NC State at Mississippi State - 2021 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 11th 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
NC State -1.5 (55.0)
Mississippi State 24 - NC State: 10

Wolfpack (9 - 3) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (57 - 47)
Avg Score : 33 - 20 (29 - 24 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ NCST -5.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 30 - MSST: 25 (55)
NCST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
NCST Travel: 595 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (29 - 26 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	NC State vs South Florida	-20.0	58.0	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	NC State at Mississippi State	-1.5	55.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/18	NC State vs Furman	-27.5	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/25	NC State vs Clemson	+10.5	46.5	W 27 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/2	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-18.5	56.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	NC State at Boston College	-3.0	51.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	NC State at Miami	-3.5	54.5	L 30 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/30	NC State vs Louisville	-6.0	57.0	W 28 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/6	NC State at Florida State	-3.0	55.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	NC State at Wake Forest	+1.0	65.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/20	NC State vs Syracuse	-11.0	49.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Fri 11/26	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5	62.0	W 34 - 30	O	N
Tue 12/28	NC State vs UCLA	-2.0	60.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.24	41%	33.1	42%	3.28	126	41%	288	4.2	.08	34%	19.7	35%	34%	3.6	64.5	0.9	1.4
MSST	.24	50%	29.1	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	25.9	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	12	33.1	28.6	41.3%	4.2	0.9	21	415	126	288	4.1	40%	59%	42%	41%	14%	.24
MSST Defense	13	25.9	25.6	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	12	19.7	24.2	33.8%	3.6	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	55%	35%	34%	19%	.08
MSST Offense	13	29.1	28.6	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	12	31:15	21.3	40%	42%	7.4	64.5	0.9	1.4	6.6	2.8	4	30.2
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	12	40%	42%	31	126.2	4.1	11	.11	3.28	81%	8%	0.94
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	12	44%	35%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.79	50%	11%	1.02
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	12	59%	41%	24	36.9	288.4	7.8	12	35	6	.35	1.7	33%	29%	.34	6%	2.3
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	12	55%	34%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.14	1.6	39%	26%	.21	8%	2.1
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2021 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.1 #14
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #14

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: Mississippi State: 7.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 16.1 Mississippi State: 10.5

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 7.75 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.2

NC State's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 30
Mississippi State 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 32
Mississippi State 25

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
NC State 29
Mississippi State 25

Total Points: 54

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 25.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	09/11	Mississippi State	24	NC State	10	NC State -1.5	Mississippi State	55.0	Under
2015	12/30	Mississippi State	51	NC State	28	Mississippi State -7	Mississippi State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	2	2	0 Overs
NC State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#) NCST at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#14	#34
Perf GradeGrade	#29	#65
OffenseOff	#41	#65
DefenseDef	#27	#64
Spec TeamsST	#55	#75
TalentTal	#34	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#101	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#19	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#48	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#27
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#14
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#119	#26
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#39
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#78
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 77°

Rematch from Week 2
NC State 1.5 (55.0)
Mississippi State won vs NC State this year (24-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NCST's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD