Alcorn State at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Alcorn State logo   Alcorn State Braves at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Mississippi State logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5) (0)  Open: -38.5
Mississippi State 63 - Alcorn State: 0

 
Braves (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 63 (0 - 63 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Mississippi State -10.5  (SP+ MSST -4)
MSST Win prob: 100% | Cover: 56%
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 8) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Alcorn State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13 Alcorn State at Mississippi State+42.556.5L 0 - 63ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alcorn State's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALCN0%00%000%000%630%0%0000
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALCN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALCN Offense2000%00000000%0%0%0%0%
MSST Defense1230.227.950.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALCN Defense263630%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
MSST Offense1230.433.939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alcorn State20:000NAN%0%0000000100
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALCN Offense20%0%000000%0%0
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALCN Defense20%0% - - - - 00%0%0
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALCN Offense20%0%000000000%0%0%0
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALCN Defense20%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)

Alcorn State's Power Ratings
Alcorn State's Power Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Alcorn State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Alcorn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State:    Mississippi State: 10.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State:    Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.25  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Alcorn State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 63 PPG
Defense on Road: 63

Alcorn State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 35
Alcorn State 25

Projected Total Points: 60
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Mississippi State63Alcorn State0Mississippi State -42.5Mississippi State56.5Over
201309/07Mississippi State51Alcorn State7Mississippi State -42.5Mississippi State0
201010/02Mississippi State49Alcorn State16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State321 Overs
Alcorn State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#) ALCN at (#38) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatALCNMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNR #38
SP+SP+NR #58
Perf GradeGradeNR #105
OffenseOffNR #84
DefenseDefNR #119
Spec TeamsSTNR #77
TalentTalNR #40
Blue ChipsBC%NR #27
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Alcorn State on Offense
CategoryCat
ALCN OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNR #119
SuccessSucNR #133
ExplosiveExpNR #18
PPAPPANR #130
PowerPwrNR #44
SP+SP+NR #84
Pts POPPONR #113
HavocHavNR #134
Alcorn State Run Game
CategoryCat
ALCN OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNR #113
Run SuccessRSucNR #108
Run ExplRExpNR #13
PPAExpNR #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #113
Stuff RateStuffNR #114
TackleTak -  #96
Alcorn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
ALCN OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNR #87
Pass SuccessPSucNR #134
Pass ExplPExlNR #48
PPAExpNR #134
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #132
F7 HavocF7NR #133
DB HavocDBNR #123
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffALCN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84NR
SuccessSuc #109NR
ExplosiveExp #6NR
PPAPPA #78NR
PowerPwr #24NR
SP+SP+ #39NR
Pts POPPO #86NR
HavocHav #127NR
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffALCN Def
Run GameRun #68NR
Run SuccessRSuc #105NR
Run ExplRExp #28NR
PPAExp #92NR
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93NR
Stuff RateStuff #44NR
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffALCN Def
Pass GamePass #43NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104NR
Pass ExplPExl #18NR
PPAExp #76NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78NR
F7 HavocF7 #122NR
DB HavocDB #116NR
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ALCN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5)
Mississippi State won vs Alcorn State this year (63-0)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Alcorn State last year (63-0)

  
ALCN's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylon Tolbert20732564%20941476.4
Andre Washington4944%15001.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Davis144839105.892
Jacorian Sewell13376465.799
Jaylon Tolbert7222623.131
Camren Stewart1610806.836
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tyran Warren24442418.474
Ja'Coby Matthews (Tr)31384212.471
Jarvis Rush (Tr)4236738.744
Omarion Blakes3425627.532

View Alcorn State's Full Roster

ALCN's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Ruffin50000
Tabias Hinton50000
Kenneth Andrews40000
Eric Thomas40000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Ruffin50000
Damien Jones20000
Deitron Parker10000
Jarvis Rush (Tr)10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Ruffin50000
Damien Jones20000
Deitron Parker10000

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014