Auburn at Mississippi State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Auburn Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 5th 2022 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -12.5 (50.5)
Mississippi State 39 - Auburn: 33 (SEC)

Tigers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Bryan Harsin (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: -7.5 (SP+ MSST -10)
Projected Score: AUB: 28 - MSST: 28 (56)
MSST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
AUB Travel: 200 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Mike Leach (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Auburn vs Mercer	-30.0	51.5	W 42 - 16	O	N
Sat 9/10	Auburn vs San José State	-24.0	48.5	W 24 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/17	Auburn vs Penn State	+2.5	47.5	L 12 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/24	Auburn vs Missouri	-7.5	51.0	W 17 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/1	Auburn vs LSU	+8.0	44.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Auburn at Georgia	+27.5	49.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/15	Auburn at Ole Miss	+15.5	55.5	L 34 - 48	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Auburn vs Arkansas	+4.0	60.0	L 27 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/5	Auburn at Mississippi State	+12.5	50.5	L 33 - 39	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Auburn vs Texas A&M	-1.5	48.0	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Auburn vs Western Kentucky	-5.0	54.0	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Auburn at Alabama	+22.0	51.0	L 27 - 49	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	.18	43%	26.8	45%	3.09	161	41%	240	3.85	.11	42%	20.7	39%	44%	3.52	46	0.9	1
MSST	.24	50%	30.4	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	30.2	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	13	26.8	27.2	42.9%	3.85	0.9	21	401	161	240	4.7	46%	54%	45%	41%	14%	.18
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	13	20.7	26.6	41.7%	3.52	1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	39%	44%	18%	.11
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	13	27:52	20.8	40%	57%	5.6	46	0.9	1	7.5	2.8	3	27.7
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	13	46%	45%	34.1	161.2	4.7	22	.18	3.09	70%	9%	1.02
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	13	46%	39%	-	-	-	-	.03	2.65	55%	12%	0.92
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	13	54%	41%	20.5	35	240.1	6.9	11.7	17	4	.19	1.5	33%	32%	.3	5%	1.9
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	13	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.23	1.4	32%	33%	.32	6%	1.9
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: NR
Auburn's Offense Rating: NR
Auburn's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Auburn's 2022 Expected Record: -
Auburn's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #54
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #46
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: Mississippi State: 10.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 5.1 Mississippi State: 15.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.2 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 28
Mississippi State 28

Projected Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Auburn	27	Mississippi State	13	Auburn -6.5	Auburn	40.0	Push
2022	11/05	Mississippi State	39	Auburn	33	Mississippi State -12.5	Auburn	50.5	Over
2021	11/13	Auburn	34	Mississippi State	43	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2020	12/12	Mississippi State	10	Auburn	24	Auburn -5.5	Auburn	50.5	Under
2019	09/28	Auburn	56	Mississippi State	23	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	47.0	Over
2018	10/06	Mississippi State	23	Auburn	9	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	45.0	Under
2017	09/30	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	10	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Auburn	55.0	Under
2015	09/26	Auburn	9	Mississippi State	17	Auburn -3.5	Mississippi State	58.5	Under
2014	10/11	Mississippi State	38	Auburn	23	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	0
2013	09/14	Auburn	24	Mississippi State	20	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	0
2012	09/08	Mississippi State	28	Auburn	10
2011	09/10	Auburn	41	Mississippi State	34
2010	09/09	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	17
2009	09/12	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	24
2008	09/13	Mississippi State	2	Auburn	3
2007	09/15	Auburn	14	Mississippi State	19
2006	09/09	Mississippi State	0	Auburn	34
2005	09/10	Auburn	28	Mississippi State	0
2004	09/11	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	43
2003	10/18	Auburn	45	Mississippi State	13
2002	09/19	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	42
2001	10/06	Auburn	16	Mississippi State	14
2000	10/06	Mississippi State	17	Auburn	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	8	5	4 Overs
Auburn	16	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 5	1 - 2	5 - 3

(#) AUB at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#106	#73
OffenseOff	#109	#78
DefenseDef	#58	#66
Spec TeamsST	#133	#1
TalentTal	#17	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Auburn Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#66
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#46	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#42	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#127	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#62	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#58
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#48	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#46

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#24
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

AUB 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Mississippi State -12.5 (50.5)
Mississippi State won vs Auburn this year (39-33)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

AUB's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Jeff Schmedding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD