Ole Miss at Mississippi State - 2021 Matchup Preview

(#6)Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Thursday, November 25th 2021 (7:30 PM EST)
Mississippi State -2.5 (65.0)
Ole Miss 31 - Mississippi State: 21 (SEC)

Rebels (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 7th straight game
MISS is playing their 9th straight game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ MISS -4.5)
Projected Score: MISS: 24 - MSST: 31 (55)
MSST Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MISS Travel: 76 miles

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Ole Miss vs Louisville	-9.0	74.5	W 43 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Ole Miss vs Austin Peay	-37.0	69.5	W 54 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/18	Ole Miss vs Tulane	-14.0	77.0	W 61 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Ole Miss at Alabama	+15.0	79.5	L 21 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/9	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-5.0	67.0	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/16	Ole Miss at Tennessee	-1.0	82.0	W 31 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Ole Miss vs LSU	-9.0	76.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Ole Miss at Auburn	+3.0	67.5	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Ole Miss vs Liberty	-7.5	66.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	+1.0	57.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-35.5	66.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Thu 11/25	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	+2.5	65.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 1/1	Ole Miss vs Baylor	-1.0	60.5	L 7 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	.27	46%	33.7	47%	3.22	218	44%	275	3.83	.19	46%	24.7	50%	42%	3.6	75.2	0.9	1.7
MSST	.24	50%	29.1	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	25.9	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	33.7	25.8	45.7%	3.83	0.9	26	492	218	275	4.8	54%	46%	47%	44%	15%	.27
MSST Defense	13	25.9	25.6	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	24.7	30	46.1%	3.6	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	50%	42%	16%	.19
MSST Offense	13	29.1	28.6	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	27:29	26	38%	63%	9	75.2	0.9	1.7	6.2	3	1	29.8
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	54%	47%	45.2	217.6	4.8	33	.3	3.22	68%	10%	1.22
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	51%	50%	-	-	-	-	.3	3.56	67%	10%	1.08
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	46%	44%	22	33	274.8	8.3	12.5	21	7	.25	1.6	32%	34%	.33	4%	2
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.09	1.3	29%	32%	.17	6%	1.7
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Ole Miss's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ole Miss's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #17
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #17
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: Mississippi State: 7.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 14.8 Mississippi State: 10.5

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 7.75 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

Ole Miss's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 31
Ole Miss 24

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 33
Ole Miss 21

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 28
Mississippi State 28

Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 25.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/28	Mississippi State	19	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -7.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Under
2024	11/29	Ole Miss	26	Mississippi State	14	Ole Miss -26.5	Mississippi State	63.5	Under
2023	11/23	Mississippi State	7	Ole Miss	17	Ole Miss -11	Mississippi State	56.0	Under
2022	11/24	Ole Miss	22	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -2.5	Mississippi State	63.0	Under
2021	11/25	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	65.0	Under
2020	11/28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	24	Ole Miss -10	Mississippi State	70.0	Under
2019	11/28	Mississippi State	21	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State -1	Push	59.0	Under
2018	11/22	Ole Miss	3	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -12.5	Mississippi State	61.0	Under
2017	11/23	Mississippi State	28	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State -14	Ole Miss	64.5	Under
2016	11/26	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	55	Ole Miss -8	Mississippi State	67.5	Over
2015	11/28	Mississippi State	27	Ole Miss	38	Ole Miss -2	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2014	11/29	Ole Miss	31	Mississippi State	17	Mississippi State -2.5	Ole Miss	51.5	Under
2013	11/28	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	10	Ole Miss -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/24	Ole Miss	41	Mississippi State	24
2011	11/26	Mississippi State	31	Ole Miss	3
2010	11/27	Ole Miss	23	Mississippi State	31
2009	11/28	Mississippi State	41	Ole Miss	27
2008	11/28	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	0
2007	11/23	Mississippi State	17	Ole Miss	14
2006	11/25	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	17
2005	11/26	Mississippi State	35	Ole Miss	14
2004	11/27	Ole Miss	20	Mississippi State	3
2003	11/27	Mississippi State	0	Ole Miss	31
2001	11/22	Mississippi State	36	Ole Miss	28
2000	11/22	Ole Miss	45	Mississippi State	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	11	7	1 Overs
Ole Miss	14	5	11 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 15	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#) MISS at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#65
OffenseOff	#51	#65
DefenseDef	#77	#64
Spec TeamsST	#58	#75
TalentTal	#27	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Ole Miss Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#30	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#41	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#77
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#36
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#119	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#84

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

MISS 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 59° - Wind: 9 mph
Rain: 0.008

Rematch from Week 13
Mississippi State -2.5 (65.0)
Ole Miss won at Mississippi State this year (31-21)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State last year (26-14)
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State in 2023 (17-7)
Mississippi State beat Ole Miss in 2022 (24-22)

MISS's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD