Mississippi State at Missouri - 2025 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo   Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers  Missouri logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (7:45 PM EST)
Missouri -7.5 (50.5) (-250)  Open: -5.5 | 51.5
Missouri 49 - Mississippi State: 27  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -7.5  (SP+ MIZ -10)

Projected Score: MSST: 23 - MIZ: 31 (54)
MIZ Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 427 miles
Tigers (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (37 - 24)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#54)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Missouri vs Central Arkansas-38.552.5W 61 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Missouri vs Kansas-5.551.0W 42 - 31OY
Sat 9/13 Missouri vs Louisiana-27.547.5W 52 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 Missouri vs South Carolina-10.048.5W 29 - 20ON
Sat 9/27 Missouri vs Massachusetts-44.557.5W 42 - 6UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Missouri vs Alabama+3.550.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/18 Missouri at Auburn-1.543.5W 23 - 17UY
Sat 10/25 Missouri at Vanderbilt+3.052.5L 10 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Missouri vs Texas A&M+7.048.5L 17 - 38ON
Sat 11/15 Missouri vs Mississippi State-7.550.5W 49 - 27OY
Sat 11/22 Missouri at Oklahoma+4.542.5L 6 - 17UN
Sat 11/29 Missouri at Arkansas-4.554.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 12/27 Missouri vs Virginia-4.043.5L 7 - 13UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)30.247% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)18.942% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1230.425.839.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17
MIZ Defense1318.920.640.6%3.381.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1230.23150.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
MIZ Offense1330.239.544%3.910.7193611592024.353%47%47%41%11%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Missouri1330:2819.547%53%5.2460.71.251.9231
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)
MIZ Defense1353% (91)42% (57) - - - - .01 (18)2.75 (29)73% (64)12% (22)0.92 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
MIZ Offense1353% (48)47% (28)37.1158.74.325 (41).12 (73)3.04 (67)79% (26)8% (31)0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)
MIZ Defense1347% (47)39% (56) - - - - - - 6 (109).23 (65)1.6 (70)32% (61)27% (20).2 (27)6% (54)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
MIZ Offense1347% (85)41% (80)17.828.5202.27.111.412 (118)5 (6).26 (66)1.6 (69)30% (49)33% (52).39 (44)4% (10)2.1 (49)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 11.40  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19%  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 11.40   Missouri: 15.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 4.1   Missouri: 14.4




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.335  #39
Missouri's Offense Rating: 12.08  #73
Missouri's Defense Rating: 0.81  #12
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00  #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32  #21
Missouri's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Missouri's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4  #21
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #47
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 31
Mississippi State 23


Projected Total Points: 54
Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Missouri49Mississippi State27Missouri -7.5Missouri50.5Over
202411/23Mississippi State20Missouri39Missouri -9.5Missouri58.0Over
202012/19Mississippi State51Missouri32Missouri -1.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201511/05Missouri13Mississippi State31Mississippi State -7.5Mississippi State41.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri224 Overs
Mississippi State220 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 22 - 21 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 22 - 22 - 10 - 1

(#38) MSST at (#39) MIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTMIZ
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #38 #39
SP+SP+ #58 #21
Perf GradeGrade #105 #7
OffenseOff #84 #13
DefenseDef #119 #7
Spec TeamsST #77 #9
TalentTal #40 #38
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #21
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Missouri Notes
(12/28) 0-5 vs winning teams, 8 wins vs teams (30-67)
(12/21) Hired Chip Lindsey at OC (Mich). Awful hire
(11/27) HC Drinkwitz extended, makes almost 11 mil per
(11/21) QB Pribula will start vs OU
(11/16) Killed MSU, but QB3 Zollers ain't ready. Run Off++
(10/22) Starting Kicker inj, Fr R Meyer replacement
(10/10) OT Cayden Green returns for Bama game, big add
(9/21) Big W over SCar, Run Off good, Run Def great
(9/8) QB Pribula a good passer, a dynamic weapon
(9/8) RBs Hardy & Roberts are a great duo
(8/28) QB Horn looks done for the year (leg)
(7/20) DBs really good w/ Catalon + Hall portal adds
Missouri Injury Report
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffMIZ Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #7
SuccessSuc #109 #54
ExplosiveExp #6 #51
PPAPPA #78 #32
PowerPwr #24 #12
SP+SP+ #39 #10
Pts POPPO #86 #28
HavocHav #127 #32
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffMIZ Def
Run GameRun #68 #7
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #57
Run ExplRExp #28 #43
PPAExp #92 #18
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #29
Stuff RateStuff #44 #46
TackleTak -  #17
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffMIZ Def
Pass GamePass #43 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #56
Pass ExplPExl #18 #70
PPAExp #76 #65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #6
F7 HavocF7 #122 #22
DB HavocDB #116 #54
Missouri on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMIZ OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #13 #119
SuccessSuc #54 #133
ExplosiveExp #114 #18
PPAPPA #70 #130
PowerPwr #73 #44
SP+SP+ #47 #84
Pts POPPO #68 #113
HavocHav #9 #134
Missouri Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
MIZ OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #11 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #108
Run ExplRExp #100 #13
PPAExp #73 #80
Run BlockR Blk #10 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #113
Stuff RateStuff #25 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Missouri Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCatMIZ OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #69 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #80 #134
Pass ExplPExl #69 #48
PPAExp #66 #134
Pass Block/RushP Blk #7 #132
F7 HavocF7 #31 #133
DB HavocDB #10 #123
Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 12
Missouri -7.5 (50.5)
Missouri won vs Mississippi State this year (49-27)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Mississippi State last year (49-27)
Missouri beat Mississippi State in 2024 (39-20)

  
MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Matt Zollers478853%503425.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ahmad Hardy (Tr)2561649166.472
Jamal Roberts12475366.163
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Marquise Davis3420025.923
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. (Tr)66732111.150
Donovan Olugbode30401213.434
Marquis Johnson28345212.349
Joshua Manning29318211.034

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Trotter (Tr)8413271
Nicholas Rodriguez614207
Santana Banner (Tr)591003
Marvin Burks Jr.492001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.2299132
Zion Young42167142
Chris McClellan488662
Darris Smith1565112
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nicholas Rodriguez614207
Dreyden Norwood242005
Daylan Carnell417014