Miami at Florida State Game Matchup
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at Florida State SeminolesFlorida State logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Field at Doak Campbell Stadium - Tallahassee, FL  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (22 - 15)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
MIAMI coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami -10   (SP+ MIAMI -11.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 33 - FSU: 23 (56)
MIAMI Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MIAMI Travel: 396 miles
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (33 - 27)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#60)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
 
Miami's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 8/31 Miami vs Notre Dame+2.554.0
Sat 9/6 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-43.5
Sat 9/13 Miami vs South Florida-22
Sat 9/20 Miami vs Florida-3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Miami at Florida State-10
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 Miami vs Louisville-10.5
Sat 10/25 Miami vs Stanford-28
Sat 11/1 Miami at SMU-4
Sat 11/8 Miami vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/15 Miami vs NC State-16.5
Sat 11/22 Miami at Virginia Tech-12
Sat 11/29 Miami at Pittsburgh-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Florida State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Florida State vs Alabama+11.550.5
Sat 9/6 Florida State vs East Texas A&M-31
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Florida State vs Kent State-36.5
Fri 9/26 Florida State at Virginia-5.5
Sat 10/4 Florida State vs Miami+10
Sat 10/11 Florida State vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 10/18 Florida State at Stanford-11
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Florida State vs Wake Forest-17
Sat 11/8 Florida State at Clemson+20.5
Sat 11/15 Florida State vs Virginia Tech-4.5
Fri 11/21 Florida State at NC State+1
Sat 11/29 Florida State at Florida+14.5

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI#2 (.4)52% (1)43.956% (1)3.59 (4)16550% (7)3324.96 (2)#69 (.16)38% (26)25.338% (16)38% (40)4.02 (91)63.111.4
FSU#125 (.06)35% (128)15.440% (103)2.9 (92)9131% (130)1802.88 (131)#112 (.25)41% (56)2842% (62)39% (52)3.62 (46)47.91.80.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1343.940.552.5%4.961254971653325.543%57%56%50%10%.4
FSU Defense122822.740.8%3.620.5 - - - - - 56%44%42%39%14%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1325.330.838.1%4.021.4 - - - - - 45%55%38%38%18%.16
FSU Offense1215.416.435.4%2.881.815271911802.946%54%40%31%21%.06

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1330:1325.256%65%6.263.111.45.92.6129.7
Florida State1227:1115.229%63%5.647.91.80.55.82126.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1343% (114)56% (1)30.1165.55.528 (25).32 (5)3.59 (4)90% (1)6% (3)0.95 (73)
FSU Defense1256% (119)42% (62) - - - - .2 (109)3.06 (81)80% (111)10% (77)1.1 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1345% (11)38% (16) - - - - .08 (49)2.6 (16)57% (4)11% (43)1.15 (125)
FSU Offense1246% (101)40% (103)31.490.82.98 (130).07 (101)2.9 (92)68% (103)15% (130)0.87 (118)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1357% (20)50% (7)23.935.1331.69.513.938 (1)7 (26).47 (6)1.7 (26)27% (5)42% (1).69 (1)4% (15)2.3 (6)
FSU Defense1244% (15)39% (52) - - - - - - 4 (125).34 (110)1.8 (120)33% (45)34% (110).52 (127)5% (116)2.3 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1355% (125)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (23).23 (66)1.7 (113)36% (9)36% (123).45 (115)7% (34)2.1 (84)
FSU Offense1254% (35)31% (130)14.929.6180.36.112.111 (122)13 (103).04 (130)1.8 (20)39% (133)26% (113).24 (102)6% (62)2.1 (28)

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 20.96 #15
Miami's Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Miami's Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
2025 Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49% #9
Miami's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Miami's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 20.96   Florida State: 10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 18.8   Florida State: 7.2




Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 10.105 #44
Florida State's Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Florida State's Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
2025 Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Florida State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Florida State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 33
Florida State 23

Projected Total Points: 56
Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Miami36Florida State14MiamiMiami -22.5Florida State55.0Under
202311/11Florida State27Miami20Florida StateFlorida State -14.5Miami50.5Under
202211/05Miami3Florida State45Florida StateFlorida State -6.5Florida State54.0Under
202111/13Florida State31Miami28Florida StateMiami -2.5Florida State61.5Under
202009/26Miami52Florida State10MiamiMiami -12.5Miami54.0Over
201911/02Florida State10Miami27MiamiFlorida State -3Miami50.0Under
201810/06Miami28Florida State27MiamiMiami -14Florida State48.5Over
201710/07Florida State20Miami24MiamiMiami -3Miami45.5Under
201610/08Miami19Florida State20Florida StateMiami -1.5Florida State61.5Under
201510/10Florida State29Miami24Florida StateFlorida State -9Miami54.0Under
201411/15Miami26Florida State30Florida StateFlorida State -2.5Florida State0
201311/02Florida State41Miami14Florida StateFlorida State -21Florida State0
201210/20Miami20Florida State33Florida State
201111/12Florida State23Miami19Florida State
201010/09Miami17Florida State45Florida State
200909/07Florida State34Miami38Miami
200810/04Miami39Florida State41Florida State
200710/20Florida State29Miami37Miami
200609/04Miami10Florida State13Florida State
200509/05Florida State10Miami7Florida State
200409/10Miami16Florida State10Miami
200301/01Florida State14Miami16Miami
200310/11Florida State14Miami22Miami
200210/12Miami28Florida State27Miami
200110/13Florida State27Miami49Miami
200010/06Miami27Florida State24Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida State1372 Overs
Miami1358 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 143 - 92 - 61 - 3
Road Teams14 - 129 - 33 - 16 - 2

(#15) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 20.96 #15
Offense Rating: 29.31 #6
Defense Rating: 8.35 #29
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.8 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 43.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #44
Talent Rating: 966.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 49% #9
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Miami Notes
(5/21) Def very talented, why so bad? DBs 7 portals
(5/21) ACC sched easy outside @ SMU, OOC hard
(5/21) QBs Beck (UGA) supposedly good to go summer
(5/21) OL one of CFBs best, 4/5 back. Deep, big
(5/3) Fr WR Malachi Toney is a playmaker, will play
(4/4) DE Bain a top 10 DE via PFF. Hurt LY
(4/4) OT Francis Mauigoa a top OT via PFF
(3/28) New DC Hetherman has 1 yr DC exp (Minn)
(3/20) TE Lofton a name to watch. Very athletic
(3/18) RBs Fletcher big time, Lyle good depth
Miami     Ratings Matchup     Florida State
Power #15
#44
Off #6
#58
Def #29
#28
Talent #16
#17
SP+ #12
#36
SP+ Off #1
#58
SP+ Def #44
#28

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Florida State last year (36-14)
Florida State beat Miami in 2023 (27-20)
Florida State beat Miami in 2022 (45-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | FSU
Depth Chart: MIAMI | FSU
Rosters: MIAMI | FSU
(#44) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 10.105 #44
Offense Rating: 15.69 #58
Defense Rating: 7.68 #28
Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #58
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #28
Talent Rating: 922.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 42 #16
Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Florida State Notes
(5/31) Watch Fr RB O. Kromah, RBs aren't great above
(5/31) Def depth key, lack stars, DT Jackson has tools
(5/31) OL 4/5 starters & 80% overall exp via 6 portals
(5/31) WRs Robinson(USC) big add, depth a huge ?
(5/21) Off could start 8 portals. New OC. Total wildcard
(5/21) Def looks OK, portal DEs, CB is a ?, New DC
(5/21) Norvell 3 of 5 yrs sub .500. Crootin meh
(3/22) Portal class includes 7 P4 starters from LY
(3/19) QB Castellanos (BC), new OC Malzahn
(3/19) Def OK LY considering, need much more TY


  
Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck (Tr)29044865%348528127.8
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Keelan Marion (Tr)219624.618
Carson Beck (Tr)557111.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels (Tr)42480011.434
Tony Johnson (Tr)4945269.223
Keelan Marion (Tr)24346114.452
Alex Bauman (Tr)15171611.436

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Corey Hetherman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Kamal Bonner (Tr)567160
David Blay (Tr)4510620
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay (Tr)4510620
Akheem Mesidor329620
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zechariah Poyser (Tr)773008
Ethan O'Connor (Tr)301018
Charles Brantley (Tr)272007

Florida State's OC Gus Malzahn
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9916162%13661858.5
Brock Glenn5111445%597455.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Thomas Castellanos (Tr)9319412.118
Kam Davis5217303.316
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)3912813.321
Brock Glenn359702.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randy Pittman (Tr)32416213.048
Duce Robinson (Tr)23396517.248
Squirrel White (Tr)34381211.245
Landen Thomas14173112.435

View Florida State's Full Roster
Florida State's DC Tony White
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shyheim Brown621002
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Deante McCray (Tr)553220
K.J. Kirkland451002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deamontae Diggs (Tr)347562
James Williams (Tr)146540
Darrell Jackson284441
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jeremiah Wilson (Tr)244004
Elijah Herring (Tr)598434
Omar Graham Jr.374113