Mississippi State at Louisville - 2019 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Louisville Cardinals

Monday, December 30th 2019 (4:00 PM EST)
Mississippi State -5.0 (64.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 38 - Mississippi State: 28 (FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL)

Bulldogs (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ MSST -3.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - LOU: 31 (55)
MSST Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 220 miles

Cardinals (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MSST Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Louisiana	-19.0	61.5	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-16.5	51.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Kansas State	-7.0	51.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-5.5	48.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+7.5	47.0	L 23 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Tennessee	-5.0	52.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs LSU	+17.5	62.0	L 13 - 36	U	N
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+10.5	50.0	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State at Arkansas	-7.0	59.0	W 54 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+19.0	61.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Abilene Christian	-37.0	57.0	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Thu 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-1.0	59.0	W 21 - 20	U	N
Mon 12/30	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Louisville's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/2	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+19.0	55.0	L 17 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Louisville vs Eastern Kentucky	-21.0	60.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Louisville vs Western Kentucky	-10.5	49.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Louisville at Florida State	+6.5	61.0	L 24 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Louisville vs Boston College	-3.5	61.0	W 41 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/12	Louisville at Wake Forest	+7.0	65.0	W 62 - 59	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Louisville vs Clemson	+24.0	62.0	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 10/26	Louisville vs Virginia	+4.5	51.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Louisville at Miami	+6.5	49.0	L 27 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/16	Louisville at NC State	-4.5	52.0	W 34 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Louisville vs Syracuse	-9.0	64.0	W 56 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Louisville at Kentucky	+3.5	51.0	L 13 - 45	O	N
Mon 12/30	Louisville vs Mississippi State	+5.0	64.5	W 38 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.21	46%	30.4	54%	3.51	224	33%	174	4.35	-.03	37%	30.2	38%	32%	2.27	52.8	1	1.5
LOU	.08	41%	29.9	43%	2.67	142	37%	211	2.79	.32	52%	21.2	53%	48%	4.47	66.5	2.1	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	46.1%	4.35	1	18	398	224	174	5.7	56%	42%	54%	33%	14%	.21
LOU Defense	12	21.2	18.9	52.1%	4.47	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	61%	38%	53%	48%	9%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	36.9%	2.27	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	52%	38%	32%	20%	-.03
LOU Offense	12	29.9	33.8	40.8%	2.79	2.1	17	353	142	211	4.2	47%	52%	43%	37%	19%	.08

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	28:40	17.9	41%	38%	5.6	52.8	1	1.5	7.4	2.7	0	27.8
Louisville	12	27:16	17.1	37%	36%	7.6	66.5	2.1	1.1	3.4	0.9	2	27.5

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	56%	54%	39.5	223.5	5.7	26	.29	3.51	69%	8%	0.96
LOU Defense	12	61%	53%	-	-	-	-	.26	3.3	88%	6%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	45%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.08	2.5	78%	13%	0.8
LOU Offense	12	47%	43%	33.6	141.5	4.2	18	.05	2.67	61%	14%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	42%	33%	12.7	24.8	174.2	7	13.7	22	10	.12	1.8	30%	34%	.28	6%	1.8
LOU Defense	12	38%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.6	27%	37%	.44	3%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	52%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.02	1.5	36%	27%	.06	7%	1.6
LOU Offense	12	52%	37%	17.5	32.8	211.1	6.5	12.1	10	15	.11	1.4	36%	28%	.18	6%	1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #50
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #36
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Louisville: 0.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 3.5 Louisville: 0.2

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 0.1 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2019 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.2 #61
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #29
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #98

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2019 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 31
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2019 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2019	12/30	Louisville	38	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State -5.0	Louisville	64.5	Over
2017	12/30	Mississippi State	31	Louisville	27	Louisville -6.5	Mississippi State	62.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	1	1	1 Overs
Mississippi State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2019	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38
2018	Outback Bowl	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27
2017	N/A	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27
2016	Petersburg Bowl	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16
2015	N/A	Mississippi State vs NC State	-7.0		W 51 - 28
2014	N/A	Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech	-5.5	59.5	L 34 - 49
2013	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Rice	-7.0	50.5	W 44 - 7

Louisville Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2019	City Bowl	Louisville vs Mississippi State	+5.0	64.5	W 38 - 28
2017	N/A	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31
2016	N/A	Louisville vs LSU	+3.0	59.0	L 9 - 29
2015	N/A	Louisville vs Texas A&M	+2.5		W 27 - 21
2014	Belk Bowl	Louisville vs Georgia	+7.0	54.0	L 14 - 37
2013	Athletic Bowl	Louisville vs Miami	-5.5	60.0	W 36 - 9

(#) MSST at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#50	#61
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#21	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#36	#98
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#29	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nissan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State 5.0 (64.5)
Louisville won vs Mississippi State this year (38-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD