Texas at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas logo (#22)Texas Longhorns at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (4:15 PM EDT)
Texas -8.5 (48.5) (-325)  Open: -8.5
Texas 45 - Mississippi State: 38  (SEC)

 
Longhorns (10 - 3) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Steve Sarkisian (36 - 16)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 3.5 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
TEX 2nd straight Road Game
TEX is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Texas -8.5  (SP+ TEX -11)

Projected Score: TEX: 29 - MSST: 21 (50)
TEX Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
TEX Travel: 568 miles
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 4) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas at Ohio State+1.546.5L 7 - 14UN
Sat 9/6 Texas vs San José State-37.052.5W 38 - 7UN
Sat 9/13 Texas vs UTEP-39.552.5W 27 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 Texas vs Sam Houston-39.551.5W 55 - 0OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas at Florida-4.542.5L 21 - 29ON
Sat 10/11 Texas vs Oklahoma-2.544.5W 23 - 6UY
Sat 10/18 Texas at Kentucky-12.545.5W 16 - 13UN
Sat 10/25 Texas at Mississippi State-8.548.5W 45 - 38ON
Sat 11/1 Texas vs Vanderbilt-3.548.5W 34 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Texas at Georgia+3.550.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/22 Texas vs Arkansas-10.557.5W 52 - 37OY
Fri 11/28 Texas vs Texas A&M+2.554.5W 27 - 17UY
Wed 12/31 Texas vs Michigan-7.050.0W 41 - 27OY

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.053.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#77 (.16)40% (102)30.542% (90)2.83 (87)12039% (102)2343.4 (97)#44 (.11)40% (47)20.338% (25)41% (63)3.82 (85)61.80.61.5
MSST#86 (.15)42% (73)30.545% (54)2.82 (92)16139% (99)2374.49 (19)#104 (.21)44% (103)29.248% (124)41% (60)3.64 (66)61.81.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TEX#39 (.24)46% (27)49% (16)2.95 (84)15244% (43)2414.03 (54)#3 (-.01)38% (22)42% (61)34% (7)2.57 (3)44.31.41.8
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Offense1330.519.839.9%3.40.617354120234447%51%42%39%16%.16
MSST Defense1229.227.944.2%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%41%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TEX Defense1320.325.839.8%3.821.5 - - - - - 44%55%38%41%18%.11
MSST Offense1230.533.941.9%4.491.3223981612373.853%46%45%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas1326:2517.240%47%7.461.80.61.55.72.8231.3
Mississippi State1228:4221.844%48%7.361.81.31.44.51.7028.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Offense1347% (92)42% (90)30119.9414 (88).06 (97)2.83 (87)67% (102)10% (94)0.88 (106)
MSST Defense1253% (105)48% (124) - - - - .16 (99)3.42 (135)74% (94)8% (120)0.89 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TEX Defense1344% (11)38% (25) - - - - -.02 (11)2.59 (15)50% (2)11% (20)0.82 (9)
MSST Offense1253% (40)45% (54)42.3161.43.828 (16).12 (64)2.82 (92)71% (72)12% (125)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Offense1351% (45)39% (102)18.229.7233.77.912.826 (50)7 (60).28 (56)1.8 (10)33% (93)32% (53).4 (32)6% (59)2.2 (19)
MSST Defense1245% (31)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (6).28 (83)1.7 (114)29% (104)30% (74).33 (88)6% (64)2.2 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TEX Defense1355% (127)41% (63) - - - - - - 13 (12).24 (66)1.5 (37)32% (57)29% (70).27 (64)7% (41)1.8 (21)
MSST Offense1246% (91)39% (99)18.930.32377.812.519 (75)9 (60).2 (95)1.7 (16)34% (115)30% (70).35 (51)7% (94)2.3 (7)

Texas's Power Ratings
Texas's Power Rating: 19.09  #19
Texas's Offense Rating: 16.15  #33
Texas's Defense Rating: -2.94  #22
2025 Talent Rating: 1074.00  #5
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #6
Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 9.5 - 3.5
Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #22
Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3  #38
Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.9  #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas: 19.09   Mississippi State: 8.505

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas: 14.8   Mississippi State: 3.8




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 8.505  #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96  #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.8

Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas 29
Mississippi State 21


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas 25
Mississippi State 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Texas 27
Mississippi State 27

Total Points: 54
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Mississippi State38Texas45Texas -8.5Mississippi State48.5Over
202409/28Texas35Mississippi State13Texas -37Mississippi State58.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State021 Overs
Texas201 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#19) TEX at (#48) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTEXMSST
Power RatePwr #19 #48
SP+SP+ #22 #58
Perf GradeGrade #14 #102
OffenseOff #30 #94
DefenseDef #22 #105
Spec TeamsST #42 #84
TalentTal #5 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #6 #27
Texas Notes
(12/18) DC Pete Kwiatkowski fired, Will Muschamp hired
(11/2) Manning getting hot, Run Off awful. Big W vs Vandy
(10/31) QB1 Manning will start vs Vandy, was ?
(10/25) Ryan Niblett best PR in CFB, saving Horns season
(10/18) Off only 179 yds in UK win, OG'd by 200+, lucky W
(10/14) RB2 Jerrick Gibson no longer w/ program
(10/9) RB1 CJ Baxter doubtful for OU game
(10/5) The Run Off is horrific & Arch looks lost. Bad vibes
(9/13) Arch awful vs UTEP. Very concerning now
(8/30) Fr CB Graceson Littleton the real deal
(8/30) Arch bad vs OSU, inconsistent. OL dominated
(6/14) Only P4 w/ same HC, OC, DC, S&C for 5+ year
Texas Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #30 #105
SuccessSuc #102 #103
ExplosiveExp #16 #60
PPAPPA #77 #104
PowerPwr #33 #67
SP+SP+ #38 #76
Pts POPPO #97 #66
HavocHav #73 #107
Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #78 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #124
Run ExplRExp #106 #32
PPAExp #97 #99
Run BlockR Blk #27 -
OL YdsOLY #87 #135
Stuff RateStuff #119 #124
TackleTak -  #95
Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TEX OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #20 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #102 #60
Pass ExplPExl #10 #114
PPAExp #56 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #70 #127
F7 HavocF7 #94 #120
DB HavocDB #59 #64
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffTEX Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #22
SuccessSuc #73 #47
ExplosiveExp #43 #27
PPAPPA #86 #44
PowerPwr #34 #22
SP+SP+ #42 #17
Pts POPPO #19 #85
HavocHav #120 #25
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffTEX Def
Run GameRun #74 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #25
Run ExplRExp #65 #9
PPAExp #64 #11
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #15
Stuff RateStuff #79 #30
TackleTak -  #18
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffTEX Def
Pass GamePass #54 #50
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #63
Pass ExplPExl #16 #37
PPAExp #95 #66
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #8
F7 HavocF7 #125 #20
DB HavocDB #94 #41
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TEX 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 73° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Texas 8.5 (48.5)
Texas won at Mississippi State this year (45-38)

Previous Matchups
Texas beat Mississippi State last year (35-13)

  
TEX's OC Kyle Flood (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Arch Manning22737061%29422478.0
Matthew Caldwell (Tr)81173%85107.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Arch Manning8324482.936
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Jerrick Gibson3715214.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Wingo50770715.475
DeAndre Moore Jr.38532414.046
Parker Livingstone26491618.983
Emmett Mosley V (Tr)23357315.540

View Texas's Full Roster

TEX's DC Pete Kwiatkowski (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jelani McDonald734013
Michael Taaffe701101
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Liona Lefau682003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Simmons411411152
Anthony Hill Jr.707451
Brad Spence (Tr)185320
Trey Moore345363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kade Phillips140005
Graceson Littleton403005
Malik Muhammad303114

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor305555%388417.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)12863965.043
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor6439576.239
Xavier Gayten2414926.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)53948617.958
Anthony Evans III (Tr)63751411.957
Seydou Traore34361510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)19222011.749

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
Nic Mitchell725320
Brylan Lanier653102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell725320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Kalvin Dinkins253200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3000011
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
DeAgo Brumfeld331014