Mississippi State at Texas A&M - 2021 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (7:00 PM EDT)
Texas A&M -7 (45.5)
Mississippi State 26 - Texas A&M: 22 (SEC)

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TA&M is playing their 5th straight game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ TA&M -11)
Projected Score: MSST: 23 - TA&M: 32 (55)
TA&M Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 484 miles

Aggies (8 - 4) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jimbo Fisher (29 - 10)
Avg Score : 34 - 21 (31 - 15 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
TA&M Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Texas A&M's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas A&M vs Kent State	-29.5	67.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas A&M vs Colorado	-17.5	51.0	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/18	Texas A&M vs New Mexico	-30.5	49.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	-4.5	47.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/2	Texas A&M vs Mississippi State	-7.0	45.5	L 22 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/9	Texas A&M vs Alabama	+18.5	50.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Texas A&M at Missouri	-11.5	59.0	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas A&M vs South Carolina	-19.0	46.0	W 44 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Texas A&M vs Auburn	-4.5	49.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Texas A&M at Ole Miss	-1.0	57.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
Sat 11/20	Texas A&M vs Prairie View A&M	-41.5	50.0	W 52 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Texas A&M at LSU	-6.0	47.0	L 24 - 27	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.05	41%	30.4	47%	3	44	40%	296	2.9	.11	41%	30.2	42%	40%	3.18	60.2	2.3	1.5
TA&M	.28	49%	33.8	51%	3.17	205	48%	227	3.92	.13	39%	21	38%	40%	3.63	56.4	0.8	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TA&M		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	11	30.4	25.8	41.2%	2.9	2.3	19	340	44	296	2.4	23%	77%	47%	40%	20%	.05
TA&M Defense	10	21	15.3	39.3%	3.63	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	42%	58%	38%	40%	19%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	11	30.2	31	41.1%	3.18	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	40%	16%	.11
TA&M Offense	10	33.8	31.1	49.4%	3.92	0.8	23	432	205	227	5.5	53%	47%	51%	48%	13%	.28

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	11	30:54	18.8	32%	57%	6.5	60.2	2.3	1.5	5.5	2.3	2	27.6
Texas A&M	10	33:47	23.2	55%	38%	6.1	56.4	0.8	1.4	6.3	2.7	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	11	23%	47%	18.5	44.1	2.4	8	.06	3	74%	9%	0.76
TA&M Defense	10	42%	38%	-	-	-	-	.03	2.97	74%	11%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	11	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.81	65%	9%	0.85
TA&M Offense	10	53%	51%	37.4	205	5.5	21	.21	3.17	80%	7%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	11	77%	40%	33.9	50.6	296.3	5.9	8.7	17	18	.05	1.2	31%	28%	.23	11%	2.2
TA&M Defense	10	58%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.21	1.7	34%	26%	.22	7%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	11	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.18	1.7	30%	31%	.34	7%	2.3
TA&M Offense	10	47%	48%	18.9	30.1	226.7	7.5	12	20	4	.37	1.5	30%	39%	.39	6%	1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Texas A&M: 13.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5 Texas A&M: 21.1

Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 13.05 NR
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: NR
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas A&M's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas A&M's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.1 #6
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #35
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.9 #7

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Texas A&M 32
Mississippi State 23

Projected Total Points: 55

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.1
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Texas A&M's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/04	Texas A&M	31	Mississippi State	9	Texas A&M -17.5	Texas A&M	57.5	Under
2024	10/19	Mississippi State	24	Texas A&M	34	Texas A&M -21	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2023	11/11	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	10	Texas A&M -16.5	Texas A&M	40.5	Over
2022	10/01	Mississippi State	42	Texas A&M	24	Mississippi State -4	Mississippi State	45.0	Over
2021	10/02	Texas A&M	22	Mississippi State	26	Texas A&M -7	Mississippi State	45.5	Over
2020	10/17	Mississippi State	14	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M -4.5	Texas A&M	56.0	Under
2019	10/26	Texas A&M	49	Mississippi State	30	Texas A&M -10.5	Texas A&M	50.0	Over
2018	10/27	Mississippi State	28	Texas A&M	13	Mississippi State -1.5	Mississippi State	42.5	Under
2017	10/28	Texas A&M	14	Mississippi State	35	Mississippi State -3.5	Mississippi State	55.5	Under
2016	11/05	Mississippi State	35	Texas A&M	28	Texas A&M -13	Mississippi State	61.0	Over
2015	10/03	Texas A&M	30	Mississippi State	17	Texas A&M -6	Texas A&M	62.5	Under
2014	10/04	Mississippi State	48	Texas A&M	31	Texas A&M -1	Mississippi State	0
2013	11/09	Texas A&M	51	Mississippi State	41	Texas A&M -19	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/03	Mississippi State	13	Texas A&M	38
2000	12/30	Mississippi State	43	Texas A&M	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas A&M	8	5	6 Overs
Mississippi State	7	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 5	9 - 4	6 - 2	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 10	4 - 9	2 - 3	2 - 6

(#) MSST at (#) TA&M

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	TA&M
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#34	#6
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#22
OffenseOff	#65	#43
DefenseDef	#64	#21
Spec TeamsST	#75	#60
TalentTal	#29	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Texas A&M Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#21
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#7
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
Run GameRun	#119	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#22

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TA&M Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#46
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas A&M on Offense


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas A&M Run Game


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#9	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#28	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

Texas A&M Pass Game


CategoryCat	TA&M Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#108	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Texas A&M -7.0 (45.5)
Mississippi State won at Texas A&M this year (26-22)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State last year (31-9)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2024 (34-24)
Texas A&M beat Mississippi State in 2023 (51-10)

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TA&M's OC Darrell Dickey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Mike Elko (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD