New Mexico at Air Force - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo New Mexico Lobos at Air Force FalconsAir Force logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Falcon Stadium - Colorado Springs, CO  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (26 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
AFA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -4.5   (SP+ AFA -4)

Projected Score: UNM: 27 - AFA: 31 (58)
AFA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 289 miles
Falcons (1 - 1) (1 - 1 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (135 - 89)
Avg Score : 40 - 31 (49 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.2 - 7.8 (#112)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)
 
New Mexico's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico at Michigan+36.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 9/6 New Mexico vs Idaho State-17.560.0W 32 - 22UN
Fri 9/12 New Mexico at UCLA+15.552.5W 35 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico vs New Mexico State-2
Sat 10/4 New Mexico at San José State+8
Sat 10/11 New Mexico at Boise State+22
Sat 10/18 New Mexico vs Nevada-4.5
Sat 10/25 New Mexico vs Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico at UNLV+16
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 New Mexico vs Colorado State+5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico at Air Force+4.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico vs San Diego State+7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Air Force's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Air Force vs Bucknell-31.054.5W 49 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Air Force at Utah State-4.051.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 Air Force vs Boise State+10.051.5
Sat 9/27 Air Force vs Hawai'i+1.5
Sat 10/4 Air Force at Navy+16.5
Sat 10/11 Air Force at UNLV+13.5
Sat 10/18 Air Force vs Wyoming+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Air Force vs Army+3.5
Sat 11/8 Air Force at San José State+6
Sat 11/15 Air Force at UConn+18.5
Sat 11/22 Air Force vs New Mexico-4.5
Sat 11/29 Air Force at Colorado State+8

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 5, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#118 (.07)38% (108)2836% (114)2.89 (79)18941% (90)1753.73 (83)#71 (.14)43% (98)2248% (111)41% (72)2.77 (43)15.721
AFA#30 (.34)53% (21)39.557% (13)3.48 (27)26741% (83)1696.08 (4)#124 (.33)47% (116)3140% (76)54% (130)5.33 (128)45.51.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#14 (.31)49% (10)53% (3)3.81 (1)25444% (40)2313.83 (79)#132 (.34)50% (132)50% (125)51% (131)4.64 (128)81.51.60.8
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense3282637.8%3.732213631891755.147%51%36%41%14%.07
AFA Defense2311346.9%5.331 - - - - - 52%48%40%54%14%.33
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense3222243.4%2.771 - - - - - 47%51%48%41%9%.14
AFA Offense239.54952.8%6.081.5234362671694.872%28%57%41%9%.34

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico333:032141%50%2.315.7212.70.7031.7
Air Force234:542352%100%4.545.51.515.54.5026.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense347% (87)36% (114)37.3188.75.17 (38).14 (69)2.89 (79)70% (79)9% (73)0.99 (59)
AFA Defense252% (92)40% (76) - - - - .3 (127)3.29 (123)60% (34)10% (65)1.32 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense347% (51)48% (111) - - - - .1 (84)2.9 (82)94% (126)6% (121)0.73 (20)
AFA Offense272% (5)57% (13)56266.54.88 (26).35 (22)3.48 (27)77% (45)5% (10)0.9 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense351% (56)41% (90)1928.7174.76.19.24 (72)3 (92).11 (114)1.2 (124)31% (70)25% (107).19 (104)5% (68)1.8 (102)
AFA Defense248% (49)54% (130) - - - - - - 1 (87).38 (112)1.5 (57)29% (107)50% (134).89 (134)3% (116)2.1 (83)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense351% (77)41% (72) - - - - - - 2 (56).35 (108)1.5 (56)32% (80)27% (57).53 (116)3% (131)2.6 (127)
AFA Offense228% (132)41% (83)8.51616910.619.92 (102)2 (60).31 (65)1.7 (33)26% (30)22% (118)-.04 (128)4% (35)1.1 (133)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -16.34 #121
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
2025 Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
New Mexico's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
New Mexico's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.34   Air Force: -10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -13.0   Air Force: -9.2




Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -10.105 #119
Air Force's Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
2025 Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Air Force's 2025 Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8
Air Force's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 533.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 28 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

New Mexico's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 31
New Mexico 27


Total Points: 58

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 39.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 49
Defense: 31 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Air Force's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12New Mexico52Air Force37New MexicoNew Mexico -7New Mexico56.0Over
202211/12Air Force35New Mexico3Air ForceAir Force -21Air Force37.5Over
202110/02New Mexico10Air Force38Air ForceAir Force -11.5Air Force46.0Over
202011/20Air Force28New Mexico0Air ForceAir Force -9.5Air Force56.5Under
201911/23New Mexico22Air Force44Air ForceAir Force -24New Mexico56.5Over
201811/10Air Force42New Mexico24Air ForceAir Force -14Air Force55.0Over
201709/30New Mexico56Air Force38New MexicoAir Force -3New Mexico50.5Over
201610/15Air Force40New Mexico45New MexicoAir Force -15New Mexico53.5Over
201511/28New Mexico47Air Force35New MexicoAir Force -10.5New Mexico53.5Over
201410/18Air Force35New Mexico31Air ForceAir Force -12New Mexico0
201311/08New Mexico45Air Force37New MexicoNew Mexico -1.5New Mexico0
201210/20Air Force28New Mexico23Air Force
201110/29New Mexico0Air Force42Air Force
201011/13Air Force48New Mexico23Air Force
200909/19New Mexico13Air Force37Air Force
200810/23Air Force23New Mexico10Air Force
200710/25New Mexico34Air Force31New Mexico
200609/30Air Force24New Mexico7Air Force
200511/19New Mexico24Air Force42Air Force
200410/09Air Force28New Mexico23Air Force
200311/15New Mexico24Air Force12New Mexico
200209/07Air Force38New Mexico31Air Force
200110/27New Mexico52Air Force33New Mexico
200010/20Air Force23New Mexico29New Mexico
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Air Force1548 Overs
New Mexico971 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams17 - 78 - 35 - 23 - 1
Road Teams7 - 173 - 81 - 32 - 5

(#121) New Mexico Info
Power Rating: -16.34 #121
Offense Rating: 3.17 #112
Defense Rating: 19.51 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.0 #116
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.2 #83
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #128
Talent Rating: 394.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #79
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.73 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Poor Pass Success 41%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 43%
Good in Scoring Position 2.77 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Bad Pass Def Success 41%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

New Mexico has lost 7 straight
New Mexico has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 1 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico Notes
(9/13) HC Jason Eck incredible job, P4 bound soon
(8/1) Slow paced, run heavy 2/1 run ratio Offense
(8/1) Off will struggle bad, won't mask an awful Def
(8/1) Year 0, this roster is awful & FCS heavy
(5/27) RB 4 portals, look good w/ Humphrey (Mon St)
(5/27) WR rebuild, look rough, 1 portal, 5 TE's
(5/27) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 8 portal adds, 7 FCS
(5/27) Def rebuild. 18 portals, 7 CB & 6 Safeties
(5/27) Roster rebuild, nice FCS adds esp RB & DB
(5/19) QB Welliver, Faavae, Layne? Fall battle

New Mexico Highlights
New Mexico does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#24)

New Mexico defense does not give up big plays (#30)
New Mexico commits very few Penalties (#1)

New Mexico Deficiencies
New Mexico has a bad TO Margin (#116)
New Mexico Fumbles a Lot (#113)
New Mexico offense is really bad (#108)
New Mexico offense is not Explosive (#111)
New Mexico run game is really bad (#114)
New Mexico does not Sack the QB (#122)
New Mexico Does Not Stuff Runs (#100)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatAFAUNM
OverallOver#60#50
OffenseOff#21#75
DefenseDef#88#34
Special TeamsST#74#24
PassingPass#66#41
RushingRush#44#50
Run BlockRBLK#6#60
Pass BlockPBLK#61#94
Route RunningWR Rt#82#93
TacklingTkl#85#51
Run DefenseR Def#60#33
Pass Rush DefPRush#74#23
Coverage DefCov#107#60

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat Air Force last year (52-37)
Air Force beat New Mexico in 2022 (35-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | AFA
Depth Chart: UNM | AFA
Rosters: UNM | AFA
(#119) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -10.105 #119
Offense Rating: 11.17 #77
Defense Rating: 27.18 #133
Overall SP+ Rating: -9.2 #96
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #112
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 222.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #101
Expected Record: 4.2 - 7.8

Team Profile
Option Offense 72%, Pass: 28%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.08 PPO
Great Run Success 57%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 47%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 40%
Awful Pass Def Success 54%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Air Force has lost 9 straight
Air Force has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Air Force Notes
(8/1) OL 3 of 5 back, 3 more w/ exp. Improved late LY
(8/1) DC Knorr a good one, had no help LY from Off
(8/1) Trust Calhoun & staff, will contend for bowl.
(7/27) Def improved LY but replacing a lot. CB is big ?
(7/27) DL solid, P Zdroik is a top rated DT
(5/6) Fr QB Haynes left via portal, started 6 gms LY
(5/6) QB Johnson (1 start LY) vs Liam Szarka in spring
(5/6) Started 0-7, finished 4-0 in 2024
(5/5) RB Carson/Allen back, FB Frew back. Avg
(5/5) WR top 2 back in Harris/Smith. Decent

Air Force Highlights
Air Force is Undefeated at Home
Air Force is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Air Force offense is efficent (#21)
Air Force has a top Offensive Line (#27)
Air Force offense is good in red zone (#4)
Air Force offense is good on 3rd downs
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)

Air Force Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)

Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force has a bad defense (#116)
Air Force gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#109)
Air Force Does Not Stuff Runs (#117)
Air Force has a bad defensive line (#123)
Air Force has a bad red zone defense (#128)


  
New Mexico's OC Luke Schleusner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne (Tr)568467%515336.1
DJ McKinney (Tr)11100%9109.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey (Tr)3422236.561
Damon Bankston (Tr)2520028.054
DJ McKinney (Tr)3013914.617
James Laubstein5501.04
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dorian Thomas (Tr)1816829.325
Damon Bankston (Tr)8125115.655
Michael Buckley453013.325
Keagan Johnson (Tr)84605.814

View New Mexico's Full Roster
New Mexico's DC Spence Nowinsky
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Tavian Combs160000
Caleb Coleman (Tr)150000
David Scott-Murphy122000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brett Karhu72110
Xavier Slayton (Tr)101100
Gabriel Lopez21110
Landon Williams10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech40002
Jaxton Eck (Tr)340011
Jon Johnson70001

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Johnson91656%2242114.0
Liam Szarka81650%114017.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris1613828.649
Dylan Carson1910515.517
Christopher Frew660010.014
Owen Allen175613.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris5146129.262
Quin Smith385128.340
James Roberson480020.029
Bruin Fleischmann31906.37

View Air Force's Full Roster
Air Force's DC Brian Knorr
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher220020
Roger Jones Jr.120000
Luke Fisher90010
Nick Beckwith90001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert64310
Jackson Adams52200
Grady Forsythe22200
Lukia Rawls Jr.52100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Beckwith90001
Houston Hendrix60001
Korey Johnson50001