Mississippi State at Georgia - 2024 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Georgia Bulldogs(#5)Georgia logo
Saturday, October 12th 2024 (4:15 PM EDT)
Georgia -34 (53.5) (-10000)  Open: -34.5
Georgia 41 - Mississippi State: 31  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
UGA 2nd straight Home Game
MSST coming off BYE
Our Line: Georgia -33.5   (SP+ UGA -28)

Projected Score: MSST: 11 - UGA: 44 (55)
UGA Win prob: 100% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 313 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (11 - 3) (4 - 10 - 0)
Coach Kirby Smart (94 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (42 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.561.5W 56 - 7OY
Sat 9/7 Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.557.5L 23 - 30UN
Sat 9/14 Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.556.5L 17 - 41ON
Sat 9/21 Mississippi State vs Florida+6.558.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/28 Mississippi State at Texas+37.058.5L 13 - 35UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Mississippi State at Georgia+34.053.5L 31 - 41OY
Sat 10/19 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.055.5L 24 - 34OY
Sat 10/26 Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.555.0L 25 - 58ON
Sat 11/2 Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.559.5W 45 - 20OY
Sat 11/9 Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.561.5L 14 - 33UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.558.0L 20 - 39ON
Fri 11/29 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.563.5L 14 - 26UY

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Georgia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Georgia vs Clemson-10.549.0W 34 - 3UY
Sat 9/7 Georgia vs Tennessee Tech-54.562.5W 48 - 3UN
Sat 9/14 Georgia at Kentucky-24.045.0W 13 - 12UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Georgia at Alabama-2.050.0L 34 - 41ON
Sat 10/5 Georgia vs Auburn-21.050.0W 31 - 13UN
Sat 10/12 Georgia vs Mississippi State-34.053.5W 41 - 31ON
Sat 10/19 Georgia at Texas+4.057.0W 30 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Georgia vs Florida-14.552.5W 34 - 20ON
Sat 11/9 Georgia at Ole Miss-1.554.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 11/16 Georgia vs Tennessee-8.547.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/23 Georgia vs Massachusetts-42.555.5W 59 - 21ON
Fri 11/29 Georgia vs Georgia Tech-17.548.5W 44 - 42ON
Sat 12/7 Georgia vs Texas+2.550.5W 22 - 19UY
Thu 1/2 Georgia vs Notre Dame+1.546.5L 10 - 23UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)25.840% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)34.147% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)31.546% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)20.639% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
UGA#37 (.24)47% (25)46% (46)2.91 (91)12147% (16)2644.68 (12)#49 (.14)39% (32)39% (34)38% (37)3.22 (19)51.11.31.4



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1225.81939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
UGA Defense1420.621.238.8%3.221.4 - - - - - 49%51%39%38%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1234.13350.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
UGA Offense1431.542.346.6%4.681.3213851212644.343%57%46%47%15%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Georgia1427:4320.641%75%5.451.11.31.46.12.6029.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
UGA Defense1449% (48)39% (34) - - - - .1 (59)2.81 (39)80% (107)12% (21)0.96 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
UGA Offense1443% (112)46% (46)28.1120.64.324 (45).12 (76)2.91 (91)73% (67)9% (47)0.88 (109)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
UGA Defense1451% (89)38% (37) - - - - - - 8 (93).17 (37)1.6 (59)35% (27)26% (13).23 (36)5% (110)2.1 (86)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
UGA Offense1457% (22)47% (16)22.634.4264.37.711.728 (15)13 (103).34 (31)1.5 (111)28% (15)36% (19).39 (47)7% (95)1.8 (127)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -10.34   Georgia: 26.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -4.1   Georgia: 24.3




Georgia's Power Ratings
Georgia's Power Rating: 26.03 #7
Georgia's Offense Rating: 26.08 #13
Georgia's Defense Rating: 4.43 #25
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #3
Georgia's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
Georgia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #6
Georgia's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #10
Georgia's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia 44
Mississippi State 11


Total Points: 55

Georgia Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.3
Defense: 20.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Georgia's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 4 - 10 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Georgia41Mississippi State31GeorgiaGeorgia -34Mississippi State53.5Over
202211/12Mississippi State19Georgia45GeorgiaGeorgia -16.5Georgia53.0Over
202011/21Georgia31Mississippi State24GeorgiaGeorgia -25.5Mississippi State44.5Over
201709/23Georgia31Mississippi State3GeorgiaGeorgia -2.5Georgia50.0Under
201110/01Georgia24Mississippi State10Georgia
201009/25Mississippi State24Georgia12Mississippi State
200610/21Georgia27Mississippi State24Georgia
200509/24Mississippi State10Georgia23Georgia
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia723 Overs
Mississippi State121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 21 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams2 - 63 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#101) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: -10.34 #101
Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #26
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Mississippi State has lost 4 straight
Mississippi State has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 5 (4 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Mississippi State Notes
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State offense is explosive (#41)
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Mississippi State offense is really bad (#33)
Mississippi State run game is really bad (#18)
Mississippi State pass game is really bad (#62)
Mississippi State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Mississippi State does not Sack the QB (#97)
Mississippi State has a bad defense (#57)
Mississippi State Does Not Stuff Runs (#66)
Mississippi State has a bad defensive line (#93)
Mississippi State has a bad red zone defense (#65)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUGAMSST
OverallOver#15#96
OffenseOff#28#86
DefenseDef#17#114
Special TeamsST#50#47
PassingPass#18#37
RushingRush#17#76
Run BlockRBLK#26#91
Pass BlockPBLK#12#92
Route RunningWR Rt#66#66
TacklingTkl#13#89
Run DefenseR Def#11#73
Pass Rush DefPRush#46#115
Coverage DefCov#46#112

Rematch from Week 7
Georgia -34.0 (53.5)
Georgia won vs Mississippi State this year (41-31)

Previous Matchups
Georgia beat Mississippi State last year (41-31)
Georgia beat Mississippi State in 2022 (45-19)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Sanford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | UGA
Depth Chart: MSST | UGA
Rosters: MSST | UGA
(#7) Georgia Info
Power Rating: 26.03 #7
Offense Rating: 26.08 #13
Defense Rating: 4.43 #25
Overall SP+ Rating: 24.3 #6
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.3 #10
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #9
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 73 #3
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.68 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Great in Scoring Position 3.22 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Georgia has won 1 straight
Georgia has won 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 0 (1 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Georgia Notes
(11/24) Def all 226 yds, 5.7 ypc to UMass? With GT next?
(11/18) Beck torched Tenn, TE's weapons, Death star Def
(11/15) RB Etienne out for Tenn game
(11/13) Beck awful, Rgame worse, Def torched (Ole Miss)
(10/19) DL bullied Tx. Beck/Rgame meh but enough
(10/19) Bama gm looks like anomaly, still class of SEC
(10/12) Pass Def a massive issue. Rgame meh, Beck great
(9/16) Star OG Ratledge out until at least 11/2 vs UF
(9/15) 3.4 ypc, allowed 45/170 @ UK. WR/playmakers?
(8/31) Mauled Clemson, Def great, Off good w/o Etienne

Georgia Highlights
Georgia is Undefeated at Home

Georgia offense is efficent (#20)
Georgia offense is good in red zone (#15)
Georgia Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Georgia defense is really good in red zone (#94)
Georgia Front 7 is disruptive (#93)

Georgia Deficiencies
Georgia throws a Lot of Interceptions (#23)
Georgia Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#55)


  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.14025655%18861177.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)7410869%974819.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davon Booth (Tr)15275955.043
Johnnie Daniels10854045.036
Keyvone Lee2914014.818
Xavier Gayten8115114.472
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.69844512.280
Jordan Mosley23405317.665
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)25391215.649
Mario Craver17368321.672

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123
Nic Mitchell803012
Branden Jennings565242
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zakari Tillman304412
Branden Jennings565242
Ty Cooper292110
Kalvin Dinkins21100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brice Pollock481007
Isaac Smith1272003
Stone Blanton (Tr)1244123

Georgia's OC Mike Bobo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Beck29044865%348528127.8
Gunner Stockton456470%440116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Frazier13367185.040
Trevor Etienne (Tr)12260995.048
Dillon Bell9107111.933
Branson Robinson257332.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Arian Smith48817417.067
Dominic Lovett59607610.338
Dillon Bell43466410.867
Lawson Luckie24348314.537

View Georgia's Full Roster
Georgia's DC Glenn Schumann
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malaki Starks774003
C.J. Allen763054
Dan Jackson642003
Jalon Walker6111772
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chaz Chambliss4110720
Jalon Walker6111772
Mykel Williams219531
Damon Wilson Jr.226340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
C.J. Allen763054
Julian Humphrey100004
Malaki Starks774003