Northern Illinois at Mississippi State

Northern Illinois at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 20th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS

Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (21 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)

MSST 3rd straight Home Game
NIU coming off BYE
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Mississippi State -14.5 (SP+ MSST -10)
Projected Score: NIU: 19 - MSST: 33 (51)
MSST Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NIU Travel: 586 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross	-12.5
Sat 9/6	Northern Illinois at Maryland	+10
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Northern Illinois at Mississippi State	+14.5
Sat 9/27	Northern Illinois vs San Diego State	-4
Sat 10/4	Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)	-3.5
Sat 10/11	Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan	-1.5
Sat 10/18	Northern Illinois at Ohio	+9
Sat 10/25	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	-14.5
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+12
Wed 11/12	Northern Illinois at Massachusetts	-9
Tue 11/18	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	-9.5
Fri 11/28	Northern Illinois vs Kent State	-18

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-13.5	57.5
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+11
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-25
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-14.5
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+13.5
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+23
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+21
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+24.5
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+10.5
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+23.5
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+14

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	#86 (.16)	42% (79)	24.5	44% (72)	3.25 (33)	204	40% (86)	179	3.39 (113)	#11 (.06)	38% (19)	18.5	41% (52)	35% (9)	3.08 (12)	42.8	1.2	1.1
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	13	24.5	20.7	42.1%	3.39	1.2	21	383	204	179	4.8	59%	41%	44%	40%	15%	.16
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	13	18.5	19.7	37.7%	3.08	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	41%	35%	17%	.06
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	13	33:20	21.5	42%	45%	4.2	42.8	1.2	1.1	5.4	2.5	1	30.4
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	13	59% (11)	44% (72)	42.8	204.2	4.8	22 (55)	.14 (66)	3.25 (33)	72% (83)	9% (60)	1 (54)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	13	49% (44)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.08 (45)	3.06 (79)	74% (73)	11% (53)	0.9 (33)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	13	41% (124)	40% (86)	16.5	28.5	179.1	6.3	10.8	16 (87)	8 (40)	.23 (84)	1.6 (58)	31% (68)	30% (89)	.17 (117)	5% (39)	1.9 (116)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	13	51% (93)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.04 (4)	1.5 (55)	36% (15)	25% (10)	.18 (16)	7% (37)	2 (67)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -10.53 #94
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 6.27 #115
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 16.80 #81
2025 Talent Rating: 554.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.0 #106
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #133
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 526.31
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -10.53 Mississippi State: 3.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -11.0 Mississippi State: -1.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 3.95 #53
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 19.39 #37
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #69
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 949.5
Average Power Five Talent: 858.21
Average FBS Talent: 681.87

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.7
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.7

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 33
Northern Illinois 19

Projected Total Points: 51

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	0	0	0 Overs
Northern Illinois	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#94) Northern Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -10.53 #94
Offense Rating: 6.27 #115
Defense Rating: 16.80 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.0 #106
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #133
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #61
Talent Rating: 554.00 #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.39 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Northern Illinois Notes
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
(5/5) OL rebuild, 1/5 back. 2 more w/ exp. Lost 5 Srs
(4/27) Staff high on Fr QB Brady Davidson, best croot
(3/26) RB rebuild, Johnson/Poe have exp, some depth
(3/26) Def good LY, replacing all. Only 2 portals, CBs
(3/26) Hammock good, but lost most exp in CFB

Northern Illinois Ratings Matchup Mississippi State

Power #94

#53

Off #115

#37

Def #81

#69

Talent #93

#46

SP+ #106

#71

SP+ Off #133

#60

SP+ Def #61

#72

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NIU | MSST
Depth Chart: NIU | MSST
Rosters: NIU | MSST

(#53) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.95 #53
Offense Rating: 19.39 #37
Defense Rating: 15.09 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72
Talent Rating: 798.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Mississippi State Notes
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
(3/18) OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
(3/18) Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?

Northern Illinois's OC Wesley Beschorner

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Proctor (Tr)	129	190	68%	1506	13	3	7.9
Josh Holst	65	111	59%	593	2	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Telly Johnson Jr.	103	480	4	4.7	38
Jackson Proctor (Tr)	55	352	4	6.4	75
Josh Holst	49	230	1	4.7	22
Jaylen Poe	36	190	3	5.3	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dane Pardridge	20	238	3	11.9	39
George Dimopoulos	6	57	0	9.5	14
Jake Appleget	4	45	0	11.3	20
La'Don Bryant	2	38	0	19.0	28

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

Northern Illinois's DC Nick Benedetto

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Quinton Urwiler	32	1	0	0	1
Jalonnie Williams	27	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1
Jalonnie Williams	27	4	1	2	0
Jake Gassaway	25	3	1	2	0
Pierce Oppong	19	3	1	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Finley	36	3	1	0	8
Ivan Davis	10	1	0	1	2
Roy Williams	38	7	7	1	1

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)	44	84	52%	502	3	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	112	834	13	7.4	59
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Markus Allen (Tr)	42	636	3	15.1	78
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Cam Thompson (Tr)	27	388	3	14.4	54
Seydou Traore	34	361	1	10.6	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)	8	5	5	2	0
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Will Whitson (Tr)	20	4	2	2	0
Raishein Thomas (Tr)	12	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayven Williams (Tr)	29	2	2	1	4
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3