Wake Forest at Mississippi State - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wake Forest logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Friday, January 2nd 2026 (8:00 PM EST)
Mississippi State -3 (53.5) (-162)  Open: -3.0 | 56.5
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC  (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

 
Demon Deacons (8 - 4) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Wake Forest -2  (SP+ WAKE -0.5)

Projected Score: WAKE: 29 - MSST: 27 (55)
MSST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WAKE Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 5) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.053.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Mississippi State at Southern Miss-11.559.5W 34 - 17UY
Sat 9/6 Mississippi State vs Arizona State+6.058.5W 24 - 20UY
Sat 9/13 Mississippi State vs Alcorn State-42.556.5W 63 - 0OY
Sat 9/20 Mississippi State vs Northern Illinois-23.548.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 9/27 Mississippi State vs Tennessee+7.563.5L 34 - 41OY
Sat 10/4 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+17.557.5L 9 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Mississippi State at Florida+9.550.5L 21 - 23UY
Sat 10/25 Mississippi State vs Texas+8.548.5L 38 - 45OY
Sat 11/1 Mississippi State at Arkansas+5.566.5W 38 - 35OY
Sat 11/8 Mississippi State vs Georgia+9.556.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/15 Mississippi State at Missouri+7.550.5L 27 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/28 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+7.562.5L 19 - 38UN
Fri 1/2 Mississippi State vs Wake Forest-3.053.5

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 5, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#91 (.13)38% (117)26.839% (107)2.74 (108)15737% (115)2323.16 (119)#7 (.02)35% (10)21.537% (13)33% (8)3.19 (32)68.91.71.3
MSST#86 (.15)42% (73)30.545% (54)2.82 (92)16139% (99)2374.49 (19)#104 (.21)44% (103)29.248% (124)41% (60)3.64 (66)61.81.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Offense1226.824.837.9%3.161.7193891572324.550%48%39%37%16%.13
MSST Defense1229.227.944.2%3.641.4 - - - - - 53%45%48%41%14%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Defense1221.527.434.9%3.191.3 - - - - - 46%52%37%33%18%.02
MSST Offense1230.533.941.9%4.491.3223981612373.853%46%45%39%18%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wake Forest1228:5218.738%55%7.368.91.71.37.32.1230.9
Mississippi State1228:4221.844%48%7.361.81.31.44.51.7028.8
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense1250% (62)39% (107)34.8156.84.521 (49).11 (70)2.74 (108)77% (36)10% (77)1.16 (10)
MSST Defense1253% (105)48% (124) - - - - .16 (99)3.42 (135)74% (94)8% (120)0.89 (32)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense1246% (23)37% (13) - - - - -.01 (13)2.47 (11)63% (16)12% (12)0.89 (31)
MSST Offense1253% (40)45% (54)42.3161.43.828 (16).12 (64)2.82 (92)71% (72)12% (125)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense1248% (74)37% (115)17.731.1232.37.513.215 (106)10 (34).22 (84)1.7 (26)33% (89)27% (105).28 (78)6% (84)2.2 (15)
MSST Defense1245% (31)41% (60) - - - - - - 12 (6).28 (83)1.7 (114)29% (104)30% (74).33 (88)6% (64)2.2 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense1252% (108)33% (8) - - - - - - 4 (100).09 (10)1.5 (55)36% (14)27% (25).16 (15)7% (46)2 (66)
MSST Offense1246% (91)39% (99)18.930.32377.812.519 (75)9 (60).2 (95)1.7 (16)34% (115)30% (70).35 (51)7% (94)2.3 (7)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 11.13  #39
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 5.97  #86
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: -5.16  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #56
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 11.13   Mississippi State: 6.005

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 4.4   Mississippi State: 3.8




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 6.005  #48
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 15.96  #34
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 7.75  #67
2025 Talent Rating: 844.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 19  #27
Mississippi State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
Mississippi State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #42
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #76

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 951.5
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Wake Forest 29
Mississippi State 27


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
Wake Forest 34
Mississippi State 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 28
Wake Forest 27

Total Points: 55
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201112/30Wake Forest17Mississippi State23
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State100 Overs
Wake Forest000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

Wake Forest Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Gasparilla Bowl Wake Forest vs Missouri-3.059.0W 27 - 17
2021Gator Bowl Wake Forest vs Rutgers-17.063.0W 38 - 10
2020Mayo Bowl Wake Forest vs Wisconsin+7.051.5L 28 - 42
2019Pinstripe Bowl Wake Forest vs Michigan State+3.550.5L 21 - 27
Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Reliaquest Bowl Mississippi State vs Illinois-3.546.5W 19 - 10
2021Liberty Bowl Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34
2020Forces Bowl Mississippi State vs Tulsa+2.548.0W 28 - 26
2019City Bowl Mississippi State vs Louisville-5.064.5L 28 - 38
  
(#39) WAKE at (#48) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWAKEMSST
Power RatePwr #39 #48
SP+SP+ #56 #58
Perf GradeGrade #62 #102
OffenseOff #113 #94
DefenseDef #18 #105
Spec TeamsST #10 #84
TalentTal #35 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #27
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
Mississippi State Notes
(12/6) DC Coleman Hutzler fired after 2 seasons
(11/16) Run Def is awful. 300+ to Mizzu. Rebs will run wild
(10/23) Now 1-12 vs P4 teams since start of '24
(9/29) RT Albert Reese IV inj vs Tenn, ? for A&M
(9/26) Hot start, huge W vs ASU. Shapen looks sharp so far
(9/8) Starting DE Will Whitson out for season, big
(8/30) Shapen good, Run Off better, Def better
(5/23) WR huge ? Top 6 are portals? 4 best LY left
(5/23) Added 5 portal OL post spring. Bad sign?
(5/23) Talent #'s of a mid B12 team, and dropping
(5/7) Def 39 ppg, 7 ypp allowed in SEC play LY
(5/2) TE Seydou Traore a good, reliable target
Mississippi State Injury Report
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffMSST Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #105
SuccessSuc #117 #103
ExplosiveExp #5 #60
PPAPPA #91 #104
PowerPwr #86 #67
SP+SP+ #82 #76
Pts POPPO #119 #66
HavocHav #86 #107
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #117 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #124
Run ExplRExp #10 #32
PPAExp #70 #99
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #135
Stuff RateStuff #74 #124
TackleTak -  #95
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #104 #79
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #60
Pass ExplPExl #26 #114
PPAExp #84 #83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #127
F7 HavocF7 #77 #120
DB HavocDB #84 #64
Mississippi State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffWAKE Def
Perf GradePerf #94 #18
SuccessSuc #73 #10
ExplosiveExp #43 #45
PPAPPA #86 #7
PowerPwr #34 #14
SP+SP+ #42 #34
Pts POPPO #19 #32
HavocHav #120 #20
Mississippi State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
MSST OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #74 #51
Run SuccessRSuc #54 #13
Run ExplRExp #65 #31
PPAExp #64 #13
Run BlockR Blk #107 -
OL YdsOLY #92 #11
Stuff RateStuff #79 #4
TackleTak -  #83
Mississippi State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCatMSST OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #54 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #99 #8
Pass ExplPExl #16 #55
PPAExp #95 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #80 #20
F7 HavocF7 #125 #12
DB HavocDB #94 #46
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bank of America Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 51°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)17128959%2169977.5
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)11650474.343
Ty Clark III5823234.015
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)34538315.893
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)25382215.351
Micah Mays Jr.18302216.852

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen956107
Davaughn Patterson784039
Dylan Hazen689053
Aiden Hall667023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515780
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)378680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)328440
Mateen Ibirogba214230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson784039
Karon Prunty (Tr)341018
Nick Andersen956107

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Shapen19530464%24361588.0
Kamario Taylor305555%388417.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Fluff Bothwell (Tr)12863965.043
Davon Booth13655274.122
Kamario Taylor6439576.239
Xavier Gayten2414926.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brenen Thompson (Tr)53948617.958
Anthony Evans III (Tr)63751411.957
Seydou Traore34361510.655
Ayden Williams (Tr)19222011.749

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Coleman Hutzler (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
Nic Mitchell725320
Brylan Lanier653102
Isaac Smith641103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Mitchell725320
Darron Reed Jr. (Tr)212231
Will Whitson (Tr)85200
Kalvin Dinkins253200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kelley Jones3000011
Jahron Manning (Tr)853004
DeAgo Brumfeld331014