Arizona State at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo (#12)Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -6.0 (58.5) (-275)  Open: -7.0 | 59.0
Mississippi State 24 - Arizona State: 20

 
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Mississippi State -0.5  (SP+ ASU -1)
Projected Score: ASU: 28 - MSST: 29 (57)
ASU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
ASU Travel: 1331 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.053.5

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#87 (.14)40% (101)25.843% (71)2.98 (61)17438% (108)1953.32 (109)#32 (.09)40% (48)24.540% (50)39% (45)3.32 (38)55.21.41.1
MSST#86 (.15)42% (73)30.545% (54)2.82 (92)16139% (99)2374.49 (19)#104 (.21)44% (103)29.248% (124)41% (60)3.64 (66)61.81.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)52% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)41% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1325.824.639.9%3.321.419369174195551%47%43%38%17%.14
MSST Defense1229.227.944.2%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%41%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1324.525.239.8%3.321.1 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%19%.09
MSST Offense1230.533.941.9%4.491.3223981612373.853%46%45%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1329:3019.433%63%6.955.21.41.16.22.5027.5
Mississippi State1228:4221.844%48%7.361.81.31.44.51.7028.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1351% (53)43% (71)35.2174.2516 (78).13 (63)2.98 (61)66% (104)10% (82)0.97 (66)
MSST Defense1253% (105)48% (124) - - - - .16 (99)3.42 (135)74% (94)8% (120)0.89 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1346% (24)40% (50) - - - - .01 (18)2.68 (27)71% (64)11% (26)0.9 (40)
MSST Offense1253% (40)45% (54)42.3161.43.828 (16).12 (64)2.82 (92)71% (72)12% (125)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1347% (88)38% (108)17.230.2194.86.511.317 (86)8 (20).23 (76)1.6 (43)32% (85)27% (98).26 (87)8% (119)1.9 (90)
MSST Defense1245% (31)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (6).28 (83)1.7 (114)29% (104)30% (74).33 (88)6% (64)2.2 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1353% (119)39% (45) - - - - - - 7 (55).17 (35)1.5 (47)33% (45)29% (65).22 (36)8% (13)2 (79)
MSST Offense1246% (91)39% (99)18.930.32377.812.519 (75)9 (60).2 (95)1.7 (16)34% (115)30% (70).35 (51)7% (94)2.3 (7)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 11.44  #38
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 6.90  #79
Arizona State's Defense Rating: -4.54  #17
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #71
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.6  #36

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 11.44   Mississippi State: 8.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 4.8   Mississippi State: 3.8




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.505  #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96  #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 29
Arizona State 28


Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Arizona State 40
Mississippi State 17

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 29
Arizona State 27

Total Points: 56
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Mississippi State24Arizona State20Arizona State -6.0Mississippi State58.5Under
202409/07Arizona State30Mississippi State23Arizona State -6.5Arizona State57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State110 Overs
Arizona State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#38) ASU at (#48) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUMSST
Power RatePwr #38 #48
SP+SP+ #53 #58
Perf GradeGrade #89 #102
OffenseOff #93 #94
DefenseDef #63 #105
Spec TeamsST #113 #84
TalentTal #27 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #27
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #93 #105
SuccessSuc #101 #103
ExplosiveExp #66 #60
PPAPPA #87 #104
PowerPwr #79 #67
SP+SP+ #71 #76
Pts POPPO #109 #66
HavocHav #107 #107
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #33 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #71 #124
Run ExplRExp #66 #32
PPAExp #63 #99
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #135
Stuff RateStuff #83 #124
TackleTak -  #95
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #96 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #108 #60
Pass ExplPExl #43 #114
PPAExp #76 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #127
F7 HavocF7 #82 #120
DB HavocDB #119 #64
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffASU Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #63
SuccessSuc #73 #48
ExplosiveExp #43 #52
PPAPPA #86 #32
PowerPwr #34 #17
SP+SP+ #42 #36
Pts POPPO #19 #38
HavocHav #120 #14
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffASU Def
Run GameRun #74 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #50
Run ExplRExp #65 #40
PPAExp #64 #18
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #27
Stuff RateStuff #79 #35
TackleTak -  #42
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #54 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #45
Pass ExplPExl #16 #47
PPAExp #95 #35
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #117
F7 HavocF7 #125 #26
DB HavocDB #94 #13
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 88°
Rematch from Week 2
Arizona State 6.0 (58.5)
Mississippi State won vs Arizona State this year (24-20)

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Mississippi State last year (30-23)

  
ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims7815052%886755.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims9345234.988
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain22378017.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio21303214.468

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Jordan Crook928212
Myles Rowser794013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly366622
Prince Dorbah188471
Clayton Smith197420
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren352017

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor305555%388417.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)12863965.043
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor6439576.239
Xavier Gayten2414926.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)53948617.958
Anthony Evans III (Tr)63751411.957
Seydou Traore34361510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)19222011.749

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
Nic Mitchell725320
Brylan Lanier653102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell725320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Kalvin Dinkins253200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3000011
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
DeAgo Brumfeld331014