Mississippi State at Arkansas - 2021 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas logo
Saturday, November 6th 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas -4 (54.0)
Arkansas 31 - Mississippi State: 28  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (34 - 25 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ARK coming off BYE
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -4  (SP+ ARK -3)
Projected Score: MSST: 28 - ARK: 27 (55)
ARK Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 355 miles
Razorbacks (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Sam Pittman (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 23 (37 - 19 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech-20.552.5W 35 - 34ON
Sat 9/11 Mississippi State vs NC State+1.555.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/18 Mississippi State at Memphis-3.063.0L 29 - 31UN
Sat 9/25 Mississippi State vs LSU+1.554.5L 25 - 28UN
Sat 10/2 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+7.045.5W 26 - 22OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Mississippi State vs Alabama+17.559.5L 9 - 49UN
Sat 10/23 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt-21.053.0W 45 - 6UY
Sat 10/30 Mississippi State vs Kentucky-1.047.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/6 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4.054.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 11/13 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.051.0W 43 - 34OY
Sat 11/20 Mississippi State vs Tennessee State-44.056.5W 55 - 10OY
Thu 11/25 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-2.565.0L 21 - 31UN
Tue 12/28 Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Arkansas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Arkansas vs Rice-19.550.0W 38 - 17OY
Sat 9/11 Arkansas vs Texas+6.057.5W 40 - 21OY
Sat 9/18 Arkansas vs Georgia Southern-23.053.5W 45 - 10OY
Sat 9/25 Arkansas vs Texas A&M+4.547.0W 20 - 10UY
Sat 10/2 Arkansas at Georgia+16.548.0L 0 - 37UN
Sat 10/9 Arkansas at Ole Miss+5.067.0L 51 - 52OY
Sat 10/16 Arkansas vs Auburn-4.554.0L 23 - 38ON
Sat 10/23 Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-50.559.5W 45 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6 Arkansas vs Mississippi State-4.054.0W 31 - 28ON
Sat 11/13 Arkansas at LSU-3.059.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 11/20 Arkansas at Alabama+20.558.5L 35 - 42OY
Fri 11/26 Arkansas vs Missouri-14.563.0W 34 - 17UY
Sat 1/1 Arkansas vs Penn State-3.551.0W 24 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.2450%29.150%3.126350%3784.06.1839%25.940%39%3.9858.51.31.3
ARK.2844%30.946%3.3222842%2143.61.1439%22.941%39%3.0363.10.81.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1329.134.249.9%4.061.32544163378324%76%50%50%14%.24
ARK Defense1322.919.139.5%3.031.5 - - - - - 52%48%41%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1325.924.839.4%3.981.3 - - - - - 46%53%40%39%15%.18
ARK Offense1330.936.644.4%3.610.822442228214560%39%46%42%16%.28

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1333:3825.446%63%7.658.51.31.35.42.2129.7
Arkansas1329:3021.837%63%7.963.10.81.56.11.8127.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1324%50%20.863.2310.083.1279%8%0.71
ARK Defense1352%41% - - - - .082.8867%10%0.96
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1346%40% - - - - .092.8773%10%0.95
ARK Offense1360%46%45.2227.8526.243.3277%12%1.09

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1376%50%39.854.2378.379.5379.31.229%39%.457%1.9
ARK Defense1348%39% - - - - - - 13.211.632%22%.176%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1353%39% - - - - - - 11.271.733%29%.325%2
ARK Offense1339%42%15.824.2213.98.913.6225.371.731%31%.434%2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State:    Arkansas: 9.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5   Arkansas: 13.8




Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 9.4 NR
Arkansas's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Arkansas's 2021 Expected Record: -
Arkansas's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.8  #22
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3  #31
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #27

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 25.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 28
Arkansas 27

Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 29
Arkansas 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas 29
Mississippi State 26

Total Points: 55
Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.1

Arkansas's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Arkansas35Mississippi State38Arkansas -5.5Mississippi State66.5Over
202410/26Mississippi State25Arkansas58Arkansas -7.5Arkansas55.0Over
202310/21Arkansas3Mississippi State7Arkansas -6.5Mississippi State46.5Under
202210/08Mississippi State40Arkansas17Mississippi State -8Mississippi State55.5Over
202111/06Arkansas31Mississippi State28Arkansas -4Mississippi State54.0Over
202010/03Mississippi State14Arkansas21Mississippi State -16.5Arkansas68.0Under
201911/02Arkansas24Mississippi State54Mississippi State -7Mississippi State59.0Over
201811/17Mississippi State52Arkansas6Mississippi State -22.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201711/18Arkansas21Mississippi State28Mississippi State -14Arkansas56.0Under
201611/19Mississippi State42Arkansas58Mississippi State -1Arkansas57.5Over
201511/21Arkansas50Mississippi State51Arkansas -3Mississippi State59.0Over
201411/01Mississippi State17Arkansas10Mississippi State -14Arkansas0
201311/23Arkansas17Mississippi State24Mississippi State -3Mississippi State0
201211/17Mississippi State45Arkansas14
201111/19Arkansas44Mississippi State17
201011/20Mississippi State31Arkansas38
200911/21Arkansas42Mississippi State21
200811/22Mississippi State31Arkansas28
200711/17Arkansas45Mississippi State31
200611/18Mississippi State14Arkansas28
200511/19Arkansas44Mississippi State10
200411/20Mississippi State21Arkansas24
200311/22Arkansas52Mississippi State6
200111/17Arkansas24Mississippi State21
200011/17Mississippi State10Arkansas17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Arkansas1458 Overs
Mississippi State1183 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 133 - 102 - 71 - 3
Road Teams13 - 1210 - 33 - 17 - 2

(#) MSST at (#) ARK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTARK
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #34 #22
Perf GradeGrade #65 #44
OffenseOff #65 #38
DefenseDef #64 #77
Spec TeamsST #75 #54
TalentTal #29 #28
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffARK Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #65 #77
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #27
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffARK Def
Run GameRun #119 #73
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #45
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffARK Def
Pass GamePass #9 #68
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #5 #62
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Arkansas on Offense
CategoryCatARK OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #38 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #31 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas Run Game
CategoryCat
ARK OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #34 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Arkansas Pass Game
CategoryCatARK OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #65 #46
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #89
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions:
Temp: 64°
Rematch from Week 10
Arkansas -4.0 (54.0)
Arkansas won vs Mississippi State this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

  
MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ARK's OC Kendal Briles (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Barry Odom (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD