Mississippi State at Minnesota - 2026 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Huntington Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

MINN 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Minnesota -4.5 (SP+ MSST -2.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - MINN: 28 (52)
MINN Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 830 miles

Golden Gophers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (66 - 44)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (30 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.2 - 5.8 (#57)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-25
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+7
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+12
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+17
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+15.5
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+20.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+9.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+8.5
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-28
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+20.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Minnesota's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/3	Minnesota vs Eastern Illinois	-30
Sat 9/12	Minnesota vs Mississippi State	-4.5
Sat 9/19	Minnesota vs Akron	-22
Sat 9/26	Minnesota at Washington	+17.5
Sat 10/3	Minnesota vs Michigan	+10.5
Sat 10/10	Minnesota at Purdue	-7
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	Minnesota vs Iowa	+8
Sat 10/31	Minnesota at Indiana	+26
Sat 11/7	Minnesota vs UCLA	-5.5
Sat 11/14	Minnesota at Penn State	+13.5
Sat 11/21	Minnesota vs Northwestern	-5.5
Sat 11/28	Minnesota at Wisconsin	-4

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4
MINN	#94 (.13)	40% (101)	23	39% (110)	2.62 (123)	103	41% (77)	190	3.79 (60)	#97 (.2)	45% (113)	22.9	43% (82)	47% (124)	3.84 (84)	31	0.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14
MINN Defense	13	22.9	13	45.2%	3.84	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	43%	47%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22
MINN Offense	13	23	30.1	39.9%	3.79	0.7	17	293	103	190	3.6	41%	57%	39%	41%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29
Minnesota	13	29:23	17.1	40%	43%	3.8	31	0.7	1.2	7.1	3	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)
MINN Defense	13	46% (19)	43% (82)	-	-	-	-	.14 (92)	2.86 (63)	73% (80)	13% (6)	0.98 (83)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)
MINN Offense	13	41% (126)	39% (110)	28.8	103.5	3.6	15 (88)	.02 (116)	2.62 (123)	73% (61)	9% (44)	0.89 (105)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)
MINN Defense	13	53% (119)	47% (124)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (38)	.25 (73)	1.5 (35)	30% (102)	36% (129)	.42 (122)	5% (122)	2 (54)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)
MINN Offense	13	57% (11)	41% (77)	19.3	30.7	189.9	6.2	9.8	19 (61)	7 (34)	.22 (82)	1.4 (121)	33% (96)	28% (94)	.2 (111)	7% (114)	1.8 (126)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 4.57 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.28 #40
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.71 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 904.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 13% #30
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.57 Minnesota: 8.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1 Minnesota: 1.5

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 8.895 #33
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 17.09 #37
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 10.80 #34
2026 Talent Rating: 1048.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 12 #34
Minnesota's 2026 Expected Record: 6.2 - 5.8
Minnesota's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #70
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #94
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #33

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 28
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.1
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Minnesota's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	0	0	0 Overs
Mississippi State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#59) MSST at (#33) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#59	#33
SP+SP+	#58	#70
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#34	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#34

Mississippi State Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneven, hopeful on Off but 1-15 in SEC
(3/5) Rumor is OT Brandon Sneh is ineligible? Big loss
(2/2) DC Arnett back (HC in '23). Good DC hire
(2/2) QB Taylor is electric, pot star. Swann has exp
(2/2) RB looks avg. Fluff decent, not sure what else
(2/2) WR has Evans and some good parts. Decent unit
(2/2) OL lost 8, added 8 via portal (2 starters). Huge ?
(2/2) DL was awful LY, added some but not enough
(2/2) LBs have exp but none played well. Don't see it
(2/2) DBs return 2 good starters, added 2. Best Def unit
Mississippi State Injury Report

Minnesota Notes(2/17) Vibes: Fleck good but stalling? DC Collins shaky
(2/4) QB Lindsey has been good not great. Some depth
(2/4) RB Taylor back, hopefully healthy. Good depth
(2/4) WR 3 portals needed, decent unit, needs #1
(2/4) OL big issue LY, 3 return. Vital this unit improves
(2/4) DT light on exp but lots of options. DE Smith great
(2/4) LB should be good w 2 big portal adds. Depth
(2/4) DBs hit by Perich loss, one good CB & S. Unclear
(2/4) LY Def collapsed & Off was awful. Big year coming
Minnesota Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#113
ExplosiveExp	#45	#74
PPAPPA	#90	#97
PowerPwr	#40	#34
SP+SP+	#39	#33
Pts POPPO	#22	#84
HavocHav	#117	#29

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#82
Run ExplRExp	#68	#83
PPAExp	#71	#92
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#63
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#55
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#124
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#35
PPAExp	#93	#73
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#6
DB HavocDB	#81	#122

Minnesota on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#101	#102
ExplosiveExp	#99	#71
PPAPPA	#94	#110
PowerPwr	#37	#74
SP+SP+	#94	#84
Pts POPPO	#60	#69
HavocHav	#74	#110

Minnesota Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#110	#124
Run ExplRExp	#105	#31
PPAExp	#116	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#123	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Minnesota Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 41%
CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#124
PPAExp	#82	#91
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#44	#121
DB HavocDB	#114	#69

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Derion Gullette	38	2	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drake Lindsey	246	389	63%	2382	18	6	6.1
Michael Merdinger (Tr)	21	41	51%	350	1	0	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	143	670	4	4.7	71
TJ Thomas Jr. (Tr)	91	384	6	4.2	44
Grant Washington	21	132	0	6.3	16
Zion Steptoe (Tr)	7	65	0	9.3	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javon Tracy	37	454	6	12.3	45
Jalen Smith	28	419	4	15.0	78
Noah Jennings (Tr)	23	323	0	14.0	36
Zion Steptoe (Tr)	21	272	0	13.0	42

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Danny Collins (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maverick Baranowski	102	9	3	3	1
Andrew Marshall (Tr)	61	4	1	3	0
Kerry Brown	56	4	0	0	3
John Nestor	50	6	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Smith	38	18	13	7	3
Karter Menz	32	9	7	4	2
T.J. Bush	39	11	5	4	1
Jaxon Howard	29	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
John Nestor	50	6	0	0	6
Kerry Brown	56	4	0	0	3
Anthony Smith	38	18	13	7	3