Alcorn State at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Alcorn State Braves at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 13th 2025 (6:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5) (0) Open: -38.5
Mississippi State 63 - Alcorn State: 0

Braves (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 63 (0 - 63 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 91° (30% Hum)
MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Mississippi State -8.5 (SP+ MSST -4)
MSST Win prob: 100% | Cover: 56%

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 8) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
ALCN Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Alcorn State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/13	Alcorn State at Mississippi State	+42.5	56.5	L 0 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Alcorn State's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-11.5	59.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+6.0	58.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-42.5	56.5	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+7.5	63.5	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+17.5	57.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+9.5	50.5	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+8.5	48.5	L 38 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+5.5	66.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+9.5	56.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+7.5	50.5	L 27 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+7.5	62.5	L 19 - 38	U	N
Fri 1/2	Mississippi State vs Wake Forest	-2.5	53.5

Total: Elite: 8, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 8, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%	0	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	63	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#86 (.15)	42% (73)	30.5	45% (54)	2.82 (92)	161	39% (99)	237	4.49 (19)	#104 (.21)	44% (103)	29.2	48% (124)	41% (60)	3.64 (66)	61.8	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ALCN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Offense	1	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Defense	12	29.2	27.9	44.2%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	48%	41%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ALCN Defense	1	63	63	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Offense	12	30.5	33.9	41.9%	4.49	1.3	22	398	161	237	3.8	53%	46%	45%	39%	18%	.15

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Alcorn State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Mississippi State	12	28:42	21.8	44%	48%	7.3	61.8	1.3	1.4	4.5	1.7	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Defense	12	53% (105)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (99)	3.42 (135)	74% (94)	8% (120)	0.89 (32)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Offense	12	53% (40)	45% (54)	42.3	161.4	3.8	28 (16)	.12 (64)	2.82 (92)	71% (72)	12% (125)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Defense	12	45% (31)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (6)	.28 (83)	1.7 (114)	29% (104)	30% (74)	.33 (88)	6% (64)	2.2 (126)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ALCN Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Offense	12	46% (91)	39% (99)	18.9	30.3	237	7.8	12.5	19 (75)	9 (60)	.2 (95)	1.7 (16)	34% (115)	30% (70)	.35 (51)	7% (94)	2.3 (7)

Alcorn State's Power Ratings
Alcorn State's Power Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Alcorn State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Alcorn State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Alcorn State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average SWAC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Mississippi State: 8.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alcorn State: Mississippi State: 3.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.505 #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96 #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75 #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Alcorn State Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 63 PPG
Defense on Road: 63

Alcorn State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 32
Alcorn State 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 35
Alcorn State 16

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 48
Alcorn State 15

Total Points: 63

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/13	Mississippi State	63	Alcorn State	0	Mississippi State -42.5	Mississippi State	56.5	Over
2013	09/07	Mississippi State	51	Alcorn State	7	Mississippi State -42.5	Mississippi State	0
2010	10/02	Mississippi State	49	Alcorn State	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	2	1 Overs
Alcorn State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#NR) ALCN at (#48) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ALCN	MSST
Power RatePwr	NR	#48
SP+SP+	NR	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#102
OffenseOff	NR	#94
DefenseDef	NR	#105
Spec TeamsST	NR	#84
TalentTal	NR	#40
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#27

Alcorn State Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report

Alcorn State on Offense


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	#103
ExplosiveExp	NR	#60
PPAPPA	NR	#104
PowerPwr	NR	#67
SP+SP+	NR	#76
Pts POPPO	NR	#66
HavocHav	NR	#107

Alcorn State Run Game


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#124
Run ExplRExp	NR	#32
PPAExp	NR	#99
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#135
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#124
TackleTak	-	#95

Alcorn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALCN Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#60
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#114
PPAExp	NR	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	#120
DB HavocDB	NR	#64

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALCN Def
Perf GradePerf	#94	NR
SuccessSuc	#73	NR
ExplosiveExp	#43	NR
PPAPPA	#86	NR
PowerPwr	#34	NR
SP+SP+	#42	NR
Pts POPPO	#19	NR
HavocHav	#120	NR

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALCN Def
Run GameRun	#74	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	NR
Run ExplRExp	#65	NR
PPAExp	#64	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#107	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#79	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ALCN Def
Pass GamePass	#54	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#16	NR
PPAExp	#95	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	NR
DB HavocDB	#94	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ALCN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 91°

Rematch from Week 3
Mississippi State -42.5 (56.5)
Mississippi State won vs Alcorn State this year (63-0)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ALCN's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaylon Tolbert	207	325	64%	2094	14	7	6.4
Andre Washington	4	9	44%	15	0	0	1.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Davis	144	839	10	5.8	92
Jacorian Sewell	133	764	6	5.7	99
Jaylon Tolbert	72	226	2	3.1	31
Camren Stewart	16	108	0	6.8	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyran Warren	24	442	4	18.4	74
Ja'Coby Matthews (Tr)	31	384	2	12.4	71
Jarvis Rush (Tr)	42	367	3	8.7	44
Omarion Blakes	34	256	2	7.5	32

View Alcorn State's Full Roster

ALCN's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tabias Hinton	5	0	0	0	0
Elijah Ruffin	5	0	0	0	0
Brent Barnes	4	0	0	0	0
Eric Thomas	4	0	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tabias Hinton	5	0	0	0	0
Jakel Houston-Irving	2	0	0	0	0
Patrick Kince	1	0	0	0	0
Jadyn Bost	1	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tabias Hinton	5	0	0	0	0
Jakel Houston-Irving	2	0	0	0	0
Patrick Kince	1	0	0	0	0

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	195	304	64%	2436	15	8	8.0
Kamario Taylor	30	55	55%	388	4	1	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	128	639	6	5.0	43
Davon Booth	136	552	7	4.1	22
Kamario Taylor	64	395	7	6.2	39
Xavier Gayten	24	149	2	6.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)	53	948	6	17.9	58
Anthony Evans III (Tr)	63	751	4	11.9	57
Seydou Traore	34	361	5	10.6	55
Ayden Williams (Tr)	19	222	0	11.7	49

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	3	0	0	4
Nic Mitchell	72	5	3	2	0
Brylan Lanier	65	3	1	0	2
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Mitchell	72	5	3	2	0
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson (Tr)	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	25	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	30	0	0	11
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	3	0	4
DeAgo Brumfeld	33	1	1	4