Mississippi State at Arizona State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arizona State Sun Devils(#12)

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -6.5 (57.5) (-225) Open: -6.5 | 59.5
Arizona State 30 - Mississippi State: 23

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 98.8° (13% Hum)
Wind: 12.7 MPH
ASU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Arizona State -22.5 (SP+ ASU -14)
Projected Score: MSST: 18 - ASU: 40 (58)
ASU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 1331 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Sun Devils (11 - 3) (12 - 2 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
ASU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Arizona State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Arizona State vs Wyoming	-6.5	47.0	W 48 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Arizona State vs Mississippi State	-6.5	57.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Thu 9/12	Arizona State at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Arizona State at Texas Tech	+4.5	58.5	L 22 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Arizona State vs Kansas	-2.5	50.0	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Fri 10/11	Arizona State vs Utah	+6.0	46.5	W 27 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Arizona State at Cincinnati	+5.5	51.0	L 14 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Arizona State at Oklahoma State	-5.0	57.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Arizona State vs UCF	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Arizona State at Kansas State	+7.5	51.5	W 24 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Arizona State vs BYU	-3.5	49.0	W 28 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Arizona State at Arizona	-7.5	52.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 12/7	Arizona State vs Iowa State	+1.5	51.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Wed 1/1	Arizona State vs Texas	+13.5	52.5	L 31 - 39	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)	32.9	52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)	22.6	41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)		52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)		41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
ASU Defense	14	22.6	22.3	42.4%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	41%	44%	16%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
ASU Offense	14	32.9	33.8	49.8%	4.14	0.6	20	395	187	208	4.9	59%	41%	52%	47%	12%	.31

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Arizona State	14	29:54	20.4	47%	53%	6	50.1	0.6	1.4	4	1.3	3	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
ASU Defense	14	45% (14)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (27)	2.97 (61)	63% (19)	8% (116)	1 (76)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)
ASU Offense	14	59% (14)	52% (6)	38.1	187	4.9	28 (25)	.27 (12)	3.35 (19)	73% (76)	7% (18)	0.96 (71)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
ASU Defense	14	54% (119)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (57)	1.4 (18)	32% (65)	30% (68)	.14 (5)	8% (21)	1.9 (27)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
ASU Offense	14	41% (120)	47% (21)	14.9	23.9	208.4	8.7	14	25 (31)	5 (6)	.39 (14)	1.6 (43)	27% (11)	38% (5)	.45 (21)	4% (16)	1.9 (115)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34 Arizona State: 15.205

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1 Arizona State: 9.4

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 15.205 #12
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 28.03 #7
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.01 #43
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Arizona State's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Arizona State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #32
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 40
Mississippi State 18

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona State 33
Mississippi State 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Arizona State 34
Mississippi State 22

Total Points: 56

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Arizona State's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 12 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Mississippi State	24	Arizona State	20	Arizona State -6.0	Mississippi State	58.5	Under
2024	09/07	Arizona State	30	Mississippi State	23	Arizona State -6.5	Arizona State	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arizona State	1	1	0 Overs
Mississippi State	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#101) MSST at (#12) ASU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	ASU
Power RatePwr	#101	#12
SP+SP+	#88	#35
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#76
OffenseOff	#108	#40
DefenseDef	#135	#98
Spec TeamsST	#56	#86
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#53

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Arizona State Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ASU Def
Perf GradePerf	#108	#98
SuccessSuc	#109	#79
ExplosiveExp	#6	#55
PPAPPA	#78	#36
PowerPwr	#100	#43
SP+SP+	#82	#26
Pts POPPO	#86	#51
HavocHav	#127	#75

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ASU Def
Run GameRun	#106	#81
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#49
Run ExplRExp	#28	#76
PPAExp	#92	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#47
TackleTak	-	#78

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ASU Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#69
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#106
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#18
PPAExp	#76	#57
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#134
F7 HavocF7	#122	#116
DB HavocDB	#116	#21

Arizona State on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#135
SuccessSuc	#8	#133
ExplosiveExp	#100	#18
PPAPPA	#13	#130
PowerPwr	#7	#130
SP+SP+	#32	#98
Pts POPPO	#48	#113
HavocHav	#11	#134

Arizona State Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#7	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#108
Run ExplRExp	#71	#13
PPAExp	#12	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#19	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Arizona State Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	ASU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#21	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#48
PPAExp	#14	#134
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#20	#136
F7 HavocF7	#18	#133
DB HavocDB	#16	#123

Program Comparison
ASU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sun Devil Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 99° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Arizona State -6.5 (57.5)
Arizona State won vs Mississippi State this year (30-23)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Mississippi State last year (30-23)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3

ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Jeff Sims (Tr)	13	25	52%	168	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cameron Skattebo	293	1715	21	5.9	53
Sam Leavitt (Tr)	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
DeCarlos Brooks	37	148	1	4.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Cameron Skattebo	45	605	3	13.4	66
Xavier Guillory	22	339	5	15.4	61
Chamon Metayer (Tr)	32	306	5	9.6	29

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser (Tr)	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Caleb McCullough	76	8	1	1	1
Shamari Simmons	72	9	0	4	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika (Tr)	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	1	9
Laterrance Welch (Tr)	19	1	7
Xavion Alford	85	1	5