Arizona State at Mississippi State Game Matchup

Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS

Sun Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (30 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 2.8 (#14)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)

Our Line: Arizona State -11 (SP+ ASU -13.5)
Projected Score: ASU: 35 - MSST: 24 (58)
ASU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
ASU Travel: 1331 miles, 2 hrs behind

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#124)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
ASU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Arizona State vs Northern Arizona	-38
Sat 9/6	Arizona State at Mississippi State	-11
Sat 9/13	Arizona State vs Texas State	-22
Sat 9/20	Arizona State at Baylor	-3
Fri 9/26	Arizona State vs TCU	-6
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Arizona State at Utah	-2
Sat 10/18	Arizona State vs Texas Tech	-5
Sat 10/25	Arizona State vs Houston	-16.5
Sat 11/1	Arizona State at Iowa State	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Arizona State vs West Virginia	-17.5
Sat 11/22	Arizona State at Colorado	-8
Sat 11/29	Arizona State vs Arizona	-19.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-14.0	0.0
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+11
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-25
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-14.5
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+13.5
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+23
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+20.5
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+24.5
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+10.5
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+23.5
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+14
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+14

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU	#13 (.31)	50% (8)	32.9	52% (6)	3.35 (19)	187	47% (21)	208	4.14 (48)	#36 (.12)	42% (79)	22.6	41% (49)	44% (106)	3.64 (51)	50.1	0.6	1.4
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	25.8	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	34.1	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ASU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Offense	14	32.9	30.3	49.8%	4.14	0.6	20	395	187	208	4.9	59%	41%	52%	47%	12%	.31
MSST Defense	12	34.1	34.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ASU Defense	14	22.6	20.7	42.4%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	41%	44%	16%	.12
MSST Offense	12	25.8	30.7	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona State	14	29:54	20.4	47%	53%	6	50.1	0.6	1.4	4	1.3	3	28.6
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Offense	14	59% (14)	52% (6)	38.1	187	4.9	28 (25)	.27 (12)	3.35 (19)	73% (76)	7% (18)	0.96 (71)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ASU Defense	14	45% (14)	41% (49)	-	-	-	-	.04 (27)	2.97 (61)	63% (19)	8% (116)	1 (76)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Offense	14	41% (120)	47% (21)	14.9	23.9	208.4	8.7	14	25 (31)	5 (6)	.39 (14)	1.6 (43)	27% (11)	38% (5)	.45 (21)	4% (16)	1.9 (115)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ASU Defense	14	54% (119)	44% (106)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (18)	.21 (57)	1.4 (18)	32% (65)	30% (68)	.14 (5)	8% (21)	1.9 (27)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 17.24 #16
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 24.57 #13
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 7.33 #27
2025 Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.2 #22
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #26
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #27

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 774.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 17.24 Mississippi State: 3.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 12.2 Mississippi State: -1.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 3.95 #55
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 944.88
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.3
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.7

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Arizona State 35
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 58

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Arizona State	30	Mississippi State	23	Arizona State	Arizona State -6.5	Arizona State	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	0	0	0 Overs
Arizona State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#16) Arizona State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 17.24 #16
Offense Rating: 24.57 #13
Defense Rating: 7.33 #27
Overall SP+ Rating: 12.2 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #27
Talent Rating: 828.00 #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Expected Record: 9.2 - 2.8

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 59%, Pass: 41%
Great Offense Success Rate of 50%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.14 PPO
Great Run Success 52%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Arizona State Notes
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
(5/2) TE Metayer a good reliable target, underrated
(3/20) RBs Udoh (Army) or K. Brown fill in for Skat?
(3/18) QB Leavitt a top QB in CFB, mobile. Depth?
(3/18) WRs Tyson a weapon, who's #2/depth?
(3/18) OL rebuilding with only 2/5 back
(3/18) Def returns a ton, improved a ton LY
(1/1) HC Dillingham new 5 yr deal, top tier B12 #'s

Arizona State Ratings Matchup Mississippi State

Power #16

#55

Off #13

#38

Def #27

#71

Talent #37

#48

SP+ #22

#71

SP+ Off #26

#60

SP+ Def #27

#72

Previous Matchups
Arizona State beat Mississippi State last year (30-23)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: ASU | MSST
Depth Chart: ASU | MSST
Rosters: ASU | MSST

(#55) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 3.95 #55
Offense Rating: 19.39 #38
Defense Rating: 15.09 #71
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #60
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.9 #72
Talent Rating: 798.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 17 #29
Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 50%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.32 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Awful Pass Def Success 55%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Mississippi State Notes
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
(4/19) Watch Fr QB KaMario Taylor. Dynamic runner
(4/19) DL improved, SEC caliber bodies unlike LY
(3/18) QB1? Shapen or Kromenhoek (FSU)
(3/18) RBs Booth/Bothwell/Daniels good depth
(3/18) OL 2/5 back. 4 portal adds. Bad unit LY
(3/18) Def torched LY. Return a lot, but is that good?

Arizona State's OC Marcus Arroyo

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Kanyon Floyd	2	2	100%	47	0	0	23.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kanye Udoh (Tr)	179	1117	10	6.2	72
Sam Leavitt	110	443	5	4.0	40
Kyson Brown	73	351	2	4.8	38
Raleek Brown	9	42	0	4.7	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordyn Tyson	75	1101	10	14.7	59
Jalen Moss (Tr)	49	582	4	11.9	49
Chamon Metayer	32	306	5	9.6	29
Kyson Brown	13	189	1	14.5	68

View Arizona State's Full Roster

Arizona State's DC Brian Ward

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Myles Rowser	98	4	1	2	4
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5
Keyshaun Elliott	64	4	2	2	1
Jordan Crook	57	4	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah O'Neal	28	5	4	5	5
Jacob Kongaika	10	5	3	1	0
Prince Dorbah	12	4	3	3	1
Clayton Smith	33	6	3	12	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keith Abney	52	0	0	1	9
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Xavion Alford	85	0	0	1	5

Mississippi State's OC Jeff Lebby

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	74	108	69%	974	8	1	9.0
Luke Kromenhoek (Tr)	44	84	52%	502	3	2	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	112	834	13	7.4	59
Davon Booth	152	759	5	5.0	43
Johnnie Daniels	108	540	4	5.0	36
Xavier Gayten	8	115	1	14.4	72

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Markus Allen (Tr)	42	636	3	15.1	78
Jordan Mosley	23	405	3	17.6	65
Cam Thompson (Tr)	27	388	3	14.4	54
Seydou Traore	34	361	1	10.6	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Coleman Hutzler

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Nic Mitchell	80	3	0	1	2
Branden Jennings	56	5	2	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nevaeh Sanders (Tr)	8	5	5	2	0
Zakari Tillman	30	4	4	1	2
Will Whitson (Tr)	20	4	2	2	0
Raishein Thomas (Tr)	12	2	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayven Williams (Tr)	29	2	2	1	4
Jahron Manning (Tr)	85	6	1	0	3
Isaac Smith	127	2	0	0	3