Mississippi State at Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Texas -37 (58.5) (0) Open: -35.5
Texas 35 - Mississippi State: 13 (SEC)

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TEX 3rd straight Home Game
TEX is playing their 5th straight game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Texas -34.5 (SP+ TEX -28)
Projected Score: MSST: 11 - TEX: 46 (57)
TEX Win prob: 100% | Cover: 57%
MSST Travel: 568 miles

Longhorns (13 - 3) (8 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 13 - 3 (#3)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas vs Colorado State	-35.5	59.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Texas at Michigan	-7.0	42.0	W 31 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Texas vs UTSA	-36.5	56.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas vs UL Monroe	-43.5	54.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas vs Mississippi State	-37.0	58.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Texas vs Oklahoma	-16.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Texas vs Georgia	-4.0	57.0	L 15 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/26	Texas at Vanderbilt	-17.0	50.5	W 27 - 24	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Texas vs Florida	-24.5	48.5	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Texas at Arkansas	-13.0	57.5	W 20 - 10	U	N
Sat 11/23	Texas vs Kentucky	-18.5	47.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/30	Texas at Texas A&M	-4.5	49.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 12/7	Texas vs Georgia	-2.5	50.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/21	Texas vs Clemson	-13.5	49.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Texas vs Arizona State	-13.5	52.5	W 39 - 31	O	N
Fri 1/10	Texas vs Ohio State	+6.5	51.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	30.4	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	30.2	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1
TEX	#33 (.28)	45% (43)	30.5	42% (81)	3.19 (54)	176	48% (16)	266	3.84 (75)	#15 (.1)	36% (14)	20.3	33% (5)	38% (26)	3.43 (38)	47.5	1.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	30.4	25.8	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09
TEX Defense	14	20.3	17	35.9%	3.43	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	33%	38%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	30.2	31	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17
TEX Offense	14	30.5	38.8	44.7%	3.84	1.1	21	442	176	266	4.9	49%	51%	42%	48%	14%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9
Texas	14	29:31	21.4	39%	63%	5.9	47.5	1.1	1.6	5.4	2.1	5	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
TEX Defense	14	41% (4)	33% (5)	-	-	-	-	-.06 (4)	2.45 (5)	54% (2)	11% (37)	0.79 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)
TEX Offense	14	49% (80)	42% (81)	35.6	175.6	4.9	26 (30)	.21 (35)	3.19 (54)	64% (121)	8% (33)	1.13 (14)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
TEX Defense	14	58% (131)	38% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (9)	.24 (52)	1.7 (92)	36% (20)	28% (31)	.27 (42)	8% (15)	2.1 (87)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)
TEX Offense	14	51% (50)	48% (16)	20.9	30.9	266.4	8.6	12.7	24 (41)	9 (40)	.35 (38)	1.5 (102)	30% (32)	34% (32)	.45 (32)	5% (46)	2.1 (52)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 391.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34 Texas: 27.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1 Texas: 24.1

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 27.23 #3
Texas's Offense Rating: 23.63 #31
Texas's Defense Rating: -0.40 #3
2024 Talent Rating: 617.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 66 #4
Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 3.0
Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.1 #7
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #13
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 10.8 #2

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 46
Mississippi State 11

Projected Total Points: 57

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Mississippi State	38	Texas	45	Texas -8.5	Mississippi State	48.5	Over
2024	09/28	Texas	35	Mississippi State	13	Texas -37	Mississippi State	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	2	0	1 Overs
Mississippi State	0	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#101) MSST at (#3) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#3
SP+SP+	#88	#7
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#5
OffenseOff	#108	#18
DefenseDef	#135	#1
Spec TeamsST	#56	#33
TalentTal	#37	#6
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#4

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Texas Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#1
SuccessSuc	#126	#14
ExplosiveExp	#58	#94
PPAPPA	#116	#15
PowerPwr	#100	#3
SP+SP+	#82	#2
Pts POPPO	#96	#38
HavocHav	#76	#21

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	#106	#15
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#5
Run ExplRExp	#55	#5
PPAExp	#113	#4
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#5
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#11
TackleTak	-	#35

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#1
Pass SuccessPSuc	#120	#26
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#92
PPAExp	#115	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#5
F7 HavocF7	#81	#37
DB HavocDB	#65	#15

Texas on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#135
SuccessSuc	#43	#71
ExplosiveExp	#40	#34
PPAPPA	#33	#61
PowerPwr	#31	#130
SP+SP+	#13	#98
Pts POPPO	#75	#115
HavocHav	#27	#80

Texas Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#25	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#81	#64
Run ExplRExp	#14	#32
PPAExp	#35	#41
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#54	#45
Stuff RateStuff	#79	#39
TackleTak	-	#103

Texas Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#61	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#55
PPAExp	#38	#84
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#136
F7 HavocF7	#33	#51
DB HavocDB	#46	#107

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Texas -37.0 (58.5)
Texas won vs Mississippi State this year (35-13)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Mississippi State last year (45-38)
Texas beat Mississippi State in 2024 (35-13)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Barnes (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quinn Ewers	293	445	66%	3472	31	12	7.8
Arch Manning	61	90	68%	938	9	2	10.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Wisner	226	1064	5	4.7	43
Jaydon Blue	134	730	8	5.4	77
Jerrick Gibson	78	377	4	4.8	25
Arch Manning	25	108	4	4.3	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Golden (Tr)	58	987	9	17.0	54
Gunnar Helm	60	786	7	13.1	49
Isaiah Bond (Tr)	34	540	5	15.9	56
DeAndre Moore Jr.	39	455	7	11.7	49

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Andrew Mukuba (Tr)	69	4	0	1	6
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	48	14	9	9	2
Anthony Hill Jr.	113	17	8	4	1
Trey Moore (Tr)	36	11	7	6	1
Barryn Sorrell	43	11	6	12	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahdae Barron	67	3	1	2	10
Michael Taaffe	78	6	2	1	10
Malik Muhammad	36	1	0	0	8