Mississippi State at Georgia - 2024 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Georgia Bulldogs(#10)

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Georgia -34 (53.5) (-10000) Open: -34.5
Georgia 41 - Mississippi State: 31 (SEC)

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UGA 2nd straight Home Game
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Georgia -33.5 (SP+ UGA -28)
Projected Score: MSST: 10 - UGA: 44 (54)
UGA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 313 miles, 1 hrs behind

Bulldogs (11 - 3) (4 - 10 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (94 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
UGA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Georgia's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Georgia vs Clemson	-10.5	49.0	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Georgia vs Tennessee Tech	-54.5	62.5	W 48 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/14	Georgia at Kentucky	-24.0	45.0	W 13 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Georgia at Alabama	-2.0	50.0	L 34 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Georgia vs Auburn	-21.0	50.0	W 31 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/12	Georgia vs Mississippi State	-34.0	53.5	W 41 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/19	Georgia at Texas	+4.0	57.0	W 30 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Georgia vs Florida	-14.5	52.5	W 34 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/9	Georgia at Ole Miss	-1.5	54.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/16	Georgia vs Tennessee	-8.5	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Georgia vs Massachusetts	-42.5	55.5	W 59 - 21	O	N
Fri 11/29	Georgia vs Georgia Tech	-17.5	48.5	W 44 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/7	Georgia vs Texas	+2.5	50.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Georgia vs Notre Dame	+1.5	46.5	L 10 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
UGA	#37 (.24)	47% (25)	31.5	46% (46)	2.91 (91)	121	47% (16)	264	4.68 (12)	#49 (.14)	39% (32)	20.6	39% (34)	38% (37)	3.22 (19)	51.1	1.3	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
UGA	#37 (.24)	47% (25)		46% (46)	2.91 (91)	121	47% (16)	264	4.68 (12)	#49 (.14)	39% (32)		39% (34)	38% (37)	3.22 (19)	51.1	1.3	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
UGA Defense	14	20.6	21.2	38.8%	3.22	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	39%	38%	17%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
UGA Offense	14	31.5	42.3	46.6%	4.68	1.3	21	385	121	264	4.3	43%	57%	46%	47%	15%	.24

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Georgia	14	27:43	20.6	41%	75%	5.4	51.1	1.3	1.4	6.1	2.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
UGA Defense	14	49% (48)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.1 (59)	2.81 (39)	80% (107)	12% (21)	0.96 (53)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)
UGA Offense	14	43% (112)	46% (46)	28.1	120.6	4.3	24 (45)	.12 (76)	2.91 (91)	73% (67)	9% (47)	0.88 (109)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
UGA Defense	14	51% (89)	38% (37)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.17 (37)	1.6 (59)	35% (27)	26% (13)	.23 (36)	5% (110)	2.1 (86)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
UGA Offense	14	57% (22)	47% (16)	22.6	34.4	264.3	7.7	11.7	28 (15)	13 (103)	.34 (31)	1.5 (111)	28% (15)	36% (19)	.39 (47)	7% (95)	1.8 (127)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34 Georgia: 26.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1 Georgia: 24.3

Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 26.03 #7
Georgia's Offense Rating: 26.08 #13
Georgia's Defense Rating: 4.43 #25
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #3
Georgia's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Georgia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #10
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Georgia 44
Mississippi State 10

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia 35
Mississippi State 16

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Georgia 35
Mississippi State 22

Total Points: 57

Georgia Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 20.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Georgia's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Mississippi State	21	Georgia	41	Georgia -9.5	Georgia	56.5	Over
2024	10/12	Georgia	41	Mississippi State	31	Georgia -34	Mississippi State	53.5	Over
2022	11/12	Mississippi State	19	Georgia	45	Georgia -16.5	Georgia	53.0	Over
2020	11/21	Georgia	31	Mississippi State	24	Georgia -25.5	Mississippi State	44.5	Over
2017	09/23	Georgia	31	Mississippi State	3	Georgia -2.5	Georgia	50.0	Under
2011	10/01	Georgia	24	Mississippi State	10
2010	09/25	Mississippi State	24	Georgia	12
2006	10/21	Georgia	27	Mississippi State	24
2005	09/24	Mississippi State	10	Georgia	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Georgia	8	3	4 Overs
Mississippi State	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	3 - 6	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1

(#101) MSST at (#7) UGA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	UGA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#101	#7
SP+SP+	#88	#6
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#19
OffenseOff	#108	#32
DefenseDef	#135	#22
Spec TeamsST	#56	#59
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#26	#3

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Georgia Notes(11/30) Mauled by GT. Beck/Refs great comeback. D bad
(11/24) Def all 226 yds, 5.7 ypc to UMass? With GT next?
(11/18) Beck torched Tenn, TE's weapons, Death star Def
(11/15) RB Etienne out for Tenn game
(11/13) Beck awful, Rgame worse, Def torched (Ole Miss)
(10/19) DL bullied Tx. Beck/Rgame meh but enough
(10/19) Bama gm looks like anomaly, still class of SEC
(10/12) Pass Def a massive issue. Rgame meh, Beck great
(9/16) Star OG Ratledge out until at least 11/2 vs UF
(9/15) 3.4 ypc, allowed 45/170 @ UK. WR/playmakers?
(8/31) Mauled Clemson, Def great, Off good w/o Etienne
(7/30) Only 4 road games, only Tenn test @ home.
Georgia Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UGA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#22
SuccessSuc	#109	#32
ExplosiveExp	#6	#64
PPAPPA	#78	#49
PowerPwr	#100	#25
SP+SP+	#82	#9
Pts POPPO	#86	#19
HavocHav	#127	#57

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UGA Def
Run GameRun	#106	#12
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#34
Run ExplRExp	#28	#53
PPAExp	#92	#59
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#59
TackleTak	-	#14

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	UGA Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#58
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#37
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#59
PPAExp	#76	#37
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#108	#51
F7 HavocF7	#122	#21
DB HavocDB	#116	#110

Georgia on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#32	#135
SuccessSuc	#25	#133
ExplosiveExp	#97	#18
PPAPPA	#37	#130
PowerPwr	#13	#130
SP+SP+	#10	#98
Pts POPPO	#12	#113
HavocHav	#60	#134

Georgia Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#24	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#46	#108
Run ExplRExp	#109	#13
PPAExp	#76	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#32	-
OL YdsOLY	#91	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#104	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Georgia Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	UGA Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	#16	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#48
PPAExp	#31	#134
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#12	#136
F7 HavocF7	#47	#133
DB HavocDB	#95	#123

Program Comparison
UGA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Down to Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sanford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 80°

Rematch from Week 7
Georgia -34.0 (53.5)
Georgia won vs Mississippi State this year (41-31)

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Mississippi State last year (41-31)
Georgia beat Mississippi State in 2022 (45-19)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Barnes (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3

UGA's OC Mike Bobo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Beck	290	448	65%	3485	28	12	7.8
Gunner Stockton	45	64	70%	440	1	1	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Frazier	133	671	8	5.0	40
Trevor Etienne (Tr)	122	609	9	5.0	48
Dillon Bell	9	107	1	11.9	33
Branson Robinson	25	73	3	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Arian Smith	48	817	4	17.0	67
Dominic Lovett	59	607	6	10.3	38
Dillon Bell	43	466	4	10.8	67
Lawson Luckie	24	348	3	14.5	37

View Georgia's Full Roster

UGA's DC Glenn Schumann (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malaki Starks	77	4	0	0	3
C.J. Allen	76	3	0	5	4
Dan Jackson	64	2	0	0	3
Jalon Walker	61	11	7	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chaz Chambliss	41	10	7	2	0
Jalon Walker	61	11	7	7	2
Mykel Williams	21	9	5	3	1
Damon Wilson Jr.	22	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
C.J. Allen	76	3	5	4
Julian Humphrey	10	0	0	4
Malaki Starks	77	4	0	3