Arizona State at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Arizona State logo   Arizona State Sun Devils at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Mississippi State logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Arizona State -6.0 (58.5) (-275)  Open: -7.0 | 59.0
Mississippi State 24 - Arizona State: 20

 
Sun Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kenny Dillingham (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (25 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Mississippi State -2.5  (SP+ MSST -0)
Projected Score: ASU: 27 - MSST: 30 (57)
ASU Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
ASU Travel: 1331 miles, 1 hrs behind
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 7) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Arizona State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Arizona State vs Northern Arizona-29.552.5W 38 - 19ON
Sat 9/6 Arizona State at Mississippi State-6.058.5L 20 - 24UN
Sat 9/13 Arizona State vs Texas State-18.561.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/20 Arizona State at Baylor+3.060.5W 27 - 24UY
Fri 9/26 Arizona State vs TCU-2.554.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Arizona State at Utah+9.544.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 10/18 Arizona State vs Texas Tech+7.552.5W 26 - 22UY
Sat 10/25 Arizona State vs Houston-7.046.5L 16 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 Arizona State at Iowa State+7.548.5W 24 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Arizona State vs West Virginia-10.046.5W 25 - 23ON
Sat 11/22 Arizona State at Colorado-7.047.5W 42 - 17OY
Fri 11/28 Arizona State vs Arizona+2.048.5L 7 - 23UN
Wed 12/31 Arizona State vs Duke+4.049.5L 39 - 42OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona State's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.052.5L 29 - 43ON

Total: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 7, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU#13 (.31)50% (8)25.852% (6)3.35 (19)18747% (21)2084.14 (48)#36 (.12)42% (79)24.541% (49)44% (106)3.64 (51)50.10.61.4
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)30.440% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)30.247% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ASU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Offense1425.824.649.8%4.140.6203951872084.959%41%52%47%12%.31
MSST Defense1230.227.950.4%4.320.9 - - - - - 59%41%47%55%11%.32
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ASU Defense1424.525.242.4%3.641.4 - - - - - 45%54%41%44%16%.12
MSST Offense1230.433.939.2%3.751.520378139239450%50%40%38%21%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arizona State1429:5420.447%53%650.10.61.441.3328.6
Mississippi State1225:4120.337%57%6.860.31.50.93.90.8228.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Offense1459% (14)52% (6)38.11874.928 (25).27 (12)3.35 (19)73% (76)7% (18)0.96 (71)
MSST Defense1259% (132)47% (108) - - - - .15 (80)3.3 (113)71% (57)7% (133)0.85 (13)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ASU Defense1445% (14)41% (49) - - - - .04 (27)2.97 (61)63% (19)8% (116)1 (76)
MSST Offense1250% (73)40% (105)34.8138.6419 (73).09 (92)2.9 (93)73% (71)13% (122)1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Offense1441% (120)47% (21)14.923.9208.48.71425 (31)5 (6).39 (14)1.6 (43)27% (11)38% (5).45 (21)4% (16)1.9 (115)
MSST Defense1241% (3)55% (134) - - - - - - 7 (104).58 (134)1.5 (48)24% (134)39% (131).55 (130)4% (123)1.9 (38)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ASU Defense1454% (119)44% (106) - - - - - - 15 (18).21 (57)1.4 (18)32% (65)30% (68).14 (5)8% (21)1.9 (27)
MSST Offense1250% (62)38% (104)17.930.6239.37.813.419 (65)8 (40).25 (76)1.8 (18)34% (113)32% (62).33 (73)8% (116)2.1 (56)

Arizona State's Power Ratings
Arizona State's Power Rating: 11.84  #34
Arizona State's Offense Rating: 13.54  #66
Arizona State's Defense Rating: 1.70  #15
2025 Talent Rating: 892.00  #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Arizona State's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Arizona State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9  #60
Arizona State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Arizona State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.7  #44

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 11.84   Mississippi State: 10.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona State: 3.9   Mississippi State: 4.1




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 10.25  #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94  #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6  #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Arizona State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.6
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.2

Arizona State's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 30
Arizona State 27


Projected Total Points: 57
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Mississippi State24Arizona State20Arizona State -6.0Mississippi State58.5Under
202409/07Arizona State30Mississippi State23Arizona State -6.5Arizona State57.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State110 Overs
Arizona State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#34) ASU at (#38) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatASUMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #34 #38
SP+SP+ #60 #58
Perf GradeGrade #88 #105
OffenseOff #93 #84
DefenseDef #66 #119
Spec TeamsST #109 #77
TalentTal #27 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #27
Arizona State Notes
(11/29) Awful loss to Az to finish. No QB2 cost ASU's season
(11/6) Dillingham staying at ASU, out of coach searches
(10/31) QB Leavitt out for the season. QB2 Sims awful
(10/26) Awful L to Houston, Leavitt inj but came back
(10/22) Lead WR J Tyson out for Houston game
(10/15) RB Kyson Brown now out indefinitely (depth)
(9/27) Huge W over TCU, Run Off good, Leavitt good
(9/27) Outgained TCU 500-271, forced 3 TOs, won by GW FG?
(9/21) Big W @ Baylor, Run Def good, Leavitt great
(6/15) Expecting improved pass rush, 2nd year DLC
(5/23) ASU was 6-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/11) Least exp'd B12 OL, almost no exp from portals
Arizona State Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Arizona State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #93 #119
SuccessSuc #8 #133
ExplosiveExp #100 #18
PPAPPA #13 #130
PowerPwr #66 #44
SP+SP+ #59 #84
Pts POPPO #48 #113
HavocHav #11 #134
Arizona State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #38 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #108
Run ExplRExp #71 #13
PPAExp #12 #80
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLY #19 #113
Stuff RateStuff #30 #114
TackleTak -  #96
Arizona State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
ASU OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #82 #87
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #134
Pass ExplPExl #43 #48
PPAExp #14 #134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #33 #132
F7 HavocF7 #18 #133
DB HavocDB #16 #123
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffASU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #84 #66
SuccessSuc #109 #79
ExplosiveExp #6 #55
PPAPPA #78 #36
PowerPwr #24 #15
SP+SP+ #39 #44
Pts POPPO #86 #51
HavocHav #127 #75
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffASU Def
Run GameRun #68 #47
Run SuccessRSuc #105 #49
Run ExplRExp #28 #76
PPAExp #92 #27
Run BlockR Blk #98 -
OL YdsOLY #93 #61
Stuff RateStuff #44 #47
TackleTak -  #79
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffASU Def
Pass GamePass #43 #36
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #106
Pass ExplPExl #18 #18
PPAExp #76 #57
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #133
F7 HavocF7 #122 #116
DB HavocDB #116 #21
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ASU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Arizona State 6.0 (58.5)
Mississippi State won vs Arizona State this year (24-20)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arizona State last year (24-20)
Arizona State beat Mississippi State in 2024 (30-23)

  
ASU's OC Marcus Arroyo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Leavitt14523961%16281036.8
Jeff Sims10518856%12611066.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Raleek Brown186114146.188
Jeff Sims10052255.288
Sam Leavitt7330654.252
Kanye Udoh (Tr)5624024.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordyn Tyson61711811.757
Malik McClain31441114.236
Chamon Metayer3837549.927
Derek Eusebio22341215.568

View Arizona State's Full Roster

ASU's DC Brian Ward (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Crook1018222
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Myles Rowser844013
Adrian Wilson (Tr)571016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keyshaun Elliott9814742
Justin Wodtly427752
Elijah O'Neal379561
Prince Dorbah188471
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keith Abney4411012
Javan Robinson423008
Montana Warren402028

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor437756%629518.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)14267764.843
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor8245885.639
Xavier Gayten2915725.425
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)571054618.558
Anthony Evans III (Tr)67831412.457
Seydou Traore35372510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)21252012.049

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
Nic Mitchell785320
Brylan Lanier673102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell785320
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Malick Sylla (Tr)337251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3400011
Jahron Manning (Tr)914005
DeAgo Brumfeld361014