Wake Forest at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Friday, January 2nd 2026 (8:00 PM EST)
Mississippi State -3 (52.5) (-148) Open: -3.0 | 56.5
Wake Forest 43 - Mississippi State: 29 (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

Demon Deacons (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Mississippi State -1 (SP+ WAKE -1.5)
Projected Score: WAKE: 27 - MSST: 28 (54)
MSST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WAKE Travel: 71 miles

Bulldogs (5 - 8) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
WAKE Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State	-17.5	51.5	W 10 - 9	U	N
Sat 9/6	Wake Forest vs Western Carolina	-17.5	60.5	W 42 - 10	U	Y
Thu 9/11	Wake Forest vs NC State	+7.5	52.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech	+13.5	53.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Wake Forest at Virginia Tech	+4.5	51.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 10/11	Wake Forest at Oregon State	-1.5	47.5	W 39 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	Wake Forest vs SMU	+6.5	53.5	W 13 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/1	Wake Forest at Florida State	+12.5	50.5	L 7 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/8	Wake Forest at Virginia	+7.0	48.5	W 16 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Wake Forest vs North Carolina	-3.5	37.5	W 28 - 12	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Wake Forest vs Delaware	-17.5	49.5	W 52 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Wake Forest at Duke	+2.5	54.0	L 32 - 49	O	N
Fri 1/2	Wake Forest vs Mississippi State	+3.0	52.5	W 43 - 29	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Mississippi State at Southern Miss	-11.5	59.5	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Mississippi State vs Arizona State	+6.0	58.5	W 24 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Mississippi State vs Alcorn State	-42.5	56.5	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois	-23.5	48.5	W 38 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Mississippi State vs Tennessee	+7.5	63.5	L 34 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+17.5	57.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Mississippi State at Florida	+9.5	50.5	L 21 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/25	Mississippi State vs Texas	+8.5	48.5	L 38 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+5.5	66.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+9.5	56.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/15	Mississippi State at Missouri	+7.5	50.5	L 27 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+7.5	62.5	L 19 - 38	U	N
Fri 1/2	Mississippi State vs Wake Forest	-3.0	52.5	L 29 - 43	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)	28.1	43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)	22.1	48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)	30.4	40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)	30.2	47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Offense	12	28.1	24.8	41.9%	3.2	1.8	22	372	131	240	3.6	48%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.13
MSST Defense	12	30.2	27.9	50.4%	4.32	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	47%	55%	11%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WAKE Defense	12	22.1	27.4	50.7%	4.12	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	53%	12%	.27
MSST Offense	12	30.4	33.9	39.2%	3.75	1.5	20	378	139	239	4	50%	50%	40%	38%	21%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wake Forest	12	28:51	21.8	39%	64%	5.1	45.9	1.8	1.4	4.9	1.7	2	29
Mississippi State	12	25:41	20.3	37%	57%	6.8	60.3	1.5	0.9	3.9	0.8	2	28.1

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense	12	48% (86)	43% (79)	36.4	131.4	3.6	18 (78)	.05 (106)	3 (79)	81% (18)	10% (70)	0.92 (88)
MSST Defense	12	59% (132)	47% (108)	-	-	-	-	.15 (80)	3.3 (113)	71% (57)	7% (133)	0.85 (13)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense	12	44% (6)	48% (110)	-	-	-	-	.18 (101)	3.13 (88)	80% (112)	8% (110)	0.96 (58)
MSST Offense	12	50% (73)	40% (105)	34.8	138.6	4	19 (73)	.09 (92)	2.9 (93)	73% (71)	13% (122)	1.08 (28)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense	12	52% (50)	41% (75)	20.7	33.6	240.1	7.2	11.6	17 (79)	13 (103)	.23 (83)	1.5 (115)	31% (63)	28% (102)	.15 (125)	7% (93)	1.9 (103)
MSST Defense	12	41% (3)	55% (134)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.58 (134)	1.5 (48)	24% (134)	39% (131)	.55 (130)	4% (123)	1.9 (38)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense	12	56% (129)	53% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.36 (116)	1.3 (2)	26% (130)	40% (132)	.41 (106)	4% (131)	1.8 (18)
MSST Offense	12	50% (62)	38% (104)	17.9	30.6	239.3	7.8	13.4	19 (65)	8 (40)	.25 (76)	1.8 (18)	34% (113)	32% (62)	.33 (73)	8% (116)	2.1 (56)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 7.73 #48
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 11.98 #75
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 4.25 #18
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #52
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #70
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 7.73 Mississippi State: 7.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 5.7 Mississippi State: 4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 7.75 #38
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 20.94 #24
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 9.54 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00 #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 28
Wake Forest 27

Projected Total Points: 54

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	01/02	Mississippi State	29	Wake Forest	43	Mississippi State -3	Wake Forest	52.5	Over
2011	12/30	Wake Forest	17	Mississippi State	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	1	0	1 Overs
Wake Forest	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

Wake Forest Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Mayo Bowl	Wake Forest vs Mississippi State	+3.0	52.5	W 43 - 29
2022	Gasparilla Bowl	Wake Forest vs Missouri	-3.0	59.0	W 27 - 17
2021	Gator Bowl	Wake Forest vs Rutgers	-17.0	63.0	W 38 - 10
2020	Mayo Bowl	Wake Forest vs Wisconsin	+7.0	51.5	L 28 - 42
2019	Pinstripe Bowl	Wake Forest vs Michigan State	+3.5	50.5	L 21 - 27

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2025	Mayo Bowl	Mississippi State vs Wake Forest	-3.0	52.5	L 29 - 43
2022	Reliaquest Bowl	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10
2021	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34
2020	Forces Bowl	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26
2019	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38

(#48) WAKE at (#38) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WAKE	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#48	#38
SP+SP+	#52	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#63	#105
OffenseOff	#103	#84
DefenseDef	#28	#119
Spec TeamsST	#11	#77
TalentTal	#35	#40
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#27

Wake Forest Notes(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report

Wake Forest on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#103	#119
SuccessSuc	#81	#133
ExplosiveExp	#111	#18
PPAPPA	#104	#130
PowerPwr	#75	#44
SP+SP+	#70	#84
Pts POPPO	#121	#113
HavocHav	#82	#134

Wake Forest Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#99	#113
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#108
Run ExplRExp	#88	#13
PPAExp	#106	#80
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#79	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#114
TackleTak	-	#96

Wake Forest Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#100	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#134
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#48
PPAExp	#83	#134
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#16	#132
F7 HavocF7	#70	#133
DB HavocDB	#93	#123

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	WAKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#84	#28
SuccessSuc	#109	#134
ExplosiveExp	#6	#12
PPAPPA	#78	#118
PowerPwr	#24	#18
SP+SP+	#39	#34
Pts POPPO	#86	#99
HavocHav	#127	#130

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#68	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#105	#110
Run ExplRExp	#28	#58
PPAExp	#92	#101
Run BlockR Blk	#98	-
OL YdsOLY	#93	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#44	#98
TackleTak	-	#91

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#43	#23
Pass SuccessPSuc	#104	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#2
PPAExp	#76	#116
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#26
F7 HavocF7	#122	#110
DB HavocDB	#116	#131

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bank of America Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State -3.0 (52.5)
Wake Forest won at Mississippi State this year (43-29)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat Mississippi State last year (43-29)

WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)	191	322	59%	2472	12	8	7.7
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)	41	82	50%	618	6	3	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	179	905	10	5.1	85
Robby Ashford (Tr)	130	554	9	4.3	43
Ty Clark III	75	323	3	4.3	15
Chris Barnes (Tr)	13	143	0	11.0	78

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)	40	611	3	15.3	93
Chris Barnes (Tr)	39	547	3	14.0	70
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)	30	416	2	13.9	51
Sawyer Racanelli (Tr)	18	315	1	17.5	62

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Andersen	107	7	2	0	7
Davaughn Patterson	80	4	0	4	9
Dylan Hazen	73	9	0	5	3
Aiden Hall	73	8	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Hardy (Tr)	65	15	7	9	0
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)	39	9	6	8	0
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)	37	9	5	4	0
Dallas Afalava (Tr)	33	6	4	8	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davaughn Patterson	80	4	0	4	9
Karon Prunty (Tr)	40	2	1	1	8
Nick Andersen	107	7	2	0	7

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Shapen	195	304	64%	2436	15	8	8.0
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)	142	677	6	4.8	43
Davon Booth	136	552	7	4.1	22
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)	57	1054	6	18.5	58
Anthony Evans III (Tr)	67	831	4	12.4	57
Seydou Traore	35	372	5	10.6	55
Ayden Williams (Tr)	21	252	0	12.0	49

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahron Manning (Tr)	91	4	0	0	5
Nic Mitchell	78	5	3	2	0
Brylan Lanier	67	3	1	0	2
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Mitchell	78	5	3	2	0
Will Whitson (Tr)	8	5	2	0	0
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)	21	2	2	3	1
Malick Sylla (Tr)	33	7	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Jahron Manning (Tr)	91	4	0	5
DeAgo Brumfeld	36	1	1	4