Mississippi State at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -11.5 (59.5) (-440)  Open: -11.5 | 59.5
Mississippi State 34 - Southern Miss: 17

 
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Mississippi State -8  (SP+ MSST -9.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 32 - USM: 24 (57)
MSST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
MSST Travel: 150 miles
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.053.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#86 (.15)42% (73)30.545% (54)2.82 (92)16139% (99)2374.49 (19)#104 (.21)44% (103)29.248% (124)41% (60)3.64 (66)61.81.31.4
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1230.525.841.9%4.491.3223981612373.853%46%45%39%18%.15
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1229.23144.2%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%41%14%.21
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1228:4221.844%48%7.361.81.31.44.51.7028.8
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1253% (40)45% (54)42.3161.43.828 (16).12 (64)2.82 (92)71% (72)12% (125)0.97 (65)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1253% (105)48% (124) - - - - .16 (99)3.42 (135)74% (94)8% (120)0.89 (32)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1246% (91)39% (99)18.930.32377.812.519 (75)9 (60).2 (95)1.7 (16)34% (115)30% (70).35 (51)7% (94)2.3 (7)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1245% (31)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (6).28 (83)1.7 (114)29% (104)30% (74).33 (88)6% (64)2.2 (126)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.21  #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96  #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.21   Southern Miss: -2.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 3.8   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.16  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 32
Southern Miss 24


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 30
Southern Miss 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 30
Mississippi State 28

Total Points: 58
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Southern Miss17Mississippi State34Mississippi State -11.5Mississippi State59.5Under
202311/18Mississippi State41Southern Miss20Mississippi State -18.5Mississippi State47.5Over
201909/07Mississippi State38Southern Miss15Mississippi State -16.5Mississippi State51.0Over
201509/05Southern Miss16Mississippi State34Mississippi State -13Mississippi State62.0Under
201408/30Mississippi State49Southern Miss0Mississippi State -26Mississippi State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss002 Overs
Mississippi State552 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 23 - 23 - 00 - 2
Road Teams2 - 32 - 32 - 00 - 3

(#48) MSST at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTUSM
Power RatePwr #48 #85
SP+SP+ #58 #90
Perf GradeGrade #102 #36
OffenseOff #94 #76
DefenseDef #105 #10
Spec TeamsST #84 #40
TalentTal #40 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #56
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #10
SuccessSuc #73 #64
ExplosiveExp #43 #53
PPAPPA #86 #43
PowerPwr #34 #88
SP+SP+ #42 #102
Pts POPPO #19 #98
HavocHav #120 #32
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #74 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #73
Run ExplRExp #65 #99
PPAExp #64 #93
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #87
Stuff RateStuff #79 #74
TackleTak -  #31
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #54 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #64
Pass ExplPExl #16 #40
PPAExp #95 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #80 #33
F7 HavocF7 #125 #89
DB HavocDB #94 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #105
SuccessSuc #104 #103
ExplosiveExp #22 #60
PPAPPA #68 #104
PowerPwr #75 #67
SP+SP+ #67 #76
Pts POPPO #80 #66
HavocHav #91 #107
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #116 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #124
Run ExplRExp #79 #32
PPAExp #77 #99
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #135
Stuff RateStuff #71 #124
TackleTak -  #95
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #35 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #60
Pass ExplPExl #15 #114
PPAExp #57 #83
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #127
F7 HavocF7 #49 #120
DB HavocDB #121 #64
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 76° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State 11.5 (59.5)
Mississippi State won at Southern Miss this year (34-17)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (41-20)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor305555%388417.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)12863965.043
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor6439576.239
Xavier Gayten2414926.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)53948617.958
Anthony Evans III (Tr)63751411.957
Seydou Traore34361510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)19222011.749

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
Nic Mitchell725320
Brylan Lanier653102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell725320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Kalvin Dinkins253200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3000011
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
DeAgo Brumfeld331014

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127