Georgia at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia logo (#5)Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (3 - 0) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (105 - 18)
Avg Score : 39 - 18 (44 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.6 - 2.4 (#12)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
UGA 2nd straight Road Game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Georgia -9.5   (SP+ UGA -12.5)

Projected Score: UGA: 36 - MSST: 27 (63)
UGA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UGA Travel: 313 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (44 - 10 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Georgia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia vs Marshall-39.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Georgia vs Austin Peay-47.055.5W 28 - 6UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia at Tennessee-3.550.5W 44 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Georgia vs Alabama-0
Sat 10/4 Georgia vs Kentucky-20
Sat 10/11 Georgia at Auburn+0
Sat 10/18 Georgia vs Ole Miss-6.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Georgia vs Florida-6.5
Sat 11/8 Georgia at Mississippi State-9.5
Sat 11/15 Georgia vs Texas-5
Sat 11/22 Georgia vs Charlotte-46
Sat 11/29 Georgia vs Georgia Tech-12

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-21.549.5
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+5.5
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+11
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+5.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+7
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+6

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UGA#44 (.29)53% (20)3954% (26)3.34 (34)20953% (22)2615.42 (15)#46 (.06)38% (58)1830% (14)47% (110)4.11 (94)261.31
MSST#26 (.36)50% (33)40.356% (18)3.14 (53)17944% (62)2634.94 (33)#32 (.02)38% (57)12.343% (87)32% (29)3.4 (65)84.70.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)46% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)39% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UGA Offense3394453.4%5.421.3274702092614.556%44%54%53%11%.29
MSST Defense312.31037.7%3.42 - - - - - 58%42%43%32%18%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UGA Defense3184137.8%4.111 - - - - - 52%48%30%47%14%.06
MSST Offense340.343.549.7%4.940.721441179263550%50%56%44%15%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia335:222748%83%3.3261.3141028.4
Mississippi State323:052155%50%1084.70.7251.3034.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UGA Offense356% (34)54% (26)46.32094.510 (10).21 (46)3.34 (34)74% (62)7% (31)0.8 (106)
MSST Defense358% (119)43% (87) - - - - -.02 (41)3.03 (93)58% (32)9% (79)0.75 (25)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UGA Defense352% (88)30% (14) - - - - -.14 (14)2.29 (27)78% (100)9% (93)0.62 (6)
MSST Offense350% (74)56% (18)36178.759 (17).26 (36)3.14 (53)57% (114)7% (32)0.95 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UGA Offense344% (96)53% (22)2333.3261.37.811.45 (54)1 (23).39 (48)1.2 (121)24% (17)31% (73).29 (82)4% (39)1.7 (106)
MSST Defense342% (18)32% (29) - - - - - - 4 (12).09 (34)1.5 (63)32% (84)21% (30).07 (27)9% (16)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UGA Defense348% (48)47% (110) - - - - - - 3 (28).29 (99)1.4 (45)28% (119)10% (2)-.02 (18)5% (80)2.6 (129)
MSST Offense350% (64)44% (62)19.729.3262.7913.47 (23)2 (60).46 (33)1.8 (13)29% (59)38% (33).72 (16)8% (120)2.7 (4)

Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 32.22 #4
Georgia's Offense Rating: 30.86 #5
Georgia's Defense Rating: -4.15 #11
2025 Talent Rating: 1140.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74% #1
Georgia's 2025 Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4
Georgia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.4 #8
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #8
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia: 32.22   Mississippi State: 17.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia: 21.4   Mississippi State: 8.7




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 17.145 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Georgia Scoring
Offense: 39 PPG
Offense on Road: 44
Defense: 18 PPG
Defense on Road: 41

Georgia's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia 36
Mississippi State 27


Total Points: 63

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.5
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 10

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Georgia41Mississippi State31GeorgiaGeorgia -34Mississippi State53.5Over
202211/12Mississippi State19Georgia45GeorgiaGeorgia -16.5Georgia53.0Over
202011/21Georgia31Mississippi State24GeorgiaGeorgia -25.5Mississippi State44.5Over
201709/23Georgia31Mississippi State3GeorgiaGeorgia -2.5Georgia50.0Under
201110/01Georgia24Mississippi State10Georgia
201009/25Mississippi State24Georgia12Mississippi State
200610/21Georgia27Mississippi State24Georgia
200509/24Mississippi State10Georgia23Georgia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State123 Overs
Georgia721 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 21 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams2 - 63 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#4) Georgia Info
Power Rating: 32.22 #4
Offense Rating: 30.86 #5
Defense Rating: -4.15 #11
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.4 #8
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #8
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #15
Talent Rating: 1140.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74% #1
Expected Record: 9.6 - 2.4

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Great Offense Success Rate of 53%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.42 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Great Pass Success 53%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.11 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Poor Pass Def Success 47%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Georgia has lost 5 straight
Georgia has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Georgia Notes
(9/13) Pass Def torched by Tennessee, DB's beat 1-1
(9/8) Young talent on Def loaded w/ future NFL'ers
(8/16) CAMP: Skill players are massive upgrade TY
(8/13) 7 home games, only 3 on road (2 neutral)
(8/12) WR - upgrade w/ Branch/Thomas, top 10 PFF
(7/19) QB Stockton CFP starter, but watch So. Puglisi
(6/6) Def still v good LY, DL rebuild still top 10 via PFF
(6/2) Watch So QB Ryan Puglisi. Getting player hype
(5/23) CBs Everette & Harris a top duo in CFB
(5/16) TE duo of Delp & Luckie is a CFB top unit

Georgia Highlights
Georgia in Undefeated

Georgia has Really Good Running Game (#27)
Georgia offense is efficent (#20)
Georgia offense is good in red zone (#15)
Georgia offense is good on 3rd downs
Georgia defense does not give up big plays (#29)
Georgia has a good run defense (#14)
Georgia Defensive Line is very good (#27)
Georgia commits very few Penalties (#13)
Georgia defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Georgia Deficiencies
Georgia Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Georgia offense is not Explosive (#129)
Georgia does not Sack the QB (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMSSTUGA
OverallOver#38#31
OffenseOff#46#32
DefenseDef#38#42
Special TeamsST#84#12
PassingPass#28#19
RushingRush#13#63
Run BlockRBLK#79#34
Pass BlockPBLK#46#47
Route RunningWR Rt#65#47
TacklingTkl#39#5
Run DefenseR Def#36#11
Pass Rush DefPRush#75#92
Coverage DefCov#20#72

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Mississippi State last year (41-31)
Georgia beat Mississippi State in 2022 (45-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UGA | MSST
Depth Chart: UGA | MSST
Rosters: UGA | MSST
(#28) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 17.145 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Mississippi State has lost 6 straight
Mississippi State has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated
Mississippi State is Undefeated at Home
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread at Home
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)


  
Georgia's OC Mike Bobo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunner Stockton638971%721408.1
Ryan Puglisi61155%63115.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Frazier3918924.821
Dwight Phillips Jr.1714418.523
Gunner Stockton2812434.414
Chauncey Bowens2912124.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachariah Branch (Tr)11181216.547
Colbie Young13179013.845
London Humphreys896212.031
Cash Jones65709.518

View Georgia's Full Roster
Georgia's DC Glenn Schumann
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Raylen Wilson233010
C.J. Allen222101
KJ Bolden170001
Kyron Jones140000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Cole143201
C.J. Allen222101
Raylen Wilson233010
Rasean Dinkins20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joenel Aguero60002
KJ Bolden170001
C.J. Allen222101

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen558168%722628.9
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)2450%20005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)3017045.725
Davon Booth2712614.716
Xavier Gayten450112.525
Johnnie Daniels94404.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)15278318.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)17210212.448
Jordan Mosley394131.375
Seydou Traore577115.455

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith180001
Nic Mitchell180000
Derion Gullette (Tr)160000
Jahron Manning (Tr)140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Deonte Anderson51100
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)51111
Joseph Head Jr.30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones90003
DeAgo Brumfeld81003
Isaac Smith180001