Mississippi State at Texas Tech - 2021 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Tech Red Raiders

Tuesday, December 28th 2021 (6:45 PM EST)
Mississippi State -10 (58.5) (290) Open: -9.5 | 59.5
Texas Tech 34 - Mississippi State: 7 (AutoZone Liberty Bowl)

Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ MSST -0.5)
Projected Score: MSST: 19 - TTU: 37 (56)
MSST Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MSST Travel: 133 miles

Red Raiders (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 14)
Avg Score : 39 - 11 (48 - 9 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MSST Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	52.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5	55.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0	63.0	L 29 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5	54.5	L 25 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0	45.5	W 26 - 22	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5	59.5	L 9 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0	53.0	W 45 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0	47.0	W 31 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0	54.0	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0	51.0	W 43 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0	56.5	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5	65.0	L 21 - 31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Texas Tech vs Houston	+2.5	63.0	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin	-31.5	51.5	W 28 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/18	Texas Tech vs Florida International	-20.5	54.0	W 54 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Texas Tech at Texas	+9.0	63.0	L 35 - 70	O	N
Sat 10/2	Texas Tech at West Virginia	+7.5	55.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Texas Tech vs TCU	+2.5	60.0	L 31 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/16	Texas Tech at Kansas	-18.5	67.5	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Texas Tech vs Kansas State	+1.0	60.5	L 24 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Texas Tech at Oklahoma	+18.5	67.0	L 21 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Texas Tech vs Iowa State	+13.0	55.5	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State	+10.0	55.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/27	Texas Tech at Baylor	+14.0	51.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Tue 12/28	Texas Tech vs Mississippi State	+10.0	58.5	W 34 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.05	41%	30.4	47%	3	44	40%	296	2.9	.11	41%	30.2	42%	40%	3.18	60.2	2.3	1.5
TTU	.15	43%	39.4	46%	2.88	164	40%	265	3.08	.19	44%	11.3	45%	43%	4.23	57.4	1.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TTU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	11	30.4	25.8	41.2%	2.9	2.3	19	340	44	296	2.4	23%	77%	47%	40%	20%	.05
TTU Defense	10	11.3	8.7	44.1%	4.23	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	43%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	11	30.2	31	41.1%	3.18	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	40%	16%	.11
TTU Offense	10	39.4	47.9	42.5%	3.08	1.8	22	429	164	265	4.9	45%	55%	46%	40%	17%	.15

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	11	30:54	18.8	32%	57%	6.5	60.2	2.3	1.5	5.5	2.3	2	27.6
Texas Tech	10	27:04	21.5	37%	55%	6.6	57.4	1.8	1	5.8	1.7	1	32.6

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	11	23%	47%	18.5	44.1	2.4	8	.06	3	74%	9%	0.76
TTU Defense	10	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.98	71%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	11	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.81	65%	9%	0.85
TTU Offense	10	45%	46%	33.7	163.7	4.9	17	.15	2.88	69%	9%	0.96

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	11	77%	40%	33.9	50.6	296.3	5.9	8.7	17	18	.05	1.2	31%	28%	.23	11%	2.2
TTU Defense	10	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.29	1.5	29%	31%	.31	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	11	53%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.18	1.7	30%	31%	.34	7%	2.3
TTU Offense	10	55%	40%	25.7	39.5	264.9	6.7	10.3	18	11	.17	1.4	32%	31%	.23	8%	1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5 #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Texas Tech: 4.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5 Texas Tech: 9.8

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 4.9 NR
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: NR
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Texas Tech's 2021 Expected Record: -
Texas Tech's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.8 #40
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6 #28
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #69

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 37
Mississippi State 19

Projected Total Points: 56

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 39.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.9
Defense: 11.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.7

Texas Tech's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	12/28	Texas Tech	34	Mississippi State	7	Mississippi State -10	Texas Tech	58.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	1	1	0 Overs
Mississippi State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34
2020	Forces Bowl	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26
2019	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38
2018	Outback Bowl	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27
2017	N/A	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27
2016	Petersburg Bowl	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16
2015	N/A	Mississippi State vs NC State	-7.0		W 51 - 28

Texas Tech Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2021	Liberty Bowl	Texas Tech vs Mississippi State	+10.0	58.5	W 34 - 7
2017	Birmingham Bowl	Texas Tech vs South Florida	+2.0	66.0	L 34 - 38
2015	Texas Bowl	Texas Tech vs LSU	+7.5		L 27 - 56

(#) MSST at (#) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	TTU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#34	#40
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#74
OffenseOff	#65	#56
DefenseDef	#64	#91
Spec TeamsST	#75	#86
TalentTal	#29	#59
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Texas Tech Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TTU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#91
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#119	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#59	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#91

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#9	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#118
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Texas Tech on Offense


CategoryCat	TTU Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#56	#64
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#33
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Texas Tech Run Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#68	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

Texas Tech Pass Game


CategoryCat	TTU Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#30	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#62	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Average P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State 10.0 (58.5)
Texas Tech won vs Mississippi State this year (34-7)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TTU's OC Sonny Cumbie (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Keith Patterson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD