Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State

Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (6:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -26.5 (61.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Mississippi State 56 - Eastern Kentucky: 7

Colonels (0 - 2) (0 - 2 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 4 - 44 (4 - 44 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Temp: 95.7° (41% Hum)
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ MSST -4)
MSST Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%

Bulldogs (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
EKY Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State	+26.5	61.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/7	Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky	+18.5	59.5	L 0 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Eastern Kentucky's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky	-26.5	61.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Mississippi State at Arizona State	+6.5	57.5	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/14	Mississippi State vs Toledo	-10.5	56.5	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/21	Mississippi State vs Florida	+6.5	58.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/28	Mississippi State at Texas	+37.0	58.5	L 13 - 35	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Mississippi State at Georgia	+34.0	53.5	L 31 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+21.0	55.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	+7.5	55.0	L 25 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/2	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-19.5	59.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Mississippi State at Tennessee	+26.5	61.5	L 14 - 33	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+9.5	58.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Fri 11/29	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+26.5	63.5	L 14 - 26	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
EKY		0%	3.5	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	43.5	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
EKY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
EKY Offense	2	3.5	3.5	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
EKY Defense	2	43.5	43.5	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Eastern Kentucky	2	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
EKY Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
EKY Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
EKY Offense	2	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
EKY Defense	2	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Eastern Kentucky's Power Ratings
Eastern Kentucky's Power Rating: NR
Eastern Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Eastern Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: -
Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Eastern Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Eastern Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Atlantic Sun Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Eastern Kentucky: Mississippi State: -4.72

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Eastern Kentucky: Mississippi State: -4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -4.72 #101
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.56 #100
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 21.21 #130
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #26
Mississippi State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Mississippi State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.1 #88
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #82
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #98

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Eastern Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 3.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 3.5
Defense: 43.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 43.5

Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 34
Eastern Kentucky 23

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 32
Eastern Kentucky 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 36
Eastern Kentucky 19

Total Points: 55

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	08/31	Mississippi State	56	Eastern Kentucky	7	Mississippi State -26.5	Mississippi State	61.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	1	1	1 Overs
Eastern Kentucky	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#NR) EKY at (#101) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	EKY	MSST
Power RatePwr	NR	#101
SP+SP+	NR	#88
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#131
OffenseOff	NR	#108
DefenseDef	NR	#135
Spec TeamsST	NR	#56
TalentTal	NR	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#26

Eastern Kentucky Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/17) QB Van Buren Jr left via portal (LSU)
(12/17) Signed QB Kromenhoek (FSU)
(11/29) 3rd down Defense worst in CFB > 48%
(11/29) Fought w/ Rebs, Def better but 3rd/4th bad
(11/13) QB Van Buren awful, Rgame OK, Run Def torched
(10/22) Def stop rate 38% (#131) last in P4 into wk 9
(10/19) Van Buren good (A&M) Def better, still fighting
(10/12) QB Van Buren torched UGA, Rgame & Def awful
(10/4) Def #132 Success rate, giving up 30+ every game
(9/24) QB Shapen out for the season (shoulder)
(9/17) Worst SEC team in 10/15 years not named Vandy
(9/11) OL/DL cannot compete in SEC this year.
Mississippi State Injury Report

Eastern Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	EKY Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	NR	#135
SuccessSuc	NR	#133
ExplosiveExp	NR	#18
PPAPPA	NR	#130
PowerPwr	NR	#130
SP+SP+	NR	#98
Pts POPPO	NR	#113
HavocHav	NR	#134

Eastern Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	EKY Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#108
Run ExplRExp	NR	#13
PPAExp	NR	#80
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#113
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#114
TackleTak	-	#103

Eastern Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	EKY Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#135
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#134
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#48
PPAExp	NR	#134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#136
F7 HavocF7	NR	#133
DB HavocDB	NR	#123

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	EKY Def
Perf GradePerf	#108	NR
SuccessSuc	#109	NR
ExplosiveExp	#6	NR
PPAPPA	#78	NR
PowerPwr	#100	NR
SP+SP+	#82	NR
Pts POPPO	#86	NR
HavocHav	#127	NR

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	EKY Def
Run GameRun	#106	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	NR
Run ExplRExp	#28	NR
PPAExp	#92	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#44	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	EKY Def
Pass GamePass	#45	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#18	NR
PPAExp	#76	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	NR
F7 HavocF7	#122	NR
DB HavocDB	#116	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

EKY 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 96°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State -26.5 (61.5)
Mississippi State won vs Eastern Kentucky this year (56-7)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Eastern Kentucky last year (56-7)

EKY's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Eastern Kentucky's Full Roster

EKY's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	PD
Sam Robertson	17	0
Jordon Thomas	9	1
Jacquez McGowan	8	1
Kyle Kelly	8	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS
Gabe Fletcher	1	1	1
Kaden Smith	3	1	0
Zach Russell	1	1	0
Brody Wells	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Jacquez McGowan	8	1
Kyle Kelly	8	1
Jordon Thomas	9	1

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Michael Van Buren Jr.	140	256	55%	1886	11	7	7.4
Blake Shapen (Tr)	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth (Tr)	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Keyvone Lee	29	140	1	4.8	18
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.	69	844	5	12.2	80
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Kelly Akharaiyi (Tr)	25	391	2	15.6	49
Mario Craver	17	368	3	21.6	72

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2
Ty Cooper	29	2	1	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins	2	1	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brice Pollock	48	1	0	0	7
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Stone Blanton (Tr)	124	4	1	2	3