Alabama at Florida State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Alabama logo (#8)Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -13.5 (50.5) (-500)  Open: -13.5 | 50.5
Florida State 31 - Alabama: 17

 
Crimson Tide (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 43 - 15 (17 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Alabama -7   (SP+ ALA -15)
Projected Score: ALA: 31 - FSU: 24 (55)
ALA Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
ALA Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs behind
Seminoles (2 - 0) (2 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 54 - 10 (54 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 2.3 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Alabama at Florida State-13.550.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/6 Alabama vs UL Monroe-34.050.0W 73 - 0OY
Sat 9/13 Alabama vs Wisconsin-17.545.5W 38 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Alabama at Georgia+0
Sat 10/4 Alabama vs Vanderbilt-13.5
Sat 10/11 Alabama at Missouri-2.5
Sat 10/18 Alabama vs Tennessee-9
Sat 10/25 Alabama at South Carolina-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Alabama vs LSU-8.5
Sat 11/15 Alabama vs Oklahoma-5
Sat 11/22 Alabama vs Eastern Illinois-52.5
Sat 11/29 Alabama at Auburn-2

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Florida State vs Alabama+13.550.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-43.556.5W 77 - 3OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-45.555.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-8.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+3.5
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-11.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-18.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-20
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson-1.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-27
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State-8.5
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+0.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#12 (.45)51% (27)42.742% (86)3.25 (42)12457% (12)3365.26 (23)#84 (.16)36% (44)1536% (43)38% (56)4.43 (102)60.702
FSU#8 (.5)43% (76)5445% (63)3.22 (45)29636% (109)2605.5 (13)#31 (.01)37% (50)1037% (51)37% (46)2.5 (34)37.511
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#44 (.23)45% (34)45% (52)2.75 (112)16945% (31)2224.71 (8)#8 (.05)37% (12)38% (15)37% (19)2.85 (5)66.31.42.1
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)40% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)42% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense342.71751%5.260234591243364.340%60%42%57%8%.45
FSU Defense2101036.6%2.51 - - - - - 44%56%37%37%22%.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense3153136%4.432 - - - - - 66%32%36%38%18%.16
FSU Offense2545442.6%5.51255562962605.973%27%45%36%10%.5

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama330:512346%56%6.760.7026.31.7036.7
Florida State231:1024.558%100%3.537.51183032.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense340% (126)42% (86)29123.74.34 (79).09 (87)3.25 (42)83% (28)6% (16)0.79 (108)
FSU Defense244% (31)37% (51) - - - - -.01 (45)2.96 (87)43% (10)15% (17)0.78 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense366% (134)36% (43) - - - - .13 (96)3.14 (107)83% (110)14% (23)1.09 (95)
FSU Offense273% (4)45% (63)50295.55.99 (17).36 (19)3.22 (45)64% (99)9% (73)1.43 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense360% (11)57% (12)25.335.3335.79.513.313 (2)0 (1).69 (8)1.7 (26)28% (44)36% (40).67 (22)3% (16)2.6 (6)
FSU Defense256% (111)37% (46) - - - - - - 2 (56).04 (26)1.6 (95)33% (62)23% (35).12 (35)7% (34)2.6 (128)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense332% (2)38% (56) - - - - - - 3 (28).24 (75)2 (133)37% (33)31% (81).44 (106)4% (103)2.1 (92)
FSU Offense227% (133)36% (109)12.51726015.320.86 (34)0 (1).85 (3)3.4 (1)28% (43)35% (51).72 (15)1% (2)2.8 (3)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 31.97 #8
Alabama's Offense Rating: 31.03 #4
Alabama's Defense Rating: -2.84 #16
2025 Talent Rating: 1064.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 73% #2
Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #6
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 31.97   Florida State: 22.225

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 26.4   Florida State: 11.3




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.225 #15
Florida State's Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Florida State's Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 42.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 15 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 31
Florida State 24


Total Points: 55

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 54 PPG
Offense at Home: 54
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Florida State31Alabama17Florida StateAlabama -13.5Florida State50.5Under
201709/02Alabama24Florida State7AlabamaAlabama -7.5Alabama51.0Under
200709/29Florida State21Alabama14Florida State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State210 Overs
Alabama112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#8) Alabama Info
Power Rating: 31.97 #8
Offense Rating: 31.03 #4
Defense Rating: -2.84 #16
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.4 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 39.8 #6
Defense SP+ Rating: 13.6 #5
Talent Rating: 1064.00 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 73% #2
Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5.26 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Great Pass Success 57%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 36%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.43 PPO
Good Run Def Success 36%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Alabama Notes
(9/3) DT J Beaman out for season (lower body)
(8/30) Outrushed 230-87 vs FSU, Simpson a JAG?
(8/30) Offense 6-17 on 3rd, 2-5 on 4th down. Issues
(8/27) DL Tim Keenan out multiple weeks (ankle inj)
(8/17) RB Jam Miller out 6-8 weeks (collarbone)
(5/23) Secondary top 3 in CFB w/ a great CB duo
(5/23) OL returns 3/5 + portals = top 15 unit in CFB
(5/7) Fr WR Lotzeir Brooks flashed in spring will play
(5/2) CB Calhoun, LB Lawson, S Hubbard top 10 via PFF
(4/13) QB Simpson will start, Fr. Russell the future

Alabama Highlights
Alabama offense is efficent (#27)
Alabama offense is explosive (#21)
Alabama offense is good in red zone (#23)
Alabama offense is good on 3rd downs
Alabama Front 7 is disruptive (#23)
Alabama has a great TO Margin (#1)
Alabama defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Alabama Deficiencies
Alabama Can Not Run the Ball (#101)
Alabama gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#107)
Alabama Does Not Stuff Runs (#107)
Alabama has a bad defensive line (#107)
Alabama has a bad red zone defense (#102)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFSUALA
OverallOver#45#25
OffenseOff#35#29
DefenseDef#64#27
Special TeamsST#82#19
PassingPass#26#15
RushingRush#18#59
Run BlockRBLK#94#75
Pass BlockPBLK#6#48
Route RunningWR Rt#42#15
TacklingTkl#100#79
Run DefenseR Def#15#25
Pass Rush DefPRush#81#96
Coverage DefCov#91#27

Rematch from Week 1
Alabama 13.5 (50.5)
Florida State won vs Alabama this year (31-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ALA | FSU
Depth Chart: ALA | FSU
Rosters: ALA | FSU
(#15) Florida State Info
Power Rating: 22.225 #15
Offense Rating: 23.39 #25
Defense Rating: -4.76 #9
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.3 #32
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #52
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #22
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 45 #17
Expected Record: 9.7 - 2.3

Team Profile
Option Offense 73%, Pass: 27%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 43%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.5 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 36%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 37%
Good in Scoring Position 2.5 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 37%
Avg Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida State Notes
(8/30) Def great vs Bama, held 6-17 3rd, 2-5 4th downs
(8/16) S. Hussey kicked off team after fight w/ coach
(7/18) Entire staff/roster to raise floor, save jobs
(7/13) Watch Fr RB Kromah, RBs talent but ? prod
(7/13) OC Malzahn interesting, DC White good (3-3-5)
(6/19) Spring was a wash on Off w/ so many injuries
(5/31) 8 win ceiling, lower & fan interest could plummet
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?

Florida State Highlights
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread
Florida State in Undefeated
Florida State is Undefeated at Home
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Florida State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Florida State offense is explosive (#1)
Florida State offense is good in red zone (#13)
Florida State offense is good on 3rd downs
Florida State Front 7 is disruptive (#17)
Florida State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Florida State commits very few Penalties (#1)

Florida State Deficiencies
Florida State pass game is really bad (#109)


  
Alabama's OC Ryan Grubb
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ty Simpson648972%862909.7
Austin Mack81173%80207.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Riley2312005.222
AK Dear785112.156
Richard Young194812.56
Ty Simpson174512.619
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Germie Bernard15275318.343
Ryan Williams10195219.575
Isaiah Horton (Tr)9105211.729
Lotzeir Brooks688014.719

View Alabama's Full Roster
Alabama's DC Kane Wommack
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deontae Lawson101000
Keon Sabb91100
Brayson Hubbard81012
Justin Jefferson71011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Qua Russaw31100
London Simmons41100
Keon Sabb91100
Yhonzae Pierre73120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard81012
Justin Jefferson71011
Zabien Brown30001

Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)172568%3893015.6
Kevin Sperry4580%612012.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micahi Danzy4109227.353
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)208514.314
Samuel Singleton482120.553
Ousmane Kromah126805.720
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson (Tr)7191227.382
Jaylin Lucas371023.764
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)256128.053
Ousmane Kromah250125.043

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Earl Little II111001
Justin Cryer101000
Ashlynd Barker70002
Ja'Bril Rawls60001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Stefon Thompson (Tr)31100
Daniel Lyons32120
Tyeland Coleman21100
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)11100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ashlynd Barker70002
Earl Little II111001
Blake Nichelson52011