Mississippi State at Texas - 2026 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns

Saturday, October 31st 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium - Austin, TX (SEC)

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

TEX 3rd straight Home Game
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -20.5 (SP+ TEX -12)
Projected Score: MSST: 17 - TEX: 38 (55)
TEX Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
MSST Travel: 568 miles

Longhorns (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (46 - 20)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (39 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
TEX Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-25
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+7
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+12
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+17
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+15.5
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+20.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+9.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+8.5
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-28
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+20.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Texas's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Texas vs Texas State	-23
Sat 9/12	Texas vs Ohio State	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Texas vs UTSA	-24.5
Sat 9/26	Texas at Tennessee	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Texas at Oklahoma	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Texas vs Florida	-15.5
Sat 10/24	Texas vs Ole Miss	-2.5
Sat 10/31	Texas vs Mississippi State	-20.5
Sat 11/7	Texas at Missouri	-1
Sat 11/14	Texas at LSU	-1
Sat 11/21	Texas vs Arkansas	-20
Fri 11/27	Texas at Texas A&M	+4

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4
TEX	#66 (.18)	40% (96)	30.5	42% (83)	2.83 (87)	138	39% (100)	251	3.52 (88)	#39 (.1)	39% (44)	20.3	40% (45)	39% (42)	3.77 (75)	69.7	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TEX		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14
TEX Defense	13	20.3	17	39.4%	3.77	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	40%	39%	18%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22
TEX Offense	13	30.5	38.8	40.5%	3.52	0.7	19	389	138	251	4.2	47%	51%	42%	39%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29
Texas	13	28:29	19	39%	53%	8.3	69.7	0.7	1.8	6.3	3	2	31.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)
TEX Defense	13	44% (13)	40% (45)	-	-	-	-	.01 (19)	2.69 (30)	57% (4)	11% (20)	0.84 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)
TEX Offense	13	47% (91)	42% (83)	32.5	138	4.2	17 (88)	.08 (83)	2.83 (87)	63% (116)	10% (95)	0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)
TEX Defense	13	55% (129)	39% (42)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (12)	.2 (52)	1.5 (38)	33% (48)	28% (37)	.22 (38)	7% (38)	1.8 (21)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)
TEX Offense	13	51% (48)	39% (100)	19.8	32.3	250.7	7.8	12.6	28 (50)	7 (60)	.29 (50)	1.7 (11)	33% (99)	33% (38)	.43 (26)	6% (55)	2.2 (21)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.57 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.28 #40
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.71 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 904.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 13% #30
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.57 Texas: 24.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1 Texas: 16.2

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 24.895 #4
Texas's Offense Rating: 28.78 #4
Texas's Defense Rating: 0.41 #7
2026 Talent Rating: 1122.00 #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #8
Texas's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.2 #17
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas 38
Mississippi State 17

Projected Total Points: 55

Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Texas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Mississippi State	38	Texas	45	Texas -8.5	Mississippi State	48.5	Over
2024	09/28	Texas	35	Mississippi State	13	Texas -37	Mississippi State	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas	2	0	1 Overs
Mississippi State	0	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#59) MSST at (#4) TEX

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	TEX
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#59	#4
SP+SP+	#58	#17
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#34	#5
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#8

Mississippi State Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneven, hopeful on Off but 1-15 in SEC
(3/5) Rumor is OT Brandon Sneh is ineligible? Big loss
(2/2) DC Arnett back (HC in '23). Good DC hire
(2/2) QB Taylor is electric, pot star. Swann has exp
(2/2) RB looks avg. Fluff decent, not sure what else
(2/2) WR has Evans and some good parts. Decent unit
(2/2) OL lost 8, added 8 via portal (2 starters). Huge ?
(2/2) DL was awful LY, added some but not enough
(2/2) LBs have exp but none played well. Don't see it
(2/2) DBs return 2 good starters, added 2. Best Def unit
Mississippi State Injury Report

Texas Notes(2/17) Vibes: Biggest expectations of UT since 2005
(2/6) OL allowed pressure on 49% of drop backs LY
(2/2) OL bad LY, 3 Portal starters added. Good exp
(1/29) LB Biles + Simmons both top 10 pass rusher LY
(1/29) CB duo looks great, McDonald @ S underrated
(1/28) RBs much better w R Brown & H Smothers added
(1/28) Def has a great F7, DL is big, good & exp'd
(1/28) Firing DC Kwiatkowski for Muschamp is a choice
(1/28) QB Manning improved LY, can he jump to elite?
(1/28) WRs Coleman & Wingo w/ depth. Best in CFB?
Texas Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#44
ExplosiveExp	#45	#28
PPAPPA	#90	#39
PowerPwr	#40	#7
SP+SP+	#39	#18
Pts POPPO	#22	#75
HavocHav	#117	#24

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#45
Run ExplRExp	#68	#13
PPAExp	#71	#19
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#33
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	TEX Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#42
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#38
PPAExp	#93	#52
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#20
DB HavocDB	#81	#38

Texas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#96	#102
ExplosiveExp	#14	#71
PPAPPA	#66	#110
PowerPwr	#4	#74
SP+SP+	#30	#84
Pts POPPO	#88	#69
HavocHav	#76	#110

Texas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#124
Run ExplRExp	#79	#31
PPAExp	#83	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#87	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Texas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TEX Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#11	#124
PPAExp	#50	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#95	#121
DB HavocDB	#55	#69

Program Comparison
TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Mississippi State last year (45-38)
Texas beat Mississippi State in 2024 (35-13)

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Derion Gullette	38	2	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5

TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Arch Manning	248	404	61%	3163	26	7	7.8
MJ Morris (Tr)	35	60	58%	304	1	4	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Raleek Brown (Tr)	186	1141	4	6.1	88
Daylan Smothers	160	939	6	5.9	65
Arch Manning	92	399	10	4.3	60
James Simon	29	122	0	4.2	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Wingo	54	834	7	15.4	75
Cam Coleman (Tr)	57	725	5	12.7	46
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)	30	416	2	13.9	51
Emmett Mosley V	28	408	3	14.6	40

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Will Muschamp (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Jelani McDonald	80	4	0	1	3
Ty'Anthony Smith	59	6	1	1	1
Bo Mascoe (Tr)	48	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Simmons	43	16	12	15	2
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4
Brad Spence	21	6	3	2	0
Lance Jackson	16	2	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Graceson Littleton	46	3	0	0	6
Kade Phillips	22	2	0	0	6
Rasheem Biles (Tr)	100	17	5	4	4