 - FSU: 21 (52)
ALA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
ALA Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs behind

Seminoles (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (43 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#86)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ALA Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alabama's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Alabama at Florida State	-13.5	50.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/6	Alabama vs UL Monroe	-34.0	50.0	W 73 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Alabama vs Wisconsin	-17.5	45.5	W 38 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Alabama at Georgia	+2.5	53.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Alabama vs Vanderbilt	-13.5	58.5	W 30 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Alabama at Missouri	-3.5	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/18	Alabama vs Tennessee	-8.5	60.5	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Alabama at South Carolina	-11.5	47.5	W 29 - 22	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Alabama vs LSU	-10.5	49.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Alabama vs Oklahoma	-6.5	45.5	L 21 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/22	Alabama vs Eastern Illinois	-50.5	57.5	W 56 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Alabama at Auburn	-6.5	48.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 12/6	Alabama vs Georgia	+2.5	47.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Fri 12/19	Alabama at Oklahoma	+1.5	42.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Thu 1/1	Alabama vs Indiana	+7.5	46.5	L 3 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule

Florida State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Florida State vs Alabama	+13.5	50.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Florida State vs East Texas A&M	-43.5	56.5	W 77 - 3	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Florida State vs Kent State	-44.5	56.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/26	Florida State at Virginia	-7.0	59.5	L 38 - 46	O	N
Sat 10/4	Florida State vs Miami	+3.5	54.5	L 22 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/11	Florida State vs Pittsburgh	-10.5	56.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/18	Florida State at Stanford	-17.5	55.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Florida State vs Wake Forest	-12.5	50.5	W 42 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Florida State at Clemson	+1.5	56.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/15	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-13.5	53.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Fri 11/21	Florida State at NC State	-7.0	58.5	L 11 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/29	Florida State at Florida	-1.5	48.5	L 21 - 40	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA	#44 (.23)	45% (34)	29.5	45% (52)	2.75 (112)	169	45% (31)	222	4.71 (8)	#8 (.05)	37% (12)	19.2	38% (15)	37% (19)	2.85 (5)	66.3	1.4	2.1
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)	33	40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)	22	42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Offense	13	29.5	26.3	45.2%	4.71	1.4	20	390	169	222	4.8	53%	47%	45%	45%	16%	.23
FSU Defense	12	22	16.1	40.8%	3.62	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	39%	14%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALA Defense	13	19.2	23.7	37.2%	2.85	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	38%	37%	18%	.05
FSU Offense	12	33	43.3	35.4%	2.88	1.8	15	271	91	180	2.9	46%	54%	40%	31%	21%	.06

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alabama	13	27:39	19.7	49%	62%	7.1	66.3	1.4	2.1	4.8	1.8	0	29.8
Florida State	12	27:11	15.2	29%	63%	5.6	47.9	1.8	0.5	5.8	2	1	26.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Offense	13	53% (49)	45% (52)	35.2	168.8	4.8	41 (5)	.21 (28)	2.75 (112)	76% (44)	11% (102)	1.12 (12)
FSU Defense	12	56% (119)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.2 (109)	3.06 (81)	80% (111)	10% (77)	1.1 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALA Defense	13	52% (87)	38% (15)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (8)	2.81 (38)	76% (86)	10% (61)	0.87 (19)
FSU Offense	12	46% (101)	40% (103)	31.4	90.8	2.9	8 (130)	.07 (101)	2.9 (92)	68% (103)	15% (130)	0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Offense	13	47% (84)	45% (31)	16.2	24.7	221.6	9	13.7	16 (87)	10 (63)	.27 (59)	1.5 (78)	28% (21)	31% (77)	.3 (83)	4% (20)	2.3 (4)
FSU Defense	12	44% (15)	39% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.34 (110)	1.8 (120)	33% (45)	34% (110)	.52 (127)	5% (116)	2.3 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALA Defense	13	48% (49)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.12 (22)	1.6 (86)	35% (21)	29% (38)	.25 (44)	8% (15)	2 (56)
FSU Offense	12	54% (35)	31% (130)	14.9	29.6	180.3	6.1	12.1	11 (122)	13 (103)	.04 (130)	1.8 (20)	39% (133)	26% (113)	.24 (102)	6% (62)	2.1 (28)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 23.11 #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.71 #21
Alabama's Defense Rating: -1.40 #5
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 73% #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 11.3 - 3.7
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #20
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2 #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 23.11 Florida State: 9.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 14.8 Florida State: 7.2

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 9.68 #49
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.67 #30
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.51 #59
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #41
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #54
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #38

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 31
Florida State 21

Projected Total Points: 52

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.3
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.1

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Florida State	31	Alabama	17	Alabama -13.5	Florida State	50.5	Under
2017	09/02	Alabama	24	Florida State	7	Alabama -7.5	Alabama	51.0	Under
2007	09/29	Florida State	21	Alabama	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	2	1	0 Overs
Alabama	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#8) ALA at (#49) FSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALA	FSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#8	#49
SP+SP+	#20	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#17	#28
OffenseOff	#36	#21
DefenseDef	#17	#65
Spec TeamsST	#27	#41
TalentTal	#6	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	#2	#17

Alabama Notes(11/16) Run Off exposed vs OU. OG'd OU but TO's costly
(10/15) RB1 Jam Miller ? for Tenn game
(10/11) Avg 140 yds rush pg with Jam Miller, 80 yds without
(10/6) Leads CFB in TO margin +9, Simpson a Heisman fav
(10/3) Have scored on 1st drive in 3 of 4 games (Scripted)
(10/1) DE/LB Qua Russaw out weeks (foot), big depth hit
(9/14) QB Simpson looks good, Run Off just bad?
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
Alabama Injury Report

Florida State Notes(12/16) FSU looks like they aren't serious about 2026
(11/23) Norvell will return in '26. Fund road slate now
(11/22) A straight 0-8 in road ACC games past 2 years
(10/20) Rumors sound toxic, player leadership void
(10/19) Norvell lost 4 straight, 4 times now. 1-11 ACC run
(10/19) OG'd Stanford by 150, still lost for the 4th straight time
(10/19) Castellanos knocked out of Stanford game, dirty hit
(10/12) Norvell w/o Jordan Travis is 7-21.
(10/11) LBs lack speed and huge liability in coverage
(10/11) Noles have lost their last 8 ACC conference games
(9/26) Tackling a huge issue vs UVA, allowed 450+ in L
(8/30) Outrushed Bama 230-87, Cast quick, efficient
Florida State Injury Report

Alabama on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#36	#65
SuccessSuc	#34	#56
ExplosiveExp	#34	#114
PPAPPA	#44	#112
PowerPwr	#21	#59
SP+SP+	#36	#38
Pts POPPO	#8	#46
HavocHav	#63	#98

Alabama Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#93	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#52	#62
Run ExplRExp	#12	#114
PPAExp	#28	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#44	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#121	#88
TackleTak	-	#44

Alabama Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#78	#120
PPAExp	#59	#110
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#9	#93
F7 HavocF7	#102	#77
DB HavocDB	#20	#116

Florida State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#17
SuccessSuc	#128	#12
ExplosiveExp	#58	#47
PPAPPA	#125	#8
PowerPwr	#30	#5
SP+SP+	#54	#11
Pts POPPO	#131	#5
HavocHav	#129	#41

Florida State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#28	#17
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#15
Run ExplRExp	#118	#19
PPAExp	#101	#8
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#38
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#53
TackleTak	-	#24

Florida State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#86
PPAExp	#130	#22
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#127
F7 HavocF7	#130	#61
DB HavocDB	#62	#15

Program Comparison
FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Alabama 13.5 (50.5)
Florida State won vs Alabama this year (31-17)

Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Alabama last year (31-17)

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ty Simpson	305	473	65%	3567	28	5	7.5
Austin Mack	24	32	75%	228	2	0	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamarion Miller	130	504	3	3.9	24
Daniel Hill	75	284	6	3.8	30
Kevin Riley	59	224	2	3.8	22
AK Dear	19	140	3	7.4	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Germie Bernard	64	862	7	13.5	43
Ryan Williams	49	689	4	14.1	75
Isaiah Horton (Tr)	42	511	8	12.2	37
Lotzeir Brooks	32	441	2	13.8	53

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deontae Lawson	80	5	2	1	4
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Nikhai Hill-Green (Tr)	54	5	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Yhonzae Pierre	52	15	8	8	1
Lebbeus Overton	40	6	4	4	1
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5
Keon Keeley	13	3	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brayson Hubbard	74	5	2	1	8
Zabien Brown	39	3	0	0	6
Justin Jefferson	79	7	3	2	5

FSU's OC Gus Malzahn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	180	309	58%	2760	15	9	8.9
Kevin Sperry	12	17	71%	194	2	0	11.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)	137	557	9	4.1	26
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)	109	486	8	4.5	40
Ousmane Kromah	72	408	0	5.7	23
Samuel Singleton	51	360	4	7.1	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)	56	1074	6	19.2	82
Micahi Danzy	27	571	3	21.1	66
Lawayne McCoy	27	403	3	14.9	34
Randy Pittman (Tr)	23	208	2	9.0	35

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Earl Little II	76	2	0	0	2
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Darrell Jackson	44	2	1	1	0
Blake Nichelson	43	7	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mandrell Desir	30	8	7	1	1
Ashlynd Barker	48	5	4	1	2
Stefon Thompson (Tr)	37	4	4	1	0
Daniel Lyons	26	4	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Edwin Joseph	37	4	5
Earl Little II	76	2	2
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)	42	1	2