Mississippi State at Vanderbilt - 2021 Matchup Preview
Mississippi State logo   Mississippi State Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores  Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -21 (53.0)
Mississippi State 45 - Vanderbilt: 6  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Leach (6 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
VAN is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -12.5  (SP+ MSST -30)
Projected Score: MSST: 25 - VAN: 36 (61)
MSST Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
MSST Travel: 217 miles
Commodores (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech-20.552.5W 35 - 34ON
Sat 9/11 Mississippi State vs NC State+1.555.0W 24 - 10UY
Sat 9/18 Mississippi State at Memphis-3.063.0L 29 - 31UN
Sat 9/25 Mississippi State vs LSU+1.554.5L 25 - 28UN
Sat 10/2 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+7.045.5W 26 - 22OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 Mississippi State vs Alabama+17.559.5L 9 - 49UN
Sat 10/23 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt-21.053.0W 45 - 6UY
Sat 10/30 Mississippi State vs Kentucky-1.047.0W 31 - 17OY
Sat 11/6 Mississippi State at Arkansas+4.054.0L 28 - 31OY
Sat 11/13 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.051.0W 43 - 34OY
Sat 11/20 Mississippi State vs Tennessee State-44.056.5W 55 - 10OY
Thu 11/25 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-2.565.0L 21 - 31UN
Tue 12/28 Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.058.5L 7 - 34UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State-21.045.0L 3 - 23UN
Sat 9/11 Vanderbilt at Colorado State+6.552.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 9/18 Vanderbilt vs Stanford+13.049.0L 23 - 41ON
Sat 9/25 Vanderbilt vs Georgia+36.054.5L 0 - 62ON
Sat 10/2 Vanderbilt vs UConn-14.551.5W 30 - 28ON
Sat 10/9 Vanderbilt at Florida+39.060.5L 0 - 42UN
Sat 10/16 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+19.050.0L 20 - 21UY
Sat 10/23 Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State+21.053.0L 6 - 45UN
Sat 10/30 Vanderbilt vs Missouri+16.062.5L 28 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky+21.552.5L 17 - 34UY
Sat 11/20 Vanderbilt at Ole Miss+35.566.5L 17 - 31UY
Sat 11/27 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+33.065.0L 21 - 45OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.0541%30.447%34440%2962.9.1141%30.242%40%3.1860.22.31.5
VAN.0739%38.536%2.610941%2202.43.3954%22.851%56%4.0538.11.91.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1130.425.841.2%2.92.319340442962.423%77%47%40%20%.05
VAN Defense922.821.153.9%4.051.1 - - - - - 43%57%51%56%12%.39
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1130.23141.1%3.181.5 - - - - - 47%53%42%40%16%.11
VAN Offense938.54438.7%2.431.920329109220350%50%36%41%18%.07

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1130:5418.832%57%6.560.22.31.55.52.3227.6
Vanderbilt929:402040%60%4.738.11.91.13.71.4025.6
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1123%47%18.544.12.48.06374%9%0.76
VAN Defense943%51% - - - - .243.2374%7%1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1147%42% - - - - .042.8165%9%0.85
VAN Offense950%36%36.7108.934-.032.673%12%0.77

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1177%40%33.950.6296.35.98.71718.051.231%28%.2311%2.2
VAN Defense957%56% - - - - - - 2.511.427%36%.445%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1153%40% - - - - - - 10.181.730%31%.347%2.3
VAN Offense950%41%21.333.3219.96.610.31311.181.533%27%.216%1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.5  #34
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.6  #28
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0  #33

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State:    Vanderbilt: -7.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 10.5   Vanderbilt: -19.4




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -7.2 NR
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: NR
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Vanderbilt's 2021 Expected Record: -
Vanderbilt's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.4  #123
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #125
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.6  #116

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Vanderbilt 36
Mississippi State 25

Projected Total Points: 61
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202110/23Vanderbilt6Mississippi State45Mississippi State -21Mississippi State53.0Under
202011/07Mississippi State24Vanderbilt17Mississippi State -18.5Vanderbilt45.0Under
201411/22Mississippi State51Vanderbilt0Mississippi State -30.5Mississippi State0
200909/19Vanderbilt3Mississippi State15
200810/11Mississippi State17Vanderbilt14
200410/02Vanderbilt31Mississippi State13
200310/04Mississippi State30Vanderbilt21
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt110 Overs
Mississippi State622 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 21 - 21 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 52 - 11 - 01 - 1

(#) MSST at (#) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTVAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #34 #123
Perf GradeGrade #65 #131
OffenseOff #65 #127
DefenseDef #64 #121
Spec TeamsST #75 #125
TalentTal #29 #57
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffVAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #65 #121
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #28 #116
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #119 #116
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #118
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #9 #111
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #5 #133
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Vanderbilt on Offense
CategoryCatVAN OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #64
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #125 #33
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Vanderbilt Run Game
CategoryCat
VAN OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #97 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #106 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #53
Vanderbilt Pass Game
CategoryCatVAN OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #129 #46
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #121 #89
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Poor G5

MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Mississippi State 21.0 (53.0)
Mississippi State won at Vanderbilt this year (45-6)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

VAN's OC David Raih (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Jesse Minter (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD