Mississippi State at Arkansas - 2023 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -6.5 (46.5) (-278) Open: -7.0 | 50.5
Mississippi State 7 - Arkansas: 3 (SEC)

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (15 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST coming off BYE
ARK is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Arkansas -7.5 (SP+ ARK -3)
Projected Score: MSST: 20 - ARK: 28 (48)
ARK Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MSST Travel: 355 miles

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (22 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	21.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	26.6	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	21.8	15	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09
ARK Defense	12	27.9	27.8	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	26.6	29.5	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17
ARK Offense	12	26.6	21.7	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49 Arkansas: 5.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4 Arkansas: 2.7

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 5.49 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.5

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas 28
Mississippi State 20

Total Points: 48

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Mississippi State	25	Arkansas	58	Arkansas	Arkansas -7.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2023	10/21	Arkansas	3	Mississippi State	7	Mississippi State	Arkansas -6.5	Mississippi State	46.5	Under
2022	10/08	Mississippi State	40	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -8	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2021	11/06	Arkansas	31	Mississippi State	28	Arkansas	Arkansas -4	Mississippi State	54.0	Over
2020	10/03	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	21	Arkansas	Mississippi State -16.5	Arkansas	68.0	Under
2019	11/02	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	54	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -7	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2018	11/17	Mississippi State	52	Arkansas	6	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -22.5	Mississippi State	49.0	Over
2017	11/18	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	56.0	Under
2016	11/19	Mississippi State	42	Arkansas	58	Arkansas	Mississippi State -1	Arkansas	57.5	Over
2015	11/21	Arkansas	50	Mississippi State	51	Mississippi State	Arkansas -3	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2014	11/01	Mississippi State	17	Arkansas	10	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State	24	Mississippi State	Mississippi State -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/17	Mississippi State	45	Arkansas	14	Mississippi State
2011	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	17	Arkansas
2010	11/20	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	38	Arkansas
2009	11/21	Arkansas	42	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas
2008	11/22	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	28	Mississippi State
2007	11/17	Arkansas	45	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas
2006	11/18	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	28	Arkansas
2005	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	10	Arkansas
2004	11/20	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas	24	Arkansas
2003	11/22	Arkansas	52	Mississippi State	6	Arkansas
2001	11/17	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas
2000	11/17	Mississippi State	10	Arkansas	17	Arkansas

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	14	5	7 Overs
Mississippi State	10	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 12	3 - 9	2 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	12 - 12	9 - 3	3 - 1	6 - 2

(#84) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Mississippi State has won 1 straight
Mississippi State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (1 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State offense is really bad (#33)
Mississippi State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#57)
Mississippi State run game is really bad (#18)
Mississippi State pass game is really bad (#62)
Mississippi State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Mississippi State has a bad red zone defense (#65)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	ARK	MSST
OverallOver	#52	#62
OffenseOff	#66	#75
DefenseDef	#50	#57
Special TeamsST	#43	#24
PassingPass	#55	#62
RushingRush	#71	#44
Run BlockRBLK	#42	#56
Pass BlockPBLK	#86	#42
Route RunningWR Rt	#52	#84
TacklingTkl	#17	#31
Run DefenseR Def	#77	#66
Pass Rush DefPRush	#40	#92
Coverage DefCov	#38	#41

Rematch from Week 8
Arkansas -6.5 (46.5)
Mississippi State won at Arkansas this year (7-3)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | ARK
Depth Chart: MSST | ARK
Rosters: MSST | ARK

(#47) Arkansas Info
Power Rating: 5.49 #47
Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00

Arkansas has lost 5 straight
Arkansas has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (0 - 6 - 0 vs Spread)

Arkansas Highlights
Arkansas does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#7)

Arkansas has a good pass defense (#82)
Arkansas Front 7 is disruptive (#51)

Arkansas Deficiencies
Arkansas Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Arkansas offense is really bad (#12)
Arkansas pass game is really bad (#13)

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3

Arkansas's OC Kenny Guiton

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

Arkansas's DC Travis Williams

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5