Alcorn State at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Alcorn State Braves at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5) (0) Open: -38.5
Mississippi State 63 - Alcorn State: 0

Braves (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 63 (0 - 63 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Mississippi State -17 (SP+ MSST -9)
MSST Win prob: 100% | Cover: 56%

Bulldogs (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (44 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 8) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
ALCN Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alcorn State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Alcorn State at Mississippi State	+42.5	56.5	L 0 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alcorn State's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-11.5	59.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+6.0	58.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-42.5	56.5	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-21.5	49.5
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+5.5
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+11
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+5.5
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+7
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+9.5
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+12
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+6

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%	0	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	63	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#26 (.36)	50% (33)	40.3	56% (18)	3.14 (53)	179	44% (62)	263	4.94 (33)	#32 (.02)	38% (57)	12.3	43% (87)	32% (29)	3.4 (65)	84.7	0.7	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Offense	1	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Defense	3	12.3	10	37.7%	3.4	2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	43%	32%	18%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Defense	1	63	63	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Offense	3	40.3	43.5	49.7%	4.94	0.7	21	441	179	263	5	50%	50%	56%	44%	15%	.36

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alcorn State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Mississippi State	3	23:05	21	55%	50%	10	84.7	0.7	2	5	1.3	0	34.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Defense	3	58% (119)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-.02 (41)	3.03 (93)	58% (32)	9% (79)	0.75 (25)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Offense	3	50% (74)	56% (18)	36	178.7	5	9 (17)	.26 (36)	3.14 (53)	57% (114)	7% (32)	0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Defense	3	42% (18)	32% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (12)	.09 (34)	1.5 (63)	32% (84)	21% (30)	.07 (27)	9% (16)	2 (66)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Offense	3	50% (64)	44% (62)	19.7	29.3	262.7	9	13.4	7 (23)	2 (60)	.46 (33)	1.8 (13)	29% (59)	38% (33)	.72 (16)	8% (120)	2.7 (4)

Alcorn State's Power Ratings
Alcorn State's Power Rating: #NR
Alcorn State's Offense Rating: #NR
Alcorn State's Defense Rating: #NR
2025 Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Alcorn State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Alcorn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Alcorn State's Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Alcorn State's Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Mississippi State: 17.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Mississippi State: 8.7

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 17.145 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Alcorn State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 63 PPG
Defense on Road: 63

Alcorn State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 37
Alcorn State 20

Total Points: 58

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.5
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Mississippi State	63	Alcorn State	0	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -42.5	Mississippi State	56.5	Over
2013	09/07	Mississippi State	51	Alcorn State	7	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -42.5	Mississippi State	0
2010	10/02	Mississippi State	49	Alcorn State	16	Mississippi State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	2	1 Overs
Alcorn State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#NR) Alcorn State Info
Power Rating: #NR
Offense Rating: #NR
Defense Rating: #NR
Overall SP+ Rating: #N/A
Offense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Defense SP+ Rating: #N/A
Talent Rating: #
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #NR
Expected Record: -

Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Alcorn State Highlights

Alcorn State Deficiencies
Alcorn State has a really bad Offense
Alcorn State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	MSST	ALCN
OverallOver	#38	—
OffenseOff	#46	—
DefenseDef	#38	—
Special TeamsST	#84	—
PassingPass	#28	—
RushingRush	#13	—
Run BlockRBLK	#79	—
Pass BlockPBLK	#46	—
Route RunningWR Rt	#65	—
TacklingTkl	#39	—
Run DefenseR Def	#36	—
Pass Rush DefPRush	#75	—
Coverage DefCov	#20	—

Rematch from Week 3
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5)
Mississippi State won vs Alcorn State this year (63-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ALCN | MSST
Depth Chart: ALCN | MSST
Rosters: ALCN | MSST

(#28) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 17.145 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Mississippi State has won 2 straight
Mississippi State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated
Mississippi State is Undefeated at Home
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)

Alcorn State's OC

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylon Tolbert	53	95	56%	430	1	3	4.5
Andre Washington	2	3	67%	7	0	0	2.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacorian Sewell	33	197	1	6.0	80
Reggie Davis	29	126	2	4.3	20
Tylon Citizen	9	22	0	2.4	10
Tyler Macon	3	11	0	3.7	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyran Warren	6	76	0	12.7	26
Elijah Griffin	3	68	0	22.7	42
Jarvis Rush (Tr)	8	62	1	7.8	18
Omarion Blakes	11	58	0	5.3	21

View Alcorn State's Full Roster

Alcorn State's DC

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Ruffin	5	0	0	0	0
Tabias Hinton	5	0	0	0	0
Eric Thomas	4	0	0	0	0
Kenneth Andrews	4	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Ruffin	5	0	0	0	0
Damien Jones	2	0	0	0	0
Patrick Kince	1	0	0	0	0
Dillon Crowell	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Ruffin	5	0	0	0	0
Damien Jones	2	0	0	0	0
Patrick Kince	1	0	0	0	0

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	55	81	68%	722	6	2	8.9
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)	2	4	50%	20	0	0	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	30	170	4	5.7	25
Davon Booth	27	126	1	4.7	16
Xavier Gayten	4	50	1	12.5	25
Johnnie Daniels	9	44	0	4.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)	15	278	3	18.5	58
Anthony Evans III (Tr)	17	210	2	12.4	48
Jordan Mosley	3	94	1	31.3	75
Seydou Traore	5	77	1	15.4	55

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	PD
Isaac Smith	18	1
Nic Mitchell	18	0
Derion Gullette (Tr)	16	0
Jahron Manning (Tr)	14	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Whitson (Tr)	8	5	2	0	0
Deonte Anderson	5	1	1	0	0
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)	5	1	1	1	1
Joseph Head Jr.	3	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Kelley Jones	9	0	3
DeAgo Brumfeld	8	1	3
Isaac Smith	18	0	1