Mississippi State at Missouri - 2025 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers(#23)Missouri logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Faurot Field - Columbia, MO  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 40 - 12 (34 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#76)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
MSST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -12   (SP+ MIZ -11)

Projected Score: MSST: 24 - MIZ: 36 (59)
MIZ Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
MSST Travel: 427 miles
Tigers (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (37 - 24)
Avg Score : 52 - 16 (52 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 3 (#21)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 5) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-21.549.5
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+5.5
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+11
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+5.5
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+7
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.5
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+6

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Missouri's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Missouri vs Central Arkansas-38.552.5W 61 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Missouri vs Kansas-5.551.0W 42 - 31OY
Sat 9/13 Missouri vs Louisiana-27.547.5W 52 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 Missouri vs South Carolina-13.546.5
Sat 9/27 Missouri vs Massachusetts-50.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Missouri vs Alabama+2.5
Sat 10/18 Missouri at Auburn+2.5
Sat 10/25 Missouri at Vanderbilt-3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Missouri vs Texas A&M-3.5
Sat 11/15 Missouri vs Mississippi State-12
Sat 11/22 Missouri at Oklahoma+5
Sat 11/29 Missouri at Arkansas-6

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#26 (.36)50% (33)40.356% (18)3.14 (53)17944% (62)2634.94 (33)#32 (.02)38% (57)12.343% (87)32% (29)3.4 (65)84.70.72
MIZ#15 (.45)56% (11)51.760% (6)3.91 (6)30253% (24)2855.52 (12)#29 ()31% (15)15.732% (18)31% (26)3.86 (84)58.30.71
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)47% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)42% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense340.33449.7%4.940.721441179263550%50%56%44%15%.36
MIZ Defense315.715.731.2%3.861 - - - - - 44%55%32%31%26%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense312.31737.7%3.42 - - - - - 58%42%43%32%18%.02
MIZ Offense351.751.756.5%5.520.7285873022856.252%48%60%53%10%.45

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State323:052155%50%1084.70.7251.3034.5
Missouri337:4928.362%86%658.30.717.32.3129.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense350% (74)56% (18)36178.759 (17).26 (36)3.14 (53)57% (114)7% (32)0.95 (72)
MIZ Defense344% (31)32% (18) - - - - .07 (70)2.35 (34)38% (4)17% (4)1.21 (113)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense358% (119)43% (87) - - - - -.02 (41)3.03 (93)58% (32)9% (79)0.75 (25)
MIZ Offense352% (62)60% (6)49302.36.211 (8).42 (8)3.91 (6)88% (19)7% (40)1.08 (46)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense350% (64)44% (62)19.729.3262.7913.47 (23)2 (60).46 (33)1.8 (13)29% (59)38% (33).72 (16)8% (120)2.7 (4)
MIZ Defense355% (104)31% (26) - - - - - - 2 (56).01 (23)1.6 (81)31% (86)21% (28).23 (60)8% (22)2.2 (108)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense342% (18)32% (29) - - - - - - 4 (12).09 (34)1.5 (63)32% (84)21% (30).07 (27)9% (16)2 (66)
MIZ Offense348% (71)53% (24)24.331.3284.79.111.78 (18)1 (23).48 (28)1.5 (73)22% (12)47% (10).77 (13)3% (24)2.1 (57)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 20.59   Missouri: 26.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 8.7   Missouri: 19.5




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 26.755 #13
Missouri's Offense Rating: 26.82 #13
Missouri's Defense Rating: -2.19 #21
2025 Talent Rating: 856.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32 #21
Missouri's 2025 Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.5 #11
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #17
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 40.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 12.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 36
Mississippi State 24


Total Points: 59

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 51.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 51.7
Defense: 15.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.7

Missouri's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Mississippi State20Missouri39MissouriMissouri -9.5Missouri58.0Over
202012/19Mississippi State51Missouri32Mississippi StateMissouri -1.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201511/05Missouri13Mississippi State31Mississippi StateMississippi State -7.5Mississippi State41.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri113 Overs
Mississippi State220 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 21 - 20 - 01 - 2
Road Teams2 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0

(#28) Mississippi State Info
Power Rating: 20.59 #28
Offense Rating: 23.00 #26
Defense Rating: 2.41 #40
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.7 #45
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #48
Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19% #27
Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Good Offense Success Rate of 50%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.94 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.4 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Mississippi State has lost 7 straight
Mississippi State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Mississippi State Notes
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth

Mississippi State Highlights
Mississippi State is Undefeated vs Spread
Mississippi State in Undefeated

Mississippi State offense is good on 3rd downs
Mississippi State defense does not give up big plays (#13)
Mississippi State has a good pass defense (#29)
Mississippi State Secondary is very good (#16)
Mississippi State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Mississippi State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Mississippi State Deficiencies
Mississippi State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#133)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIZMSST
OverallOver#3#38
OffenseOff#3#46
DefenseDef#9#38
Special TeamsST#76#84
PassingPass#3#28
RushingRush#9#13
Run BlockRBLK#18#79
Pass BlockPBLK#7#46
Route RunningWR Rt#5#65
TacklingTkl#23#39
Run DefenseR Def#10#36
Pass Rush DefPRush#17#75
Coverage DefCov#22#20

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Mississippi State last year (39-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSST | MIZ
Depth Chart: MSST | MIZ
Rosters: MSST | MIZ
(#13) Missouri Info
Power Rating: 26.755 #13
Offense Rating: 26.82 #13
Defense Rating: -2.19 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 19.5 #11
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #17
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.8 #18
Talent Rating: 856.00 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 32 #21
Expected Record: 9.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 56%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 5.52 PPO
Great Run Success 60%
Good Pass Success 53%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 31%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.86 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Good Pass Def Success 31%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Missouri has lost 6 straight
Missouri has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 0 (3 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Missouri Notes
(9/8) RBs Hardy & Roberts are a great duo
(8/28) QB Horn looks done for the year (leg)
(7/20) DBs really good w/ Catalon + Hall portal adds
(6/3) Off portals @ QB, RB, WR, 2-3 OL proj starters
(6/3) OL 2/5 back. Looks decent w/ 6 portal adds.
(5/23) Mizzu was 6-1 in 1 score games LY (4-0 in '23)
(4/4) OG Cayden Green a top G via PFF
(3/18) RB, Hardy (ULM) 1,300 yds as Fr LY
(3/18) WRs rebuild. Coleman (MSU) great pickup
(3/18) Def v good LY and loaded TY. DL could be ?

Missouri Highlights
Missouri is Undefeated vs Spread
Missouri in Undefeated
Missouri is Undefeated at Home
Missouri is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Missouri has Really Good Running Game (#3)
Missouri offense is efficent (#11)
Missouri has a top Offensive Line (#6)
Missouri offense is good in red zone (#12)
Missouri offense is good on 3rd downs
Missouri does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#27)

Missouri has a really good defense (#15)
Missouri has a good run defense (#18)
Missouri has a good pass defense (#26)
Missouri Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#20)
Missouri Front 7 is disruptive (#4)
Missouri Secondary is very good (#22)
Missouri has a great TO Margin (#28)

Missouri Deficiencies
Missouri gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#110)


  
Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen558168%722628.9
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)2450%20005.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)3017045.725
Davon Booth2712614.716
Xavier Gayten450112.525
Johnnie Daniels94404.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)15278318.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)17210212.448
Jordan Mosley394131.375
Seydou Traore577115.455

View Mississippi State's Full Roster
Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Smith180001
Nic Mitchell180000
Derion Gullette (Tr)160000
Jahron Manning (Tr)140001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Deonte Anderson51100
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)51111
Joseph Head Jr.30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones90003
DeAgo Brumfeld81003
Isaac Smith180001

Missouri's OC Kirby Moore
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)688976%791718.9
Matt Zollers55100%631012.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ahmad Hardy (Tr)5746258.171
Jamal Roberts2922217.763
Marquise Davis2512324.917
Beau Pribula (Tr)257633.031
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kevin Coleman Jr. (Tr)24258110.850
Marquis Johnson9173219.249
Brett Norfleet118737.927
Joshua Manning881010.117

View Missouri's Full Roster
Missouri's DC Corey Batoon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Trotter (Tr)155000
Jalen Catalon (Tr)100000
Jeremiah Beasley90000
Nicholas Rodriguez82000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.63320
Zion Young73110
Darris Smith31130
Khalil Jacobs51110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dreyden Norwood61004
Caleb Flagg30002
Nicholas Deloach Jr.20001