LSU at Mississippi State - 2021 Matchup Preview

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 25th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
LSU -1.5 (54.5)
LSU 28 - Mississippi State: 25 (SEC)

Tigers (6 - 7) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Ed Orgeron (47 - 15)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (16 - 20 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST is playing their 4th straight game
LSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -5.5 (SP+ MSST -6)
Projected Score: LSU: 25 - MSST: 26 (51)
LSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
LSU Travel: 253 miles

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	LSU at UCLA	-2.0	64.0	L 27 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	LSU vs McNeese	-39.0	66.0	W 34 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/18	LSU vs Central Michigan	-19.5	61.0	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/25	LSU at Mississippi State	-1.5	54.5	W 28 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/2	LSU vs Auburn	-2.5	57.0	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/9	LSU at Kentucky	+2.0	50.5	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/16	LSU vs Florida	+12.5	61.0	W 49 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/23	LSU at Ole Miss	+9.0	76.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	LSU at Alabama	+29.5	66.5	L 14 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/13	LSU vs Arkansas	+3.0	59.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/20	LSU vs UL Monroe	-29.0	57.5	W 27 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/27	LSU vs Texas A&M	+6.0	47.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Tue 1/4	LSU vs Kansas State	+9.5	47.0	L 20 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	.17	43%	22.8	45%	2.83	122	42%	312	3.22	.28	47%	19.8	49%	45%	3.62	46.2	1.3	2.3
MSST	.05	41%	30.4	47%	3	44	40%	296	2.9	.11	41%	30.2	42%	40%	3.18	60.2	2.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	10	22.8	16.4	43.4%	3.22	1.3	24	434	122	312	3.4	43%	57%	45%	42%	14%	.17
MSST Defense	11	30.2	27.9	41.1%	3.18	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	40%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	10	19.8	20.4	46.9%	3.62	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	49%	45%	19%	.28
MSST Offense	11	30.4	33.9	41.2%	2.9	2.3	19	340	44	296	2.4	23%	77%	47%	40%	20%	.05

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	10	30:56	23.5	34%	71%	6.1	46.2	1.3	2.3	6.2	2.4	5	28.2
Mississippi State	11	30:54	18.8	32%	57%	6.5	60.2	2.3	1.5	5.5	2.3	2	27.6

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	10	43%	45%	36.2	121.9	3.4	8	.02	2.83	70%	7%	0.71
MSST Defense	11	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.81	65%	9%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	10	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.01	56%	11%	1.01
MSST Offense	11	23%	47%	18.5	44.1	2.4	8	.06	3	74%	9%	0.76

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	10	57%	42%	24.7	42.1	312.1	7.4	12.6	24	9	.28	1.6	31%	36%	.4	7%	1.9
MSST Defense	11	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.18	1.7	30%	31%	.34	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	10	54%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.36	1.8	27%	33%	.47	8%	2.7
MSST Offense	11	77%	40%	33.9	50.6	296.3	5.9	8.7	17	18	.05	1.2	31%	28%	.23	11%	2.2

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: NR
LSU's Offense Rating: NR
LSU's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
LSU's 2021 Expected Record: -
LSU's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #65
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #72
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #57

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: Mississippi State: 7.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 4.1 Mississippi State: 10.5

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 7.75 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.4
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.4

LSU's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 26
LSU 25

Projected Total Points: 51

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Mississippi State	14	LSU	41	LSU -9.5	LSU	54.0	Over
2022	09/17	LSU	31	Mississippi State	16	Mississippi State -3	LSU	53.0	Under
2021	09/25	Mississippi State	25	LSU	28	LSU -1.5	LSU	54.5	Under
2020	09/26	LSU	34	Mississippi State	44	LSU -14.5	Mississippi State	57.0	Over
2019	10/19	Mississippi State	13	LSU	36	LSU -17.5	LSU	62.0	Under
2018	10/20	LSU	19	Mississippi State	3	LSU -6	LSU	45.5	Under
2017	09/16	Mississippi State	37	LSU	7	LSU -7.5	Mississippi State	53.5	Under
2016	09/17	LSU	23	Mississippi State	20	LSU -13	Mississippi State	47.0	Under
2015	09/12	Mississippi State	19	LSU	21	LSU -3	Mississippi State	52.5	Under
2014	09/20	LSU	29	Mississippi State	34	LSU -7	Mississippi State	0
2013	10/05	Mississippi State	26	LSU	59	LSU -9.5	LSU	0
2012	11/10	LSU	37	Mississippi State	17
2011	09/15	Mississippi State	6	LSU	19
2010	09/18	LSU	29	Mississippi State	7
2009	09/26	Mississippi State	26	LSU	30
2008	09/27	LSU	34	Mississippi State	24
2007	08/30	Mississippi State	0	LSU	45
2006	09/30	LSU	48	Mississippi State	17
2005	10/01	Mississippi State	7	LSU	37
2004	09/25	LSU	51	Mississippi State	0
2003	09/27	Mississippi State	6	LSU	41
2002	09/28	LSU	31	Mississippi State	13
2001	10/20	Mississippi State	0	LSU	42
2000	10/20	LSU	45	Mississippi State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	5	2 Overs
LSU	21	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	4 - 7	1 - 3	3 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 11	7 - 4	4 - 3	3 - 1

(#) LSU at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LSU	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#50	#65
OffenseOff	#80	#65
DefenseDef	#35	#64
Spec TeamsST	#42	#75
TalentTal	#5	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

LSU Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#72	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#119	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#17	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#35
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#57
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#119	#47
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#19

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#35
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

LSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
LSU 1.5 (54.5)
LSU won at Mississippi State this year (28-25)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Mississippi State in 2023 (41-14)

LSU's OC Jake Peetz (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Daronte Jones (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD