Louisville at Mississippi State - 2017 Matchup Preview

Louisville Cardinals vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, December 30th 2017 (12:00 PM EST)
Louisville -6.5 (62.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Mississippi State 31 - Louisville: 27

Cardinals (8 - 5) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (23 - 26 on Road)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ LOU -3)
Projected Score: LOU: 28 - MSST: 28 (56)
LOU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
LOU Travel: 593 miles

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LOU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Louisville's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Louisville vs Purdue	-25.5	67.5	W 35 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/9	Louisville at North Carolina	-11.5	65.5	W 47 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Clemson	+3.0	61.0	L 21 - 47	O	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Kent State	-41.5	56.0	W 42 - 3	U	N
Sat 9/30	Louisville vs Murray State	-49.0	63.5	W 55 - 10	O	N
Thu 10/5	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	67.0	L 25 - 39	U	N
Sat 10/14	Louisville vs Boston College	-20.0	60.0	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Louisville at Florida State	+7.0	58.0	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Louisville at Wake Forest	-3.0	66.5	L 32 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Louisville vs Virginia	-14.0	66.5	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Louisville vs Syracuse	-15.0	69.0	W 56 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville at Kentucky	-10.0	68.0	W 44 - 17	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisville's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs Charleston Southern	-23.0
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech	-10.5	67.5	W 57 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+7.5	53.5	W 37 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at Georgia	+2.5	50.0	L 3 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State at Auburn	+7.5	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Mississippi State vs BYU	-23.0	50.5	W 35 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-14.0	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	-3.5	55.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Massachusetts	-34.0	57.0	W 34 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+14.5	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State at Arkansas	-14.0	56.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-14.0	64.5	L 28 - 31	U	N
Sat 12/30	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU	.33	50%	29.9	53%	3.52	242	44%	291	4.36	.06	36%	21.2	34%	36%	3.28	70.7	2.5	1.9
MSST	.22	45%	30.4	47%	3.36	231	41%	210	3.13	.23	43%	30.2	42%	43%	3.66	47.5	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Offense	13	29.9	23	49.5%	4.36	2.5	25	533	242	291	6	47%	51%	53%	44%	17%	.33
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	43.2%	3.66	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	42%	43%	15%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LOU Defense	13	21.2	25.5	36.4%	3.28	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	34%	36%	19%	.06
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	45.2%	3.13	1.2	22	440	231	210	5.6	55%	44%	47%	41%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Louisville	13	28:46	24.8	41%	69%	7.8	70.7	2.5	1.9	7.5	2.3	2	32.2
Mississippi State	13	28:51	22.1	41%	50%	5.2	47.5	1.2	1.7	6.2	1.9	3	29.6

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Offense	13	47%	53%	40.4	242.2	6	37	.38	3.52	76%	12%	1.16
MSST Defense	13	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.12	2.97	64%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LOU Defense	13	49%	34%	-	-	-	-	-.07	2.54	65%	13%	0.86
MSST Offense	13	55%	47%	40.9	230.5	5.6	24	.26	3.36	75%	9%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Offense	13	51%	44%	19.1	33.5	290.5	8.7	15.2	32	10	.33	1.6	32%	38%	.44	5%	1.8
MSST Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.35	1.8	33%	37%	.4	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LOU Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.19	1.8	37%	29%	.23	6%	1.9
MSST Offense	13	44%	41%	17.7	31.6	209.7	6.6	11.9	24	10	.18	1.5	29%	34%	.32	7%	1.9

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Louisville's 2017 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.2 #14
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3 #2
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9 #47

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisville: Mississippi State: 8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisville: 19.2 Mississippi State: 16.0

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2017 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #40
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #18

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.5

Louisville's 2017 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 28
Mississippi State 28

Projected Total Points: 56

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2017 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2019	12/30	Louisville	38	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State -5.0	Louisville	64.5	Over
2017	12/30	Mississippi State	31	Louisville	27	Louisville -6.5	Mississippi State	62.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	1	1	1 Overs
Louisville	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0

Louisville Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2017	N/A	Louisville vs Mississippi State	-6.5	62.0	L 27 - 31
2016	N/A	Louisville vs LSU	+3.0	59.0	L 9 - 29
2015	N/A	Louisville vs Texas A&M	+2.5		W 27 - 21
2014	Belk Bowl	Louisville vs Georgia	+7.0	54.0	L 14 - 37
2013	Athletic Bowl	Louisville vs Miami	-5.5	60.0	W 36 - 9
2012	Sugar Bowl	Louisville vs Florida			W 33 - 23
2011	Belk Bowl	Louisville vs NC State			L 24 - 31

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2017	N/A	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27
2016	Petersburg Bowl	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16
2015	N/A	Mississippi State vs NC State	-7.0		W 51 - 28
2014	N/A	Mississippi State vs Georgia Tech	-5.5	59.5	L 34 - 49
2013	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Rice	-7.0	50.5	W 44 - 7
2012	Gator Bowl	Mississippi State vs Northwestern			L 20 - 34
2011	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Wake Forest			W 23 - 17

(#) LOU at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LOU	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#14	#19
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#36	#26
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Louisville Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#2	#18
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#40	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in EverBank Field
Conditions:
Temp: 47° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Louisville 6.5 (62.0)
Mississippi State won vs Louisville this year (31-27)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD