Mississippi State at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels(#7)

Friday, November 29th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Ole Miss -26.5 (63.5) (-4000) Open: -27.0 | 62.5
Ole Miss 26 - Mississippi State: 14 (SEC)

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Ole Miss -36 (SP+ MISS -32)
Projected Score: MSST: 11 - MISS: 47 (57)
MISS Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
MSST Travel: 76 miles

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (40 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)	38.6	44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)	14.4	35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
MISS Defense	13	14.4	10.6	35.3%	2.98	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	35%	36%	25%	.04

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
MISS Offense	13	38.6	39.6	47.4%	4	0.9	23	481	164	317	4.6	50%	50%	44%	51%	15%	.34

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Ole Miss	13	26:04	22.7	41%	59%	6.8	68.5	0.9	1.6	8.9	4.1	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
MISS Defense	13	47% (25)	35% (6)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (4)	2.49 (7)	74% (71)	16% (1)	0.88 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)
MISS Offense	13	50% (75)	44% (76)	35.8	164.2	4.6	27 (30)	.15 (58)	3.02 (72)	71% (85)	10% (68)	1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
MISS Defense	13	53% (115)	36% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.12 (20)	1.6 (85)	37% (5)	23% (1)	.1 (3)	8% (3)	2.1 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
MISS Offense	13	50% (59)	51% (3)	20.5	30.5	317.2	10.4	15.4	27 (20)	6 (10)	.53 (3)	1.6 (46)	29% (28)	38% (7)	.63 (2)	5% (54)	2.3 (12)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34 Ole Miss: 28.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1 Ole Miss: 27.9

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 28.83 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 33 #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 47
Mississippi State 11

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 33
Mississippi State 18

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 36
Mississippi State 17

Total Points: 53

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Mississippi State	19	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -7.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Under
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	14	5	1 Overs
Mississippi State	11	7	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#101) MSST at (#4) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#4
SP+SP+	#88	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#6
OffenseOff	#108	#15
DefenseDef	#135	#3
Spec TeamsST	#56	#81
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#19

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#3
SuccessSuc	#109	#3
ExplosiveExp	#6	#78
PPAPPA	#78	#6
PowerPwr	#100	#4
SP+SP+	#82	#3
Pts POPPO	#86	#8
HavocHav	#127	#1

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#106	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#6
Run ExplRExp	#28	#23
PPAExp	#92	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#7
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#19
TackleTak	-	#1

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#13
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#85
PPAExp	#76	#20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#4
F7 HavocF7	#122	#1
DB HavocDB	#116	#3

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#135
SuccessSuc	#19	#133
ExplosiveExp	#8	#18
PPAPPA	#4	#130
PowerPwr	#8	#130
SP+SP+	#7	#98
Pts POPPO	#58	#113
HavocHav	#54	#134

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#55	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#76	#108
Run ExplRExp	#26	#13
PPAExp	#58	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#72	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#92	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#46	#48
PPAExp	#3	#134
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#136
F7 HavocF7	#68	#133
DB HavocDB	#54	#123

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 44° - Wind: 12 mph

Rematch from Week 14
Ole Miss -26.5 (63.5)
Ole Miss won vs Mississippi State this year (26-14)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Barnes (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7