Georgia at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia logo (#5)Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 PM EST)
Georgia -9.5 (56.5) (-345)  Open: -9.5
Georgia 41 - Mississippi State: 21  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (12 - 2) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (105 - 18)
Avg Score : 32 - 18 (35 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 12 - 1 (#3)
Wins: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
UGA 2nd straight Road Game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Georgia -17  (SP+ UGA -19.5)

Projected Score: UGA: 37 - MSST: 20 (57)
UGA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UGA Travel: 313 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Georgia's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia vs Marshall-39.555.5W 45 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Georgia vs Austin Peay-47.055.5W 28 - 6UN
Sat 9/13 Georgia at Tennessee-3.550.5W 44 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Georgia vs Alabama-2.553.5L 21 - 24UN
Sat 10/4 Georgia vs Kentucky-19.548.5W 35 - 14OY
Sat 10/11 Georgia at Auburn-4.545.5W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 Georgia vs Ole Miss-7.556.5W 43 - 35OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Georgia vs Florida-7.050.5W 24 - 20UN
Sat 11/8 Georgia at Mississippi State-9.556.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 11/15 Georgia vs Texas-3.550.5W 35 - 10UY
Sat 11/22 Georgia vs Charlotte-42.553.5W 35 - 3UN
Fri 11/28 Georgia vs Georgia Tech-15.559.5W 16 - 9UN
Sat 12/6 Georgia vs Alabama-2.547.5W 28 - 7UY
Thu 1/1 Georgia vs Ole Miss-6.053.5L 34 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.053.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UGA#24 (.27)49% (13)32.148% (21)3.11 (38)17449% (15)2054.81 (6)#28 (.08)37% (22)17.635% (9)40% (52)3.66 (68)40.80.90.9
MSST#86 (.15)42% (73)30.545% (54)2.82 (92)16139% (99)2374.49 (19)#104 (.21)44% (103)29.248% (124)41% (60)3.64 (66)61.81.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)46% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)39% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UGA Offense1432.13548.6%4.810.9233781742054.556%43%48%49%13%.27
MSST Defense1229.227.944.2%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%41%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UGA Defense1417.62437.4%3.660.9 - - - - - 45%54%35%40%15%.08
MSST Offense1230.533.941.9%4.491.3223981612373.853%46%45%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia1431:2122.645%76%4.340.80.90.93.91.4029.4
Mississippi State1228:4221.844%48%7.361.81.31.44.51.7028.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UGA Offense1456% (27)48% (21)38.5173.54.529 (16).18 (40)3.11 (38)74% (56)8% (34)0.93 (81)
MSST Defense1253% (105)48% (124) - - - - .16 (99)3.42 (135)74% (94)8% (120)0.89 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UGA Defense1445% (14)35% (9) - - - - -.02 (10)2.47 (10)71% (66)8% (108)0.77 (4)
MSST Offense1253% (40)45% (54)42.3161.43.828 (16).12 (64)2.82 (92)71% (72)12% (125)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UGA Offense1443% (108)49% (15)19.127.4204.67.510.724 (61)7 (20).36 (35)1.3 (132)28% (20)32% (45).34 (56)5% (22)1.8 (122)
MSST Defense1245% (31)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (6).28 (83)1.7 (114)29% (104)30% (74).33 (88)6% (64)2.2 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UGA Defense1454% (123)40% (52) - - - - - - 9 (75).21 (55)1.4 (10)31% (78)24% (11).18 (27)7% (34)2 (65)
MSST Offense1246% (91)39% (99)18.930.32377.812.519 (75)9 (60).2 (95)1.7 (16)34% (115)30% (70).35 (51)7% (94)2.3 (7)

Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 27.75  #6
Georgia's Offense Rating: 28.47  #4
Georgia's Defense Rating: -5.30  #13
2025 Talent Rating: 1140.00  #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 74%  #1
Georgia's 2025 Expected Record: 12.0 - 1.0
Georgia's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.4  #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2  #15
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6  #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia: 27.75   Mississippi State: 8.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia: 23.4   Mississippi State: 3.8




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.505  #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96  #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Georgia Scoring
Offense: 32.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Georgia's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia 37
Mississippi State 20


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia 32
Mississippi State 24

Total Points: 56

Based on Entire Season
Georgia 31
Mississippi State 27

Total Points: 58
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Mississippi State21Georgia41Georgia -9.5Georgia56.5Over
202410/12Georgia41Mississippi State31Georgia -34Mississippi State53.5Over
202211/12Mississippi State19Georgia45Georgia -16.5Georgia53.0Over
202011/21Georgia31Mississippi State24Georgia -25.5Mississippi State44.5Over
201709/23Georgia31Mississippi State3Georgia -2.5Georgia50.0Under
201110/01Georgia24Mississippi State10
201009/25Mississippi State24Georgia12
200610/21Georgia27Mississippi State24
200509/24Mississippi State10Georgia23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State124 Overs
Georgia831 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 31 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams3 - 64 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#6) UGA at (#48) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUGAMSST
Power RatePwr #6 #48
SP+SP+ #6 #58
Perf GradeGrade #12 #102
OffenseOff #21 #94
DefenseDef #30 #105
Spec TeamsST #38 #84
TalentTal #2 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #1 #27
Georgia Notes
(11/16) Killed Texas, Dawgs peaking. Def inj a concern
(10/20) Top WR Colbie Young out for season (fractured leg)
(10/19) Off torched Ole Miss, 500 yds, Rush Off improved
(10/18) At times playing 2 true Fr at OG vs Ole Miss
(9/30) DL cannot get pressure w/o LBs, have zero sacks
(9/15) Stockton, Off took huge leap in Tenn W.
(9/13) Pass Def torched by Tennessee, DB's beat 1-1
(9/8) Young talent on Def loaded w/ future NFL'ers
(8/16) CAMP: Skill players are massive upgrade TY
(8/13) 7 home games, only 3 on road (2 neutral)
(8/12) WR - upgrade w/ Branch/Thomas, top 10 PFF
(7/19) QB Stockton CFP starter, but watch So. Puglisi
Georgia Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Georgia on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
UGA OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #21 #105
SuccessSuc #13 #103
ExplosiveExp #131 #60
PPAPPA #24 #104
PowerPwr #4 #67
SP+SP+ #15 #76
Pts POPPO #6 #66
HavocHav #23 #107
Georgia Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
UGA OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #26 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #21 #124
Run ExplRExp #81 #32
PPAExp #40 #99
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLY #38 #135
Stuff RateStuff #86 #124
TackleTak -  #95
Georgia Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
UGA OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #22 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #15 #60
Pass ExplPExl #132 #114
PPAExp #35 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #8 #127
F7 HavocF7 #34 #120
DB HavocDB #22 #64
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffUGA Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #30
SuccessSuc #73 #22
ExplosiveExp #43 #10
PPAPPA #86 #28
PowerPwr #34 #13
SP+SP+ #42 #8
Pts POPPO #19 #68
HavocHav #120 #77
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffUGA Def
Run GameRun #74 #6
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #9
Run ExplRExp #65 #4
PPAExp #64 #10
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #10
Stuff RateStuff #79 #45
TackleTak -  #1
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffUGA Def
Pass GamePass #54 #53
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #52
Pass ExplPExl #16 #10
PPAExp #95 #55
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #123
F7 HavocF7 #125 #108
DB HavocDB #94 #34
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UGA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 73°
Rematch from Week 11
Georgia 9.5 (56.5)
Georgia won at Mississippi State this year (41-21)

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Mississippi State last year (41-31)
Georgia beat Mississippi State in 2022 (45-19)

  
UGA's OC Mike Bobo (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Gunner Stockton25135571%26912357.6
Ryan Puglisi162759%161126.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Frazier15886165.459
Chauncey Bowens9851665.343
Gunner Stockton11644283.822
Dwight Phillips Jr.3521016.023
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachariah Branch (Tr)73744510.247
Colbie Young23336114.645
Dillon Bell27279210.336
London Humphreys18276315.336

View Georgia's Full Roster

UGA's DC Glenn Schumann (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Allen858424
Raylen Wilson706231
KJ Bolden673004
Chris Cole547502
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Cole547502
C.J. Allen858424
Quintavius Johnson336233
Zayden Walker62200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ellis Robinson IV171007
Daylen Everette390016
Demello Jones231005

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor305555%388417.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)12863965.043
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor6439576.239
Xavier Gayten2414926.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)53948617.958
Anthony Evans III (Tr)63751411.957
Seydou Traore34361510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)19222011.749

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
Nic Mitchell725320
Brylan Lanier653102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell725320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Kalvin Dinkins253200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3000011
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
DeAgo Brumfeld331014