New Mexico at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (7:00 PM EST)
New Mexico -3.5 (53.5) (-155) Open: -2.5 | 58.5
New Mexico 20 - Air Force: 3 (Mountain West)

Lobos (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: New Mexico -1.5 (SP+ UNM -4.5)
Projected Score: UNM: 27 - AFA: 26 (53)
UNM Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 289 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (28 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico at Michigan	+36.5	52.5	L 17 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/6	New Mexico vs Idaho State	-17.5	60.0	W 32 - 22	U	N
Fri 9/12	New Mexico at UCLA	+15.5	52.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-16.5	53.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Fri 10/3	New Mexico at San José State	+1.5	58.5	L 28 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+14.5	58.5	L 25 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/18	New Mexico vs Nevada	-14.0	49.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/25	New Mexico vs Utah State	-3.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/1	New Mexico at UNLV	+3.5	61.5	W 40 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	New Mexico vs Colorado State	-15.5	53.5	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/22	New Mexico at Air Force	-3.5	53.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Fri 11/28	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+1.5	41.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/26	New Mexico vs Minnesota	+1.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Air Force's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Air Force vs Bucknell	-31.0	54.5	W 49 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Air Force at Utah State	-4.0	51.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/20	Air Force vs Boise State	+10.5	51.5	L 37 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/27	Air Force vs Hawai'i	-7.0	52.5	L 35 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/4	Air Force at Navy	+13.5	50.5	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Air Force at UNLV	+7.0	65.5	L 48 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/18	Air Force vs Wyoming	-4.0	56.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Air Force vs Army	+1.5	48.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/8	Air Force at San José State	+6.0	67.5	W 26 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Air Force at UConn	+7.5	64.5	L 16 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/22	Air Force vs New Mexico	+3.5	53.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Fri 11/28	Air Force at Colorado State	-2.5	47.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 6, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 5, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 4, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#65 (.18)	42% (76)	27.1	43% (78)	3.15 (33)	143	42% (71)	198	3.96 (44)	#48 (.11)	40% (51)	22.3	40% (49)	40% (59)	3.12 (25)	44.6	1.7	1.2
AFA	#18 (.29)	47% (20)	29.8	48% (24)	3.27 (18)	262	47% (21)	145	4.6 (13)	#136 (.41)	50% (134)	30.3	46% (110)	54% (136)	4.28 (123)	31.3	1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	#14 (.31)	49% (10)		53% (3)	3.81 (1)	254	44% (40)	231	3.83 (79)	#132 (.34)	50% (132)		50% (125)	51% (131)	4.64 (128)	81.5	1.6	0.8
AFA	#103 (.13)	42% (77)		45% (60)	3.03 (68)	225	31% (131)	90	4.02 (56)	#88 (.2)	42% (68)		41% (47)	43% (89)	3.97 (84)	28	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	13	27.1	27.5	41.8%	3.96	1.7	18	341	143	198	4.4	53%	45%	43%	42%	14%	.18
AFA Defense	12	30.3	27.8	49.8%	4.28	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	46%	54%	11%	.41

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	13	22.3	26.3	40%	3.12	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	40%	40%	17%	.11
AFA Offense	12	29.8	27.5	47.3%	4.6	1	22	407	262	145	4.8	77%	21%	48%	47%	9%	.29

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	13	27:43	18.1	39%	67%	5.3	44.6	1.7	1.2	5.6	2.5	2	28.4
Air Force	12	33:52	22	51%	71%	3.6	31.3	1	0.8	3.3	1.3	0	28.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	13	53% (42)	43% (78)	32.8	143.5	4.4	22 (49)	.14 (54)	3.15 (33)	75% (47)	9% (69)	0.99 (59)
AFA Defense	12	49% (53)	46% (110)	-	-	-	-	.31 (136)	3.3 (127)	76% (102)	6% (135)	1.21 (133)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	13	47% (36)	40% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (36)	2.63 (21)	83% (128)	11% (33)	0.97 (73)
AFA Offense	12	77% (2)	48% (24)	54.4	261.5	4.8	33 (1)	.23 (18)	3.27 (18)	79% (22)	7% (9)	0.96 (69)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	13	45% (97)	42% (71)	16.3	24.8	198	8	12.1	17 (61)	9 (119)	.27 (62)	1.6 (53)	30% (51)	30% (72)	.33 (61)	5% (22)	1.9 (110)
AFA Defense	12	50% (85)	54% (136)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.51 (135)	1.5 (31)	28% (128)	40% (136)	.73 (136)	4% (127)	2.3 (128)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	13	52% (106)	40% (59)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.24 (63)	1.5 (41)	34% (33)	28% (45)	.27 (60)	6% (54)	1.9 (39)
AFA Offense	12	21% (135)	47% (21)	8.1	13.7	145.2	10.6	18	13 (75)	7 (34)	.55 (3)	2.1 (2)	24% (4)	33% (39)	.39 (39)	2% (3)	2 (63)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.08 #88
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 4.25 #98
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 9.33 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #66
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #69
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.08 Air Force: -3.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 1.2 Air Force: -3.5

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -3.53 #101
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.77 #59
Air Force's Defense Rating: 19.33 #129
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #86
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #63
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 27
Air Force 26

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
New Mexico 28
Air Force 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
New Mexico 28
Air Force 26

Total Points: 54

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Air Force	3	New Mexico	20	New Mexico -3.5	New Mexico	53.5	Under
2024	10/12	New Mexico	52	Air Force	37	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	56.0	Over
2022	11/12	Air Force	35	New Mexico	3	Air Force -21	Air Force	37.5	Over
2021	10/02	New Mexico	10	Air Force	38	Air Force -11.5	Air Force	46.0	Over
2020	11/20	Air Force	28	New Mexico	0	Air Force -9.5	Air Force	56.5	Under
2019	11/23	New Mexico	22	Air Force	44	Air Force -24	New Mexico	56.5	Over
2018	11/10	Air Force	42	New Mexico	24	Air Force -14	Air Force	55.0	Over
2017	09/30	New Mexico	56	Air Force	38	Air Force -3	New Mexico	50.5	Over
2016	10/15	Air Force	40	New Mexico	45	Air Force -15	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2015	11/28	New Mexico	47	Air Force	35	Air Force -10.5	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2014	10/18	Air Force	35	New Mexico	31	Air Force -12	New Mexico	0
2013	11/08	New Mexico	45	Air Force	37	New Mexico -1.5	New Mexico	0
2012	10/20	Air Force	28	New Mexico	23
2011	10/29	New Mexico	0	Air Force	42
2010	11/13	Air Force	48	New Mexico	23
2009	09/19	New Mexico	13	Air Force	37
2008	10/23	Air Force	23	New Mexico	10
2007	10/25	New Mexico	34	Air Force	31
2006	09/30	Air Force	24	New Mexico	7
2005	11/19	New Mexico	24	Air Force	42
2004	10/09	Air Force	28	New Mexico	23
2003	11/15	New Mexico	24	Air Force	12
2002	09/07	Air Force	38	New Mexico	31
2001	10/27	New Mexico	52	Air Force	33
2000	10/20	Air Force	23	New Mexico	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	15	4	8 Overs
New Mexico	10	8	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	17 - 8	8 - 4	5 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 17	4 - 8	2 - 3	2 - 5

(#88) UNM at (#101) AFA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	AFA
Power RatePwr	#88	#101
SP+SP+	#66	#86
Perf GradeGrade	#49	#54
OffenseOff	#77	#10
DefenseDef	#29	#124
Spec TeamsST	#58	#66
TalentTal	#127	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#79	#101

New Mexico Notes(9/23) DE Keyshawn James-Newby great add (Idaho)
(9/13) Run Off mauled UCLA, impressive. Tough team
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle
New Mexico Injury Report

Air Force Notes(9/29) Def may be worst in CFB, back 7 sub FCS level bad
(9/24) Def torched 2 straight weeks vs Utah St/Boise
(9/24) QB Szarka good find, Off humming, Def awful
(9/20) Off 500+ yds on Boise, impressive. Def not great
(8/30) Run Off OK vs Bucknell, expected better
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
Air Force Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
Perf GradePerf	#77	#124
SuccessSuc	#76	#134
ExplosiveExp	#56	#123
PPAPPA	#65	#136
PowerPwr	#98	#129
SP+SP+	#69	#101
Pts POPPO	#44	#123
HavocHav	#44	#133

New Mexico Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	#107	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#110
Run ExplRExp	#59	#133
PPAExp	#54	#136
Run BlockR Blk	#75	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#127
Stuff RateStuff	#12	#133
TackleTak	-	#43

New Mexico Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	UNM Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#136
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#31
PPAExp	#62	#135
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#114	#57
F7 HavocF7	#69	#135
DB HavocDB	#22	#127

Air Force on Offense

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
Perf GradePerf	#10	#29
SuccessSuc	#20	#51
ExplosiveExp	#89	#58
PPAPPA	#18	#48
PowerPwr	#59	#76
SP+SP+	#63	#66
Pts POPPO	#13	#25
HavocHav	#2	#40

Air Force Run Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#64	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	#24	#49
Run ExplRExp	#69	#73
PPAExp	#18	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#18	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#2	#17
TackleTak	-	#41

Air Force Pass Game

Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat	AFA Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#60
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#59
Pass ExplPExl	#2	#41
PPAExp	#3	#63
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#11
F7 HavocF7	#9	#33
DB HavocDB	#3	#54

Program Comparison
AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 46° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 13
New Mexico 3.5 (53.5)
New Mexico won at Air Force this year (20-3)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Air Force last year (52-37)
Air Force beat New Mexico in 2022 (35-3)

UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Layne (Tr)	199	302	66%	2398	13	9	7.9
James Laubstein	10	14	71%	96	2	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damon Bankston (Tr)	104	578	5	5.6	54
DJ McKinney (Tr)	109	454	7	4.2	54
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)	77	349	5	4.5	61
James Laubstein	44	306	1	7.0	58

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keagan Johnson (Tr)	55	712	3	12.9	80
Dorian Thomas (Tr)	53	545	4	10.3	34
Damon Bankston (Tr)	26	374	3	14.4	84
Cade Keith (Tr)	20	253	3	12.7	45

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)	126	7	2	3	2
Tavian Combs	68	1	1	0	3
Jon Johnson	50	0	0	0	5
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5
Brett Karhu	26	11	7	5	1
Darren Agu (Tr)	29	4	2	2	1
Gabriel Lopez	14	6	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Drew Speech	9	0	0	0	7
Jon Johnson	50	0	0	0	5
Keyshawn James-Newby (Tr)	48	13	8	5	5

AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Liam Szarka	75	120	63%	1294	9	5	10.8
Josh Johnson	16	28	57%	374	4	2	13.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Liam Szarka	190	922	13	4.9	64
Owen Allen	131	749	5	5.7	43
Dylan Carson	91	419	4	4.6	64
Cade Harris	61	321	4	5.3	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	35	584	2	16.7	74
Bruin Fleischmann	21	370	6	17.6	68
Quin Smith	15	358	4	23.9	52
Jonah Dawson	12	260	1	21.7	53

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blake Fletcher	108	1	0	5	2
Roger Jones Jr.	76	1	0	1	0
Dallas Daley	45	1	0	1	3
Peyton Zdroik	36	6	1	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Hubert	30	11	5	7	1
Jackson Adams	17	4	3	3	2
Grady Forsythe	2	2	2	0	0
Jaylin Reese	10	1	1	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Korey Johnson	34	0	0	4
Dallas Daley	45	1	1	3
Blake Fletcher	108	1	5	2