Vanderbilt at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, November 7th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS

Commodores (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (26 - 36)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 2.4 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN coming off BYE
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Vanderbilt -7.5 (SP+ VAN -16)
Projected Score: VAN: 34 - MSST: 26 (60)
VAN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 217 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Vanderbilt vs Austin Peay	-40
Sat 9/12	Vanderbilt vs Delaware	-33
Sat 9/19	Vanderbilt vs NC State	-12
Sat 9/26	Vanderbilt at Auburn	-1.5
Sat 10/3	Vanderbilt at Georgia	+12.5
Sat 10/10	Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss	+1.5
Sat 10/17	Vanderbilt vs Arkansas	-15
Sat 10/24	Vanderbilt at Kentucky	-11.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Vanderbilt at Mississippi State	-7.5
Sat 11/14	Vanderbilt vs Alabama	-1.5
Sat 11/21	Vanderbilt at Florida	-4.5
Sat 11/28	Vanderbilt vs Tennessee	-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-27
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+0
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+5.5
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+8.5
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+9
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+13
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+11
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+17.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+7.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+4
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-30
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+16.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#1 (.44)	52% (1)	38.5	50% (8)	3.37 (9)	176	54% (3)	287	5 (3)	#99 (.2)	42% (68)	22.8	40% (46)	43% (91)	3.9 (90)	59.7	0.9	1.2
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	13	38.5	33	51.9%	5	0.9	24	463	176	287	5.7	47%	52%	50%	54%	13%	.44
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	13	22.8	23	41.7%	3.9	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	40%	43%	17%	.2
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	13	31:18	24.1	51%	56%	6.8	59.7	0.9	1.2	6.2	2.4	1	29.5
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	13	47% (92)	50% (8)	30.9	175.9	5.7	35 (4)	.35 (1)	3.37 (9)	76% (38)	8% (30)	1.21 (2)
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	13	44% (11)	40% (46)	-	-	-	-	.04 (31)	2.66 (24)	72% (75)	11% (20)	0.93 (54)
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	13	52% (44)	54% (3)	21.5	30.8	287.3	9.3	13.4	30 (22)	8 (34)	.55 (1)	1.5 (74)	26% (13)	49% (1)	.78 (1)	5% (28)	2 (78)
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	13	54% (124)	43% (91)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (75)	.35 (115)	1.6 (76)	34% (25)	30% (78)	.38 (109)	6% (69)	2 (78)
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: 12.88 #22
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 22.11 #10
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 14.23 #45
2026 Talent Rating: 818.00 #49
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #49
Vanderbilt's 2026 Expected Record: 10.6 - 2.4
Vanderbilt's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.3 #11
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9 #5
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 12.88 Mississippi State: 8.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: 20.3 Mississippi State: 4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.965 #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12 #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29 #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Vanderbilt 34
Mississippi State 26

Projected Total Points: 60

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	10/23	Vanderbilt	6	Mississippi State	45	Mississippi State -21	Mississippi State	53.0	Under
2020	11/07	Mississippi State	24	Vanderbilt	17	Mississippi State -18.5	Vanderbilt	45.0	Under
2014	11/22	Mississippi State	51	Vanderbilt	0	Mississippi State -30.5	Mississippi State	0
2009	09/19	Vanderbilt	3	Mississippi State	15
2008	10/11	Mississippi State	17	Vanderbilt	14
2004	10/02	Vanderbilt	31	Mississippi State	13
2003	10/04	Mississippi State	30	Vanderbilt	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	6	2	0 Overs
Vanderbilt	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 5	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#22) VAN at (#29) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#22	#29
SP+SP+	#11	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#49	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#27

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#1	#102
ExplosiveExp	#9	#71
PPAPPA	#1	#110
PowerPwr	#10	#48
SP+SP+	#5	#84
Pts POPPO	#3	#69
HavocHav	#25	#110

Vanderbilt Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#8	#124
Run ExplRExp	#2	#31
PPAExp	#1	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#9	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Vanderbilt Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	VAN Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#3	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#124
PPAExp	#1	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#30	#121
DB HavocDB	#28	#69

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	VAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#68
ExplosiveExp	#45	#103
PPAPPA	#90	#99
PowerPwr	#22	#45
SP+SP+	#39	#39
Pts POPPO	#22	#90
HavocHav	#117	#39

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#46
Run ExplRExp	#68	#54
PPAExp	#71	#31
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#24
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#31
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#91
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#76
PPAExp	#93	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#20
DB HavocDB	#81	#69

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

VAN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

VAN's OC Tim Beck (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blaze Berlowitz	9	17	53%	131	1	0	7.7
Whit Muschamp	2	3	67%	40	0	0	13.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	106	570	11	5.4	65
Makhilyn Young	45	411	6	9.1	80
Jamezell Lassiter	9	143	2	15.9	48
Blaze Berlowitz	11	81	1	7.4	43

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Junior Sherrill	54	784	7	14.5	46
Ja'Cory Thomas (Tr)	41	714	5	17.4	55
Jayvontay Conner (Tr)	23	333	3	14.5	79
Cole Spence	15	233	2	15.5	33

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Steve Gregory (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	71	4	2	5	3
Bryan Longwell	70	9	1	4	2
Talan Carter (Tr)	55	7	2	3	2
Nicholas Rinaldi	47	7	4	9	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nicholas Rinaldi	47	7	4	9	1
Bryce Cowan	32	4	3	5	1
C.J. Heard	71	4	2	5	3
Talan Carter (Tr)	55	7	2	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	71	4	2	5	3
Ricardo Jones (Tr)	39	1	0	0	3
Jordan Matthews	19	1	0	0	3

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Amaree Williams (Tr)	10	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5