Texas A&M at Mississippi State - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#4)Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -21 (55.5) (-1200) Open: -15.0
Texas A&M 34 - Mississippi State: 24 (SEC)

Aggies (8 - 5) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 22 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TA&M coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas A&M -19 (SP+ TA&M -21)
Projected Score: TA&M: 38 - MSST: 19 (57)
TA&M Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
TA&M Travel: 484 miles

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TA&M Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas A&M vs Notre Dame	-3.0	47.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/7	Texas A&M vs McNeese	-48.5	56.5	W 52 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/14	Texas A&M at Florida	-4.5	47.0	W 33 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas A&M vs Bowling Green	-21.0	50.5	W 26 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/28	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	-6.5	50.5	W 21 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	Texas A&M vs Missouri	-3.0	47.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Texas A&M at Mississippi State	-21.0	55.5	W 34 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/26	Texas A&M vs LSU	-2.0	54.5	W 38 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Texas A&M at South Carolina	-3.0	43.5	L 20 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Texas A&M vs New Mexico State	-38.5	54.5	W 38 - 3	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas A&M at Auburn	-2.5	47.0	L 41 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/30	Texas A&M vs Texas	+4.5	49.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Fri 12/27	Texas A&M vs USC	-3.5	56.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TA&M	#54 (.21)	45% (41)	30.4	46% (38)	3.29 (27)	185	43% (58)	188	3.63 (93)	#67 (.16)	38% (23)	22.2	40% (38)	37% (22)	3.03 (9)	60.7	1	1.3
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TA&M	#54 (.21)	45% (41)		46% (38)	3.29 (27)	185	43% (58)	188	3.63 (93)	#67 (.16)	38% (23)		40% (38)	37% (22)	3.03 (9)	60.7	1	1.3
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TA&M Offense	13	30.4	32	44.8%	3.63	1	20	372	185	188	4.9	57%	43%	46%	43%	12%	.21
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TA&M Defense	13	22.2	32.8	38.1%	3.03	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	40%	37%	20%	.16
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Texas A&M	13	29:13	19.6	45%	41%	6.9	60.7	1	1.3	6.6	1.8	2	38.6
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TA&M Offense	13	57% (21)	46% (38)	37.8	184.5	4.9	26 (36)	.19 (37)	3.29 (27)	73% (68)	7% (12)	0.97 (66)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TA&M Defense	13	47% (35)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.1 (60)	2.55 (10)	77% (89)	11% (46)	1.11 (117)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TA&M Offense	13	43% (112)	43% (58)	14.6	24.5	187.8	7.7	12.9	16 (87)	9 (48)	.25 (70)	1.6 (72)	30% (48)	34% (43)	.35 (61)	5% (28)	1.9 (112)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TA&M Defense	13	53% (105)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.22 (62)	1.8 (131)	36% (11)	30% (69)	.37 (94)	8% (2)	2.3 (131)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 12.04 #24
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 18.38 #83
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 6.01 #35
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 59% #5
Texas A&M's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas A&M's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.0 #13
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #21
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #19

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 12.04 Mississippi State: -4.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas A&M: 17.0 Mississippi State: -4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 32
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas A&M's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 38
Mississippi State 19

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas A&M 37
Mississippi State 20

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Texas A&M 33
Mississippi State 28

Total Points: 61

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Texas A&M	31	Mississippi State	9	Texas A&M -17.5	Texas A&M	57.5	Under
2024	10/19	Mississippi State	24	Texas A&M	34	Texas A&M -21	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2023	11/11	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	10	Texas A&M -16.5	Texas A&M	40.5	Over
2022	10/01	Mississippi State	42	Texas A&M	24	Mississippi State -4	Mississippi State	45.0	Over
2021	10/02	Texas A&M	22	Mississippi State	26	Texas A&M -7	Mississippi State	45.5	Over
2020	10/17	Mississippi State	14	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M -4.5	Texas A&M	56.0	Under
2019	10/26	Texas A&M	49	Mississippi State	30	Texas A&M -10.5	Texas A&M	50.0	Over
2018	10/27	Mississippi State	28	Texas A&M	13	Mississippi State -1.5	Mississippi State	42.5	Under
2017	10/28	Texas A&M	14	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -3.5	Mississippi State	55.5	Under
2016	11/05	Mississippi State	35	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M -13	Mississippi State	61.0	Over
2015	10/03	Texas A&M	30	Mississippi State	17	Texas A&M -6	Texas A&M	62.5	Under
2014	10/04	Mississippi State	48	Texas A&M	31	Texas A&M -1	Mississippi State	0
2013	11/09	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	41	Texas A&M -19	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/03	Mississippi State	13	Texas A&M	38
2000	12/30	Mississippi State	43	Texas A&M	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	7	8	6 Overs
Texas A&M	8	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 5	9 - 4	6 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 10	4 - 9	2 - 3	2 - 6

(#24) TA&M at (#101) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TA&M	MSST
Power RatePwr	#24	#101
SP+SP+	#13	#88
Perf GradeGrade	#57	#131
OffenseOff	#67	#108
DefenseDef	#58	#135
Spec TeamsST	#100	#56
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#5	#26

Texas A&M Notes(12/28) 0-3 finish. Elko didn't change a thing in yr 1
(11/30) Off pitiful vs Tex, Rgame awful, Run Def mauled
(11/30) Beat LSU and NOTHING else to finish 8-4
(11/24) Def mauled by Aub, comeback fell in 4 OT
(11/5) Lead RB Moss (765 yds) out for season (leg)
(10/27) QB Reed 3 TD rush over LSU, DL was diff in game
(10/19) Off bad vs MSU. Def just OK this week
(10/7) Weigman/Rgame/Def great in rout of Mizzu.
(9/28) Def/Reed just good enough vs Hogs. Run D great
(9/26) Rgame 237 (5.6 ypc) in fight w/ BG. Reed better QB
(9/16) Rgame 310 (5.6 ypc) @ UF. QB Reed adds mobility
(8/31) Wegman awful vs ND (12/30/2 Int). RB? Playmakers?
Texas A&M Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Texas A&M on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	#67	#135
SuccessSuc	#41	#133
ExplosiveExp	#106	#18
PPAPPA	#54	#130
PowerPwr	#83	#130
SP+SP+	#21	#98
Pts POPPO	#93	#113
HavocHav	#13	#134

Texas A&M Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#56	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#38	#108
Run ExplRExp	#66	#13
PPAExp	#37	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#49	-
OL YdsOLY	#27	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#29	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Texas A&M Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#105	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#58	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#72	#48
PPAExp	#70	#134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#47	#136
F7 HavocF7	#12	#133
DB HavocDB	#28	#123

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
Perf GradePerf	#108	#58
SuccessSuc	#109	#23
ExplosiveExp	#6	#131
PPAPPA	#78	#67
PowerPwr	#100	#35
SP+SP+	#82	#19
Pts POPPO	#86	#9
HavocHav	#127	#17

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
Run GameRun	#106	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#38
Run ExplRExp	#28	#117
PPAExp	#92	#60
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#10
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#8
TackleTak	-	#115

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#101
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#22
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#131
PPAExp	#76	#62
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#29
F7 HavocF7	#122	#46
DB HavocDB	#116	#2

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73°

Rematch from Week 8
Texas A&M 21.0 (55.5)
Texas A&M won at Mississippi State this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State last year (34-24)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2023 (51-10)
Mississippi State beat Texas A&M in 2022 (42-24)

TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Marcel Reed	147	240	61%	1864	15	6	7.8
Conner Weigman	64	114	56%	819	3	5	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Le'Veon Moss	121	765	10	6.3	75
Amari Daniels	139	661	8	4.8	71
Marcel Reed	116	547	7	4.7	31
E.J. Smith (Tr)	54	207	0	3.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Thomas	39	574	8	14.7	73
Jabre Barber (Tr)	38	381	2	10.0	58
Jahdae Walker	29	345	2	11.9	40
Tre Watson (Tr)	21	280	1	13.3	33

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taurean York	83	10	3	2	4
Dalton Brooks	59	6	1	3	2
Marcus Ratcliffe (Tr)	48	4	0	1	0
Scooby Williams (Tr)	43	8	0	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	37	14	4	4	2
Cashius Howell (Tr)	40	9	4	8	7
Taurean York	83	10	3	2	4
Malick Sylla	6	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Lee III (Tr)	42	1	0	0	10
Cashius Howell (Tr)	40	9	4	8	7
Albert Regis	36	3	1	2	6

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3