LSU at Mississippi State Game Matchup

LSU Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
LSU -9.5 (54.0) (0) Open: 0.0
LSU 41 - Mississippi State: 14 (SEC)

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSST 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: LSU -17.5 (SP+ LSU -19)
Projected Score: LSU: 37 - MSST: 20 (57)
LSU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
LSU Travel: 253 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 34 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
LSU Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for LSU's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU	.33	51%	30.5	55%	3.63	184	48%	269	4.6	.16	41%	24.3	45%	37%	3.34	52.1	1.4	2
MSST	.19	46%	25.8	45%	2.96	82	47%	310	4.23	.09	39%	34.1	41%	38%	3.53	60.8	1.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Offense	14	30.5	27.3	51.3%	4.6	1.4	25	453	184	269	5	47%	53%	55%	48%	13%	.33
MSST Defense	13	34.1	34.9	39.2%	3.53	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	41%	38%	18%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LSU Defense	14	24.3	27	40.8%	3.34	2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	37%	15%	.16
MSST Offense	13	25.8	30.7	46.2%	4.23	1.5	23	393	82	310	3.6	30%	70%	45%	47%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
LSU	14	31:01	24.6	49%	50%	6	52.1	1.4	2	4.8	1.9	2	27.8
Mississippi State	13	29:58	22.8	39%	52%	6.3	60.8	1.5	1.9	6.4	2.4	5	31.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Offense	14	47%	55%	37	183.8	5	39	.35	3.63	80%	9%	0.99
MSST Defense	13	46%	41%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.79	59%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LSU Defense	14	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.9	74%	10%	0.93
MSST Offense	13	30%	45%	22.8	82.4	3.6	12	.12	2.96	60%	8%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Offense	14	53%	48%	23	34.3	269.3	7.9	11.7	23	7	.32	1.4	27%	35%	.43	4%	2
MSST Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.1	1.6	34%	28%	.09	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LSU Defense	14	51%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.17	1.7	32%	32%	.38	5%	2.2
MSST Offense	13	70%	47%	32.8	48.8	310.4	6.4	9.5	36	9	.22	1.2	27%	30%	.31	8%	2

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 17.07 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 1142.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
LSU: 17.07 Mississippi State: 0.555

SP+ Ratings Matchup
LSU: 18.7 Mississippi State: -0.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 993.25
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

LSU Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 37
Mississippi State 20

Projected Total Points: 57

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 34.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.9

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	Mississippi State	14	LSU	41	LSU	LSU -9.5	LSU	54.0	Over
2022	09/17	LSU	31	Mississippi State	16	LSU	Mississippi State -3	LSU	53.0	Under
2021	09/25	Mississippi State	25	LSU	28	LSU	LSU -1.5	LSU	54.5	Under
2020	09/26	LSU	34	Mississippi State	44	Mississippi State	LSU -14.5	Mississippi State	57.0	Over
2019	10/19	Mississippi State	13	LSU	36	LSU	LSU -17.5	LSU	62.0	Under
2018	10/20	LSU	19	Mississippi State	3	LSU	LSU -6	LSU	45.5	Under
2017	09/16	Mississippi State	37	LSU	7	Mississippi State	LSU -7.5	Mississippi State	53.5	Under
2016	09/17	LSU	23	Mississippi State	20	LSU	LSU -13	Mississippi State	47.0	Under
2015	09/12	Mississippi State	19	LSU	21	LSU	LSU -3	Mississippi State	52.5	Under
2014	09/20	LSU	29	Mississippi State	34	Mississippi State	LSU -7	Mississippi State	0
2013	10/05	Mississippi State	26	LSU	59	LSU	LSU -9.5	LSU	0
2012	11/10	LSU	37	Mississippi State	17	LSU
2011	09/15	Mississippi State	6	LSU	19	LSU
2010	09/18	LSU	29	Mississippi State	7	LSU
2009	09/26	Mississippi State	26	LSU	30	LSU
2008	09/27	LSU	34	Mississippi State	24	LSU
2007	08/30	Mississippi State	0	LSU	45	LSU
2006	09/30	LSU	48	Mississippi State	17	LSU
2005	10/01	Mississippi State	7	LSU	37	LSU
2004	09/25	LSU	51	Mississippi State	0	LSU
2003	09/27	Mississippi State	6	LSU	41	LSU
2002	09/28	LSU	31	Mississippi State	13	LSU
2001	10/20	Mississippi State	0	LSU	42	LSU
2000	10/20	LSU	45	Mississippi State	38	LSU

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	3	5	2 Overs
LSU	21	6	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 13	4 - 7	1 - 3	3 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 11	7 - 4	4 - 3	3 - 1

(#8) LSU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 17.07 #8
Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 1142.00 #6
Blue Chip Ratio: 70% #7
Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30

Team Profile

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LSU Ratings Matchup Mississippi State

Power #8

#84

Off #1

#120

Def #122

#85

Talent #6

#31

SP+ #10

#66

SP+ Off #2

#78

SP+ Def #55

#55

Rematch from Week 3
LSU 9.5 (54.0)
LSU won at Mississippi State this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Mississippi State in 2023 (41-14)
LSU beat Mississippi State in 2022 (31-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 84°

Team Information
Injuries: LSU | MSST
Depth Chart: LSU | MSST
Rosters: LSU | MSST

(#84) Mississippi State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.555 #84
Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55
Talent Rating: 784.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 21 #32
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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LSU's OC Mike Denbrock

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Williams	117	482	6	4.1	23
Armoni Goodwin	14	88	0	6.3	26
Emery Jones	0	17	0	0.0	17
Logan Diggs (Tr)	1	15	0	15.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kyren Lacy	58	866	9	14.9	35
Mason Taylor	55	546	2	9.9	33
Josh Williams	31	263	0	8.5	23
Jalen Brown	8	75	0	9.4	21

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0
Darian Chestnut	60	4	1	1	5
Bradyn Swinson (Tr)	57	13	9	8	3
Major Burns	49	5	2	2	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bradyn Swinson (Tr)	57	13	9	8	3
Savion Jones	40	7	4	8	2
Paris Shand (Tr)	25	6	3	1	1
Greg Penn III	83	5	2	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Laterrance Welch	19	0	0	1	7
Darian Chestnut	60	4	1	1	5
Zy Alexander (Tr)	33	3	1	0	4

Mississippi State's OC Kevin Barbay

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	220	311	71%	2458	14	7	7.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	39	67	58%	356	0	1	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	198	1133	9	5.7	65
Simeon Price	44	136	0	3.1	18
Mike Wright (Tr)	17	82	1	4.8	20
Zavion Thomas	9	76	0	8.4	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	47	321	0	6.8	33
Justin Robinson	16	244	3	15.3	50
Zavion Thomas	23	218	2	9.5	21
Ryland Goede (Tr)	6	70	1	11.7	25

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

Mississippi State's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Will James	35	2	7
J.P. Purvis	35	0	0
Luke Evans	31	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Caleb Bryant	4	0	0
Ryland Goede (Tr)	1	0	0
Keelan Crimmins	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Will James	35	2	7
Corey Ellington	53	1	3
Luke Evans	31	1	3