Mississippi State at Southern Miss Game Matchup

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Friday, August 29th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -14.0 (0.0) (0) Open: -15.5
M. M. Roberts Stadium - Hattiesburg, MS

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (19 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Our Line: Mississippi State -7.5 (SP+ MSST -16.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 31 - USM: 24 (57)
MSST Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
MSST Travel: 150 miles

Golden Eagles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
USM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-14.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+11
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-25
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-14.5
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+13.5
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+23
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+20.5
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+24.5
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+10.5
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+23.5
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+14

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Southern Miss vs Mississippi State	+14.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	Southern Miss vs Jackson State	-15
Sat 9/13	Southern Miss vs App State	-8
Sat 9/20	Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech	-5
Sat 9/27	Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State	-13
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Southern Miss at Georgia Southern	+7.5
Sat 10/18	Southern Miss at Louisiana	+4.5
Sat 10/25	Southern Miss vs UL Monroe	-9
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Southern Miss at Arkansas State	+0
Sat 11/15	Southern Miss vs Texas State	+1.5
Sat 11/22	Southern Miss at South Alabama	+8.5
Sat 11/29	Southern Miss vs Troy	+2

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
USM	#132 ()	35% (130)	15.3	40% (108)	2.59 (126)	109	30% (133)	175	2.75 (133)	#125 (.3)	44% (97)	37.8	45% (89)	43% (93)	4.17 (104)	48.3	2.4	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	25.8	19	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17
USM Defense	12	37.8	33	44.1%	4.17	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	45%	43%	14%	.3

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	34.1	33	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32
USM Offense	12	15.3	19.5	34.7%	2.75	2.4	16	284	109	175	3.2	49%	51%	40%	30%	26%

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1
Southern Miss	12	27:22	15.5	25%	44%	6	48.3	2.4	0.8	5.4	1.7	2	26.5

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)
USM Defense	12	55% (116)	45% (89)	-	-	-	-	.27 (129)	3.22 (101)	71% (54)	10% (80)	1.21 (131)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)
USM Offense	12	49% (79)	40% (108)	34.2	109	3.2	13 (105)	.06 (103)	2.59 (126)	61% (124)	18% (133)	1 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)
USM Defense	12	45% (20)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.35 (114)	1.7 (114)	31% (77)	35% (114)	.51 (124)	5% (113)	2.2 (116)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)
USM Offense	12	51% (55)	30% (133)	13.8	26.5	174.9	6.6	12.6	7 (130)	17 (127)	-.05 (134)	1.7 (30)	38% (130)	24% (125)	.15 (129)	8% (122)	2.1 (45)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.30 Southern Miss: -6.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -1.4 Southern Miss: -17.7

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -6.15 #66
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.31 #85
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 10.91 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 738.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #128
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 527
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 31
Southern Miss 24

Projected Total Points: 57

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/18	Mississippi State	41	Southern Miss	20	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -18.5	Mississippi State	47.5	Over
2019	09/07	Mississippi State	38	Southern Miss	15	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -16.5	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2015	09/05	Southern Miss	16	Mississippi State	34	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -13	Mississippi State	62.0	Under
2014	08/30	Mississippi State	49	Southern Miss	0	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -26	Mississippi State	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Southern Miss	0	0	2 Overs
Mississippi State	4	4	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	3 - 1	3 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 3

(#55) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.30 #55
Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72
Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Mississippi State Notes
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
(3/18) OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
(3/18) Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?

Mississippi State Ratings Matchup Southern Miss

Power #55

#66

Off #38

#85

Def #71

#44

Talent #48

#63

SP+ #71

#128

SP+ Off #60

#114

SP+ Def #72

#126

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (41-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | USM
Depth Chart: MSST | USM
Rosters: MSST | USM

(#66) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.15 #66
Offense Rating: 11.31 #85
Defense Rating: 10.91 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #128
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #126
Talent Rating: 738.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Southern Miss Notes
(3/24) QB Braxton (Marsh) v good, mobile. Fun QB
(3/24) RB rebuild. 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(3/24) WR top 2 back, meh LY. 7 portal adds
(3/24) OL awful LY, 4/5 back, 7 portal adds
(3/24) Def bad LY, complete rebuild. 17 portals, 11 DBs
(3/24) New HC Huff a good one, a steal for S. Miss
(3/24) 1/2 roster is new. CB Moten (Marsh) great add
(3/24) New OC Anderson former Utah St HC.

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)	44	84	52%	502	3	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	112	834	13	7.4	59
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Markus Allen (Tr)	42	636	3	15.1	78
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Cam Thompson (Tr)	27	388	3	14.4	54
Seydou Traore	34	361	1	10.6	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)	8	5	5	2	0
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Will Whitson (Tr)	20	4	2	2	0
Raishein Thomas (Tr)	12	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayven Williams (Tr)	29	2	2	1	4
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3

Southern Miss's OC Blake Anderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)	124	206	60%	1624	19	2	7.9
John White	17	31	55%	240	0	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braylon Braxton (Tr)	134	610	4	4.6	35
Matt Jones (Tr)	43	211	3	4.9	46
JQ Gray	32	106	0	3.3	19
Robert Briggs (Tr)	9	88	0	9.8	55

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Charles Montgomery	32	393	3	12.3	30
Carl Chester (Tr)	20	342	3	17.1	42
Grant Page (Tr)	33	281	2	8.5	35
Kyirin Heath	15	210	2	14.0	34

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

Southern Miss's DC Jason Semore

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ian Foster (Tr)	48	5	0	4
Chris Jones	46	3	1	1
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0
Josh Moten (Tr)	38	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brodarius Lewis	39	8	4	0	0
Jabari Ishmael (Tr)	22	3	2	5	1
JJ Hawkins	22	2	1	7	3
Ahmere Foster (Tr)	37	2	1	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josh Moten (Tr)	38	0	0	0	5
Ian Foster (Tr)	48	5	0	0	4
JJ Hawkins	22	2	1	7	3