Mississippi State at Texas A&M Game Matchup
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M AggiesTexas A&M logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Kyle Field - College Station, TX  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
TA&M 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -23   (SP+ TA&M -19)
Projected Score: MSST: 15 - TA&M: 38 (56)
TA&M Win prob: 95% | Cover: 56%
MSST Travel: 484 miles
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 22 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 3.6 (#24)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-14.00.0
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+11
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-25
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-14.5
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+13.5
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+23
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+20.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+24.5
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+10.5
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+23.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+14
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+14

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Texas A&M vs UTSA-21.00.0
Sat 9/6 Texas A&M vs Utah State-40.5
Sat 9/13 Texas A&M at Notre Dame+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Texas A&M vs Auburn-7.5
Sat 10/4 Texas A&M vs Mississippi State-23
Sat 10/11 Texas A&M vs Florida-5
Sat 10/18 Texas A&M at Arkansas-10
Sat 10/25 Texas A&M at LSU+6
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Texas A&M at Missouri-7
Sat 11/15 Texas A&M vs South Carolina-8.5
Sat 11/22 Texas A&M vs Samford-45.5
Sat 11/29 Texas A&M at Texas+9

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)30.446% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)22.240% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TA&M0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
TA&M Defense1322.215.138.1%3.031.3 - - - - - 47%53%40%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13350.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
TA&M Offense1330.430.744.8%3.631203721851884.957%43%46%43%12%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Texas A&M1329:1319.645%41%6.960.711.36.61.8238.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
TA&M Defense1347% (35)40% (38) - - - - .1 (60)2.55 (10)77% (89)11% (46)1.11 (117)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
TA&M Offense1357% (21)46% (38)37.8184.54.926 (36).19 (37)3.29 (27)73% (68)7% (12)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
TA&M Defense1353% (105)37% (22) - - - - - - 13 (31).22 (62)1.8 (131)36% (11)30% (69).37 (94)8% (2)2.3 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
TA&M Offense1343% (112)43% (58)14.624.5187.87.712.916 (87)9 (48).25 (70)1.6 (72)30% (48)34% (43).35 (61)5% (28)1.9 (112)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.30   Texas A&M: 24.625

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -1.4   Texas A&M: 17.2




Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 24.625 #9
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 26.08 #11
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: -0.97 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1016.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #7
Texas A&M's 2025 Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6
Texas A&M's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.2 #15
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #18
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas A&M 38
Mississippi State 15

Projected Total Points: 56
Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Texas A&M's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Mississippi State24Texas A&M34Texas A&MTexas A&M -21Mississippi State55.5Over
202311/11Texas A&M51Mississippi State10Texas A&MTexas A&M -16.5Texas A&M40.5Over
202210/01Mississippi State42Texas A&M24Mississippi StateMississippi State -4Mississippi State45.0Over
202110/02Texas A&M22Mississippi State26Mississippi StateTexas A&M -7Mississippi State45.5Over
202010/17Mississippi State14Texas A&M28Texas A&MTexas A&M -4.5Texas A&M56.0Under
201910/26Texas A&M49Mississippi State30Texas A&MTexas A&M -10.5Texas A&M50.0Over
201810/27Mississippi State28Texas A&M13Mississippi StateMississippi State -1.5Mississippi State42.5Under
201710/28Texas A&M14Mississippi State35Mississippi StateMississippi State -3.5Mississippi State55.5Under
201611/05Mississippi State35Texas A&M28Mississippi StateTexas A&M -13Mississippi State61.0Over
201510/03Texas A&M30Mississippi State17Texas A&MTexas A&M -6Texas A&M62.5Under
201410/04Mississippi State48Texas A&M31Mississippi StateTexas A&M -1Mississippi State0
201311/09Texas A&M51Mississippi State41Texas A&MTexas A&M -19Mississippi State0
201211/03Mississippi State13Texas A&M38Texas A&M
200012/30Mississippi State43Texas A&M41Mississippi State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas A&M746 Overs
Mississippi State784 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 58 - 45 - 23 - 2
Road Teams5 - 94 - 82 - 32 - 5

(#55) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72
Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Mississippi State Notes
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
(3/18) OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
(3/18) Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?
Mississippi State     Ratings Matchup     Texas A&M
Power #55
#9
Off #38
#11
Def #71
#4
Talent #48
#10
SP+ #71
#15
SP+ Off #60
#18
SP+ Def #72
#18

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State last year (34-24)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2023 (51-10)
Mississippi State beat Texas A&M in 2022 (42-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | TA&M
Depth Chart: MSST | TA&M
Rosters: MSST | TA&M
(#9) Texas A&M Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 24.625 #9
Offense Rating: 26.08 #11
Defense Rating: -0.97 #4
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.2 #15
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #18
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #18
Talent Rating: 1016.00 #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 55 #7
Expected Record: 8.4 - 3.6

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Great Field Position


Texas A&M Notes
(5/21) Elko says RB Moss is full go for fall camp
(5/11) OL has top 20 exp & all of it returning/no portal
(4/30) WR should be better, Concepcion +3 portals
(4/30) DL dominated OL in spring, allowed no run game
(4/4) LB Taurean York a top 10 LB via PFF
(4/4) A. Reed-Adams (G) a top IOL via PFF
(3/20) WR Bussey a big croot, came on late (was CB)
(3/20) QB Reed decent, but need more in '25
(3/20) RBs should be loaded w/ Daniels/Moss/Owens
(3/19) Def v good, new pass rush needed. Top unit


  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen7410869%974819.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)448452%502326.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)112834137.459
Davon Booth15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Markus Allen (Tr)42636315.178
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Cam Thompson (Tr)27388314.454
Seydou Traore34361110.632

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Jahron Manning (Tr)856103
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)85520
Zakari Tillman304412
Will Whitson (Tr)204220
Raishein Thomas (Tr)122201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayven Williams (Tr)292214
Jahron Manning (Tr)856103
Isaac Smith1272003

Texas A&M's OC Collin Klein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Marcel Reed14724061%18641567.8
Jacob Zeno (Tr)8211870%819656.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Le'Veon Moss121765106.375
Amari Daniels13966184.871
Marcel Reed11654774.731
E.J. Smith5420703.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Concepcion (Tr)5345968.742
Mario Craver (Tr)17368321.672
Terry Bussey17216012.733
Theo Melin Ohrstrom10184218.430

View Texas A&M's Full Roster
Texas A&M's DC Jay Bateman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taurean York8310324
Dalton Brooks596132
Marcus Ratcliffe484010
Scooby Williams438024
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cashius Howell409487
T.J. Searcy (Tr)344310
Taurean York8310324
Dayon Hayes (Tr)164200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Lee III4210010
Cashius Howell409487
Jordan Shaw (Tr)374016