Mississippi State at Texas A&M - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies

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Saturday, October 4th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -17.5 (57.5) (-900)  Open: -13.5
Texas A&M 31 - Mississippi State: 9  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
TA&M 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Texas A&M -18  (SP+ TA&M -17)

Projected Score: MSST: 19 - TA&M: 37 (56)
TA&M Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 484 miles
Aggies (11 - 2) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (8 - 4)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 1.4 (#9)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Texas A&M's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas A&M vs UTSA-21.556.5W 42 - 24ON
Sat 9/6 Texas A&M vs Utah State-34.557.5W 44 - 22ON
Sat 9/13 Texas A&M at Notre Dame+7.548.5W 41 - 40OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Texas A&M vs Auburn-6.551.5W 16 - 10UN
Sat 10/4 Texas A&M vs Mississippi State-17.557.5W 31 - 9UY
Sat 10/11 Texas A&M vs Florida-7.047.5W 34 - 17OY
Sat 10/18 Texas A&M at Arkansas-7.557.5W 45 - 42ON
Sat 10/25 Texas A&M at LSU-1.550.5W 49 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Texas A&M at Missouri-7.048.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/15 Texas A&M vs South Carolina-16.549.5W 31 - 30ON
Sat 11/22 Texas A&M vs Samford-54.559.5W 48 - 0UN
Fri 11/28 Texas A&M at Texas-2.554.5L 17 - 27UN
Sat 12/20 Texas A&M vs Miami-3.048.5L 3 - 10UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)33.846% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)2140% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TA&M0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1230.425.839.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
TA&M Defense132115.338.1%3.031.3 - - - - - 47%53%40%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1230.23150.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
TA&M Offense1333.831.144.8%3.631203721851884.957%43%46%43%12%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Texas A&M1329:1319.645%41%6.960.711.36.61.8238.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
TA&M Defense1347% (35)40% (38) - - - - .1 (60)2.55 (10)77% (89)11% (46)1.11 (117)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
TA&M Offense1357% (21)46% (38)37.8184.54.926 (36).19 (37)3.29 (27)73% (68)7% (12)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
TA&M Defense1353% (105)37% (22) - - - - - - 13 (31).22 (62)1.8 (131)36% (11)30% (69).37 (94)8% (2)2.3 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
TA&M Offense1343% (112)43% (58)14.624.5187.87.712.916 (87)9 (48).25 (70)1.6 (72)30% (48)34% (43).35 (61)5% (28)1.9 (112)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 11.40  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 11.40   Texas A&M: 25.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1   Texas A&M: 20.7




Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 25.85  #5
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 26.80  #5
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 0.80  #11
2025 Talent Rating: 990.00  #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #6
Texas A&M's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 1.4
Texas A&M's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.0  #11
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.4  #14

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Texas A&M 37
Mississippi State 19


Projected Total Points: 56
Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.1
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Texas A&M's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04Texas A&M31Mississippi State9Texas A&M -17.5Texas A&M57.5Under
202410/19Mississippi State24Texas A&M34Texas A&M -21Mississippi State55.5Over
202311/11Texas A&M51Mississippi State10Texas A&M -16.5Texas A&M40.5Over
202210/01Mississippi State42Texas A&M24Mississippi State -4Mississippi State45.0Over
202110/02Texas A&M22Mississippi State26Texas A&M -7Mississippi State45.5Over
202010/17Mississippi State14Texas A&M28Texas A&M -4.5Texas A&M56.0Under
201910/26Texas A&M49Mississippi State30Texas A&M -10.5Texas A&M50.0Over
201810/27Mississippi State28Texas A&M13Mississippi State -1.5Mississippi State42.5Under
201710/28Texas A&M14Mississippi State35Mississippi State -3.5Mississippi State55.5Under
201611/05Mississippi State35Texas A&M28Texas A&M -13Mississippi State61.0Over
201510/03Texas A&M30Mississippi State17Texas A&M -6Texas A&M62.5Under
201410/04Mississippi State48Texas A&M31Texas A&M -1Mississippi State0
201311/09Texas A&M51Mississippi State41Texas A&M -19Mississippi State0
201211/03Mississippi State13Texas A&M38
200012/30Mississippi State43Texas A&M41
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas A&M856 Overs
Mississippi State785 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 59 - 46 - 23 - 2
Road Teams5 - 104 - 92 - 32 - 6

(#38) MSST at (#5) TA&M
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTTA&M
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #38 #5
SP+SP+ #58 #9
Perf GradeGrade #105 #25
OffenseOff #84 #48
DefenseDef #119 #17
Spec TeamsST #77 #17
TalentTal #40 #11
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #6
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Texas A&M Notes
(12/15) Hired Holmon Wiggins as OC, coached WR '24-'25
(12/12) Hired DC Lyle Memphill to replace Jay Bateman at DC
(11/28) RB1 Le'Veon Moss out for Texas, still unable to play
(11/15) WR3 Bethel-Roman non-contact inj vs S.Car
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in scoring opportunites
(10/18) Survived Ark, Off was great, Def was torched for 527
(10/15) Only have one SEC home game left (11/15 - S Car)
(10/12) Def has held opp to 2 of 33 on 3rd down in SEC play
(10/8) OL is highest graded via PFF, heavy Run Off 55%
(10/1) Most penalized team in CFB at 9.5 per game
(10/1) Last in SEC in 3rd down conversions at 31%
(9/27) Offense torched ND, WR are electric, Def not great
Texas A&M Injury Report
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffTA&M Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #17
SuccessSuc #109 #23
ExplosiveExp #6 #131
PPAPPA #78 #67
PowerPwr #24 #11
SP+SP+ #39 #14
Pts POPPO #86 #9
HavocHav #127 #17
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffTA&M Def
Run GameRun #68 #32
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #38
Run ExplRExp #28 #117
PPAExp #92 #60
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #10
Stuff RateStuff #44 #8
TackleTak -  #85
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffTA&M Def
Pass GamePass #43 #24
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #22
Pass ExplPExl #18 #131
PPAExp #76 #62
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #14
F7 HavocF7 #122 #46
DB HavocDB #116 #2
Texas A&M on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatTA&M OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #48 #119
SuccessSuc #41 #133
ExplosiveExp #106 #18
PPAPPA #54 #130
PowerPwr #5 #44
SP+SP+ #11 #84
Pts POPPO #93 #113
HavocHav #13 #134
Texas A&M Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
TA&M OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #45 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #108
Run ExplRExp #66 #13
PPAExp #37 #80
Run BlockR Blk #54 -
OL YdsOLY #27 #113
Stuff RateStuff #29 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Texas A&M Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatTA&M OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #92 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #58 #134
Pass ExplPExl #72 #48
PPAExp #70 #134
Pass Block/RushP Blk #27 #132
F7 HavocF7 #12 #133
DB HavocDB #28 #123
Program Comparison
TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 10 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Texas A&M -17.5 (57.5)
Texas A&M won vs Mississippi State this year (31-9)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State last year (31-9)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2024 (34-24)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2023 (51-10)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014

TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Marcel Reed23437762%316925128.4
Miles O'Neill71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rueben Owens11963955.457
Marcel Reed10449364.746
Le'Veon Moss7740465.238
Amari Daniels4121615.341
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Concepcion (Tr)61919915.148
Mario Craver (Tr)58911415.786
Ashton Bethel-Roman24503521.076
Nate Boerkircher (Tr)20204310.228

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taurean York727153
Marcus Ratcliffe663023
Dalton Brooks616331
Daymion Sanford5710432
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cashius Howell32151356
Daymion Sanford5710432
Dayon Hayes (Tr)174461
Dalton Brooks616331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Lee III502107
Cashius Howell32151356
Dezz Ricks261005