Northern Illinois at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo   Northern Illinois Huskies at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Mississippi State logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (4:15 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -23.5 (48.5) (-2400)  Open: -21.5
Mississippi State 38 - Northern Illinois: 10

 
Huskies (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Thomas Hammock (31 - 38)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
MSST 3rd straight Home Game
NIU coming off BYE
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Mississippi State -28.5  (SP+ MSST -21)

Projected Score: NIU: 11 - MSST: 39 (50)
MSST Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
NIU Travel: 586 miles
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Northern Illinois's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Northern Illinois vs Holy Cross-13.548.5W 19 - 17UN
Fri 9/5 Northern Illinois at Maryland+17.044.5L 9 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Northern Illinois at Mississippi State+23.548.5L 10 - 38UN
Sat 9/27 Northern Illinois vs San Diego State+1.541.5L 3 - 6UN
Sat 10/4 Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH)+4.538.5L 14 - 25ON
Sat 10/11 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan-1.548.5L 10 - 16UN
Sat 10/18 Northern Illinois at Ohio+10.541.5L 21 - 48ON
Sat 10/25 Northern Illinois vs Ball State-6.541.5W 21 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/5 Northern Illinois at Toledo+14.542.5L 3 - 42ON
Wed 11/12 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts-8.543.5W 45 - 3OY
Tue 11/18 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+7.039.5L 19 - 35ON
Fri 11/28 Northern Illinois vs Kent State-5.045.0L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)17.144% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)24.341% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1317.116.342.1%3.391.2213832041794.859%41%44%40%15%.16
MSST Defense1230.227.950.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1324.327.837.7%3.081.1 - - - - - 49%51%41%35%17%.06
MSST Offense1230.433.939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1333:2021.542%45%4.242.81.21.15.42.5130.4
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1359% (11)44% (72)42.8204.24.822 (55).14 (66)3.25 (33)72% (83)9% (60)1 (54)
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1349% (44)41% (52) - - - - .08 (45)3.06 (79)74% (73)11% (53)0.9 (33)
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1341% (124)40% (86)16.528.5179.16.310.816 (87)8 (40).23 (84)1.6 (58)31% (68)30% (89).17 (117)5% (39)1.9 (116)
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1351% (93)35% (9) - - - - - - 9 (76).04 (4)1.5 (55)36% (15)25% (10).18 (16)7% (37)2 (67)
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -20.21  #131
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 1.81  #131
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 22.02  #122
2025 Talent Rating: 526.00  #113
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Northern Illinois's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Northern Illinois's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7  #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0  #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #74

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 500.89
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -20.21   Mississippi State: 10.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -16.7   Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.25  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 39
Northern Illinois 11


Projected Total Points: 50
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Mississippi State38Northern Illinois10Mississippi State -23.5Mississippi State48.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State110 Overs
Northern Illinois001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#131) NIU at (#38) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNIUMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #131 #38
SP+SP+ #128 #58
Perf GradeGrade #116 #105
OffenseOff #117 #84
DefenseDef #105 #119
Spec TeamsST #88 #77
TalentTal #113 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #27
Northern Illinois Notes
(11/20) QB play abysmal, Rush Def mauled vs WMU
(11/5) Last MAC year, no bowl. No Offense. Grim outlook
(10/31) Off is worst in CFB, QBs awful, RB Johnson OK
(10/31) DL good, Def good but Off #'s are just ass
(10/19) Lost 6 straight, worst Off Success #'s in all CFB
(10/19) Program is regressing fast. OC Beschorner must go
(9/29) QB Holst benched, QB2 Davidson immediately picked
(9/25) Off poss worst in CFB, have no QB, rush Off worse
(8/30) Slog W over Holy Cross. 3.7 ypc, 4.5 ypp. Woof
(5/5) Portal QB Proctor (Dart) exciting, joins in summer
(5/5) QB1 Holst won spring, started 3 games LY
(5/5) WR Bryant, Pardridge and Givens top 3 spring
Northern Illinois Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Northern Illinois on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #117 #119
SuccessSuc #79 #133
ExplosiveExp #96 #18
PPAPPA #86 #130
PowerPwr #131 #44
SP+SP+ #135 #84
Pts POPPO #113 #113
HavocHav #44 #134
Northern Illinois Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #64 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #72 #108
Run ExplRExp #54 #13
PPAExp #66 #80
Run BlockR Blk #79 -
OL YdsOLY #33 #113
Stuff RateStuff #14 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Northern Illinois Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
NIU OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #136 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #86 #134
Pass ExplPExl #58 #48
PPAExp #84 #134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #114 #132
F7 HavocF7 #60 #133
DB HavocDB #39 #123
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffNIU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #105
SuccessSuc #109 #19
ExplosiveExp #6 #37
PPAPPA #78 #11
PowerPwr #24 #122
SP+SP+ #39 #74
Pts POPPO #86 #12
HavocHav #127 #48
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #68 #108
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #52
Run ExplRExp #28 #33
PPAExp #92 #45
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #79
Stuff RateStuff #44 #104
TackleTak -  #9
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #43 #94
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #9
Pass ExplPExl #18 #55
PPAExp #76 #4
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #100
F7 HavocF7 #122 #53
DB HavocDB #116 #37
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Mississippi State -23.5 (48.5)
Mississippi State won vs Northern Illinois this year (38-10)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Northern Illinois last year (38-10)

  
NIU's OC Wesley Beschorner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Josh Holst7813060%689435.3
Brady Davidson408746%384334.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Chavon Wright19687554.545
Telly Johnson Jr.12469045.680
Jalen Macon4521654.836
Lazaro Rogers3318915.776
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
DeAree Rogers46506311.050
Gary Givens III12145112.131
Rickey Taylor Jr.9134114.941
Telly Johnson Jr.169706.117

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Nick Benedetto (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jasper Beeler741102
Jacob Finley571007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Filip Maciorowski766302
Jay'Shon Thomas193250
Roy Williams3332110
Quinton Urwiler1278221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Finley571007
Donte Harrison302005
Dev'ion Reynolds130003

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014