Mississippi State at Memphis - 2021 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Memphis TigersMemphis logo
Saturday, September 18th 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -3 (63.0)
Memphis 31 - Mississippi State: 29

 
Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (34 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Light Rain Predicted
Our Line: -2.5  (SP+ MSST -9.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 25 - MEM: 27 (52)
MSST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MSST Travel: 133 miles
Tigers (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (11 - 4)
Avg Score : 30 - 29 (32 - 25 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech-20.552.5W 35 - 34ON
Sat 9/11 Mississippi State vs NC State+1.555.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/18 Mississippi State at Memphis-3.063.0L 29 - 31UN
Sat 9/25 Mississippi State vs LSU+1.554.5L 25 - 28UN
Sat 10/2 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+7.045.5W 26 - 22OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Mississippi State vs Alabama+17.559.5L 9 - 49UN
Sat 10/23 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt-21.053.0W 45 - 6UY
Sat 10/30 Mississippi State vs Kentucky-1.047.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/6 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4.054.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 11/13 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.051.0W 43 - 34OY
Sat 11/20 Mississippi State vs Tennessee State-44.056.5W 55 - 10OY
Thu 11/25 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-2.565.0L 21 - 31UN
Tue 12/28 Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Memphis's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Memphis vs Nicholls-22.568.0W 42 - 17UY
Sat 9/11 Memphis at Arkansas State-5.565.0W 55 - 50ON
Sat 9/18 Memphis vs Mississippi State+3.063.0W 31 - 29UY
Sat 9/25 Memphis vs UTSA-3.066.5L 28 - 31UN
Sat 10/2 Memphis at Temple-11.058.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 10/9 Memphis at Tulsa+3.060.5L 29 - 35ON
Thu 10/14 Memphis vs Navy-11.055.5W 35 - 17UY
Fri 10/22 Memphis at UCF+1.563.5L 7 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6 Memphis vs SMU+3.572.0W 28 - 25UY
Sat 11/13 Memphis vs East Carolina-4.058.5L 29 - 30ON
Fri 11/19 Memphis at Houston+9.059.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 11/27 Memphis vs Tulane-5.558.0W 33 - 28ON
Fri 12/24 Memphis at Hawai'i-10.056.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.2450%29.150%3.126350%3784.06.1839%25.940%39%3.9858.51.31.3
MEM.2542%30.142%2.9413742%2993.65.2243%29.344%43%3.8239.61.61.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
MEM#23 (.27)44% (57)46% (40)3.27 (31)17541% (71)2704.66 (14)#87 (.19)40% (47)40% (45)40% (62)4.05 (96)480.61.9



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1329.134.249.9%4.061.32544163378324%76%50%50%14%.24
MEM Defense1229.325.343.4%3.821.7 - - - - - 50%50%44%43%16%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1325.924.839.4%3.981.3 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%15%.18
MEM Offense1230.132.342.2%3.651.623436137299444%56%42%42%17%.25

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1333:3825.446%63%7.658.51.31.35.42.2129.7
Memphis1226:4222.541%58%4.839.61.61.75.72.3128.6
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1324%50%20.863.2310.083.1279%8%0.71
MEM Defense1250%44% - - - - .183.2673%9%1.01
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1346%40% - - - - .092.8773%10%0.95
MEM Offense1244%42%34.7137.1418.142.9477%10%1.04

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1376%50%39.854.2378.379.5379.31.229%39%.457%1.9
MEM Defense1250%43% - - - - - - 9.271.528%35%.467%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1353%39% - - - - - - 11.271.733%29%.325%2
MEM Offense1256%42%22.337.1298.88.113.42611.331.735%33%.468%2.3

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State:    Memphis: 3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5   Memphis: 1.0




Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 3 NR
Memphis's Offense Rating: NR
Memphis's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Memphis's 2021 Expected Record: -
Memphis's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0  #74
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.6  #60
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #78

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 25.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Memphis 27
Mississippi State 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Memphis 25
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 29
Memphis 28

Total Points: 57
Memphis Scoring
Offense: 30.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 29.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Memphis's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202209/03Mississippi State49Memphis23Mississippi State -17Mississippi State58.0Over
202109/18Memphis31Mississippi State29Mississippi State -3Memphis63.0Under
201109/01Memphis14Mississippi State59
201009/04Mississippi State49Memphis7
200310/11Mississippi State35Memphis27
200210/19Memphis17Mississippi State29
200109/03Mississippi State30Memphis10
200009/01Memphis3Mississippi State17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Memphis111 Overs
Mississippi State711 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 32 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams3 - 50 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#) MSST at (#) MEM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTMEM
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #34 #74
Perf GradeGrade #65 #74
OffenseOff #65 #81
DefenseDef #64 #45
Spec TeamsST #75 #76
TalentTal #29 #65
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffMEM Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #65 #45
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #78
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffMEM Def
Run GameRun #119 #64
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #30
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffMEM Def
Pass GamePass #9 #22
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #5 #92
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Memphis on Offense
CategoryCatMEM OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #81 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #60 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Memphis Run Game
CategoryCat
MEM OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #94 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #87 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Memphis Pass Game
CategoryCatMEM OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #90 #46
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #88 #89
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Down to Top G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Light Rain
Temp: 81°( - Hum: 76%)
- Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Mississippi State 3.0 (63.0)
Memphis won vs Mississippi State this year (31-29)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Memphis in 2022 (49-23)

  
MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

MEM's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD