Mississippi State at Auburn - 2021 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, November 13th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Auburn -6 (51.0)
Mississippi State 43 - Auburn: 34 (SEC)

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 2nd straight Road Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ AUB -1)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - AUB: 29 (53)
AUB Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MSST Travel: 200 miles

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bryan Harsin (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (26 - 16 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Auburn's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Auburn vs Akron	-37.5	56.5	W 60 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Auburn vs Alabama State	-49.5	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Auburn at Penn State	+4.0	53.0	L 20 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/25	Auburn vs Georgia State	-27.5	57.5	W 34 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/2	Auburn at LSU	+2.5	57.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.5	45.5	L 10 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/16	Auburn at Arkansas	+4.5	54.0	W 38 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Auburn vs Ole Miss	-3.0	67.5	W 31 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/6	Auburn at Texas A&M	+4.5	49.5	L 3 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/13	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.0	51.0	L 34 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/20	Auburn at South Carolina	-7.0	45.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/27	Auburn vs Alabama	+21.0	57.5	L 22 - 24	U	Y
Tue 12/28	Auburn vs Houston	-2.0	51.5	L 13 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.05	41%	30.4	47%	3	44	40%	296	2.9	.11	41%	30.2	42%	40%	3.18	60.2	2.3	1.5
AUB	.19	43%	26.8	47%	3.23	163	40%	220	3.52	.21	46%	20.7	47%	45%	3.66	50.5	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	11	30.4	25.8	41.2%	2.9	2.3	19	340	44	296	2.4	23%	77%	47%	40%	20%	.05
AUB Defense	11	20.7	16.4	45.8%	3.66	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	47%	45%	14%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	11	30.2	31	41.1%	3.18	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	40%	16%	.11
AUB Offense	11	26.8	26.4	43.5%	3.52	0.8	21	383	163	220	4.6	48%	52%	47%	40%	13%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	11	30:54	18.8	32%	57%	6.5	60.2	2.3	1.5	5.5	2.3	2	27.6
Auburn	11	28:44	20.7	45%	27%	5.8	50.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.4	1	27.6

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	11	23%	47%	18.5	44.1	2.4	8	.06	3	74%	9%	0.76
AUB Defense	11	52%	47%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.14	79%	9%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	11	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.81	65%	9%	0.85
AUB Offense	11	48%	47%	35.6	162.5	4.6	16	.2	3.23	70%	8%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	11	77%	40%	33.9	50.6	296.3	5.9	8.7	17	18	.05	1.2	31%	28%	.23	11%	2.2
AUB Defense	11	48%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.28	1.6	29%	35%	.5	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	11	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.18	1.7	30%	31%	.34	7%	2.3
AUB Offense	11	52%	40%	19.6	32.9	220.2	6.7	11.2	12	7	.18	1.5	32%	32%	.31	5%	1.9

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Auburn: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5 Auburn: 11.0

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 8 NR
Auburn's Offense Rating: NR
Auburn's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Auburn's 2021 Expected Record: -
Auburn's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #29
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #56
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 29
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 53

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.4

Auburn's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Auburn	27	Mississippi State	13	Auburn -6.5	Auburn	40.0	Push
2022	11/05	Mississippi State	39	Auburn	33	Mississippi State -12.5	Auburn	50.5	Over
2021	11/13	Auburn	34	Mississippi State	43	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	51.0	Over
2020	12/12	Mississippi State	10	Auburn	24	Auburn -5.5	Auburn	50.5	Under
2019	09/28	Auburn	56	Mississippi State	23	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	47.0	Over
2018	10/06	Mississippi State	23	Auburn	9	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	45.0	Under
2017	09/30	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	10	Auburn -7.5	Auburn	51.5	Over
2016	10/08	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	38	Mississippi State -1.5	Auburn	55.0	Under
2015	09/26	Auburn	9	Mississippi State	17	Auburn -3.5	Mississippi State	58.5	Under
2014	10/11	Mississippi State	38	Auburn	23	Auburn -3	Mississippi State	0
2013	09/14	Auburn	24	Mississippi State	20	Auburn -6	Mississippi State	0
2012	09/08	Mississippi State	28	Auburn	10
2011	09/10	Auburn	41	Mississippi State	34
2010	09/09	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	17
2009	09/12	Auburn	49	Mississippi State	24
2008	09/13	Mississippi State	2	Auburn	3
2007	09/15	Auburn	14	Mississippi State	19
2006	09/09	Mississippi State	0	Auburn	34
2005	09/10	Auburn	28	Mississippi State	0
2004	09/11	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	43
2003	10/18	Auburn	45	Mississippi State	13
2002	09/19	Mississippi State	14	Auburn	42
2001	10/06	Auburn	16	Mississippi State	14
2000	10/06	Mississippi State	17	Auburn	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	16	6	4 Overs
Mississippi State	8	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 10	5 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	10 - 14	6 - 5	1 - 2	5 - 3

(#) MSST at (#) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	AUB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#34	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#48
OffenseOff	#65	#74
DefenseDef	#64	#29
Spec TeamsST	#75	#22
TalentTal	#29	#14
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Auburn Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#29
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#17
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#119	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#50

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#32
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#74	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#39	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#97	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#49	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'21 Profile: Down to Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Auburn -6.0 (51.0)
Mississippi State won at Auburn this year (43-34)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Mississippi State in 2023 (27-13)

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

AUB's OC Mike Bobo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Derek Mason (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD