UL Monroe at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview

UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS

Warhawks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (8 - 16)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#115)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Mississippi State -27 (SP+ MSST -26)
Projected Score: ULM: 15 - MSST: 42 (56)
MSST Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
ULM Travel: 200 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ULM Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UL Monroe's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	UL Monroe at Mississippi State	+27

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-27
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+0
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+5.5
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+8.5
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+9
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+13
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+11
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+17.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+7.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+4
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-30
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+16.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM	#114 (.09)	36% (125)	16.6	36% (127)	2.7 (112)	163	38% (109)	160	3.19 (119)	#87 (.19)	41% (59)	31.9	40% (43)	42% (74)	4.21 (118)	65	1.6	0.8
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ULM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Offense	12	16.6	15.4	36.5%	3.19	1.6	17	322	163	160	4.6	54%	43%	36%	38%	21%	.09
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ULM Defense	12	31.9	39	40.9%	4.21	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	14%	.19
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UL Monroe	12	29:37	17.4	33%	38%	7.3	65	1.6	0.8	5.5	1.9	0	26.8
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Offense	12	54% (34)	36% (127)	35.7	162.6	4.6	12 (119)	.05 (106)	2.7 (112)	78% (27)	13% (129)	1.11 (14)
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ULM Defense	12	51% (81)	40% (43)	-	-	-	-	.08 (54)	2.83 (56)	74% (92)	10% (68)	1.03 (103)
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Offense	12	43% (107)	38% (109)	14.3	25.2	159.6	6.3	11.2	15 (75)	12 (108)	.21 (91)	1.8 (7)	37% (134)	26% (114)	.16 (118)	8% (120)	2.3 (5)
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ULM Defense	12	48% (62)	42% (74)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (75)	.31 (101)	1.7 (115)	31% (82)	32% (95)	.36 (102)	5% (110)	2.1 (115)
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -14.79 #117
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 4.16 #109
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 23.95 #117
2026 Talent Rating: 290.00 #133
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
UL Monroe's 2026 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UL Monroe's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.6 #131
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #127
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.7 #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 516.43
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -14.79 Mississippi State: 8.965

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -21.6 Mississippi State: 4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.965 #29
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 18.12 #22
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 14.29 #48
2026 Talent Rating: 978.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.38
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 42
UL Monroe 15

Projected Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	0	0	0 Overs
UL Monroe	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#117) ULM at (#29) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ULM	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#117	#29
SP+SP+	#131	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#133	#16
Blue ChipsBC%	#56	#27

UL Monroe Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

UL Monroe on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#125	#102
ExplosiveExp	#6	#71
PPAPPA	#114	#110
PowerPwr	#109	#48
SP+SP+	#127	#84
Pts POPPO	#119	#69
HavocHav	#134	#110

UL Monroe Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#127	#124
Run ExplRExp	#14	#31
PPAExp	#106	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#112	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

UL Monroe Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	ULM Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#124
PPAExp	#91	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#129	#121
DB HavocDB	#120	#69

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ULM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#59
ExplosiveExp	#45	#121
PPAPPA	#90	#87
PowerPwr	#22	#117
SP+SP+	#39	#123
Pts POPPO	#22	#118
HavocHav	#117	#100

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ULM Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#43
Run ExplRExp	#68	#103
PPAExp	#71	#54
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#56
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#88
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	ULM Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#74
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#115
PPAExp	#93	#101
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#68
DB HavocDB	#81	#110

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Armenta	147	252	58%	1619	12	8	6.4
Landon Graves	19	40	48%	185	2	2	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landon Graves	14	70	0	5.0	16
Aidan Armenta	60	60	2	1.0	32
Austin Carlisle (Tr)	6	44	0	7.3	13
Jacob Godfrey	4	35	0	8.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nic Trujillo	23	368	4	16.0	52
JP Coulter	21	234	0	11.1	39
Jacob Godfrey	16	191	2	11.9	37
Tyler Griffin	13	168	2	12.9	48

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Flemmings	80	10	3	2	1
Jabari Tiller	46	8	3	0	1
Marcus Ross	35	6	2	2	0
Carl Fauntroy Jr.	33	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Howell	19	5	4	4	0
Noah Flemmings	80	10	3	2	1
Jabari Tiller	46	8	3	0	1
Marcus Ross	35	6	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaeden Calender	25	2	1	2	2
Jalen Foster	29	0	0	1	2
Lynard Harris	21	0	0	0	2

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Amaree Williams (Tr)	10	2	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5