Oklahoma at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS (SEC)

Sooners (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brent Venables (32 - 20)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (31 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 3.3 (#18)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Our Line: Oklahoma -15.5 (SP+ OKLA -14)
Projected Score: OKLA: 34 - MSST: 19 (53)
OKLA Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
OKLA Travel: 508 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
OKLA Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Oklahoma vs UTEP	-39.5
Sat 9/12	Oklahoma at Michigan	-0.5
Sat 9/19	Oklahoma vs New Mexico	-24.5
Sat 9/26	Oklahoma at Georgia	+7
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Oklahoma vs Texas	-2.5
Sat 10/17	Oklahoma vs Kentucky	-21
Sat 10/24	Oklahoma at Mississippi State	-15.5
Sat 10/31	Oklahoma vs South Carolina	-16
Sat 11/7	Oklahoma at Florida	-10.5
Sat 11/14	Oklahoma vs Ole Miss	-2.5
Sat 11/21	Oklahoma vs Texas A&M	-1
Sat 11/28	Oklahoma at Missouri	-1

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-25
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+7
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+12
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+17
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+15.5
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+20.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+9.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+8.5
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-28
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+20.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA	#108 (.1)	40% (103)	26.2	38% (115)	2.71 (111)	119	41% (71)	236	3.77 (62)	#5 ()	32% (3)	15.5	30% (2)	34% (9)	2.62 (7)	61.2	1.2	1
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Offense	13	26.2	31	39.7%	3.77	1.2	19	355	119	236	3.6	45%	53%	38%	41%	17%	.1
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Defense	13	15.5	14.5	32.1%	2.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	30%	34%	23%
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma	13	29:44	18.5	39%	57%	6.8	61.2	1.2	1	9.5	3.5	1	31.2
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Offense	13	45% (103)	38% (115)	33.3	118.7	3.6	18 (60)	(124)	2.71 (111)	64% (113)	10% (79)	0.92 (86)
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Defense	13	44% (14)	30% (2)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (6)	2.03 (2)	65% (25)	16% (1)	1.08 (121)
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Offense	13	53% (33)	41% (71)	20.4	33.2	235.8	7.1	11.6	17 (75)	11 (88)	.2 (95)	1.5 (86)	33% (104)	28% (93)	.25 (92)	7% (105)	2.2 (12)
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Defense	13	54% (125)	34% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.09 (10)	1.5 (48)	37% (7)	26% (20)	.22 (35)	6% (47)	2 (65)
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 26.30 #11
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 21.13 #18
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: -0.20 #4
2026 Talent Rating: 996.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 42% #13
Oklahoma's 2026 Expected Record: 8.7 - 3.3
Oklahoma's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.3 #14
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #51
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.9 #4

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 26.30 Mississippi State: 6.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 18.3 Mississippi State: 4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 6.835 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.28 #40
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.71 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 904.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 13 #30
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.5

Oklahoma's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oklahoma 34
Mississippi State 19

Projected Total Points: 53

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	0	0	0 Overs
Oklahoma	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#11) OKLA at (#59) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKLA	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#11	#59
SP+SP+	#14	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#15	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#30

Oklahoma Notes(2/17) Vibes: Cautious, CFP run saved BV, must fix Off
(2/2) DBs coach Jay Valai left for NFL (big loss)
(1/29) Lost 25 portals that went to P4 schools
(1/29) QB Mateer is fun but limited passer. Gamer
(1/29) OC Arbuckle/QB Mateer 3rd yr together
(1/29) RBs awful LY, only 1 portal, a PT Col St add?
(1/29) WR loaded with Sategna + 2 big portal adds
(1/29) OL bad LY, 4 starters back + 3 portal starters
(1/29) DL still looks really good, DT big 3 man rotation
(1/29) DBs best in CFB? CB duo Guillory/Bowen great
Oklahoma Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneven, hopeful on Off but 1-15 in SEC
(3/5) Rumor is OT Brandon Sneh is ineligible? Big loss
(2/2) DC Arnett back (HC in '23). Good DC hire
(2/2) QB Taylor is electric, pot star. Swann has exp
(2/2) RB looks avg. Fluff decent, not sure what else
(2/2) WR has Evans and some good parts. Decent unit
(2/2) OL lost 8, added 8 via portal (2 starters). Huge ?
(2/2) DL was awful LY, added some but not enough
(2/2) LBs have exp but none played well. Don't see it
(2/2) DBs return 2 good starters, added 2. Best Def unit
Mississippi State Injury Report

Oklahoma on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#103	#102
ExplosiveExp	#64	#71
PPAPPA	#108	#110
PowerPwr	#18	#74
SP+SP+	#51	#84
Pts POPPO	#62	#69
HavocHav	#94	#110

Oklahoma Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#115	#124
Run ExplRExp	#86	#31
PPAExp	#124	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#118	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Oklahoma Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#71	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#86	#124
PPAExp	#95	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#79	#121
DB HavocDB	#105	#69

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	OKLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#3
ExplosiveExp	#45	#109
PPAPPA	#90	#5
PowerPwr	#40	#4
SP+SP+	#39	#4
Pts POPPO	#22	#7
HavocHav	#117	#3

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	OKLA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#2
Run ExplRExp	#68	#121
PPAExp	#71	#6
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#2
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#2
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	OKLA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#48
PPAExp	#93	#10
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#1
DB HavocDB	#81	#47

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

OKLA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

OKLA's OC Ben Arbuckle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
John Mateer	247	397	62%	2885	14	11	7.3
Whitt Newbauer	2	4	50%	6	0	0	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Blaylock	120	482	4	4.0	25
John Mateer	149	431	8	2.9	51
Xavier Robinson	83	421	4	5.1	65
Lloyd Avant (Tr)	90	417	5	4.6	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Sategna	65	949	8	14.6	87
Trell Harris (Tr)	59	847	5	14.4	75
Parker Livingstone (Tr)	29	516	6	17.8	83
Rocky Beers (Tr)	31	388	7	12.5	48

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Todd Bates (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4
Bishop Thomas (Tr)	48	4	2	5	1
Peyton Bowen	46	1	0	1	7
Cole Sullivan (Tr)	44	5	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Wein	39	15	7	6	1
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4
Kenny Ozowalu (Tr)	16	6	3	3	1
Jayden Jackson	28	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Peyton Bowen	46	1	0	1	7
Courtland Guillory	41	1	0	1	7
Kip Lewis	76	11	4	4	4

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Derion Gullette	38	2	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5