Missouri at Mississippi State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Davis Wade Stadium - Starkville, MS (SEC)

Tigers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (46 - 29)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (18 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#29)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)

MSST is playing their 4th straight game
MIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -12 (SP+ MIZ -10.5)
Projected Score: MIZ: 32 - MSST: 20 (51)
MIZ Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
MIZ Travel: 427 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Lebby (7 - 18)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#77)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 6) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
MIZ Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Missouri vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-42
Sat 9/12	Missouri at Kansas	-12.5
Sat 9/19	Missouri vs Troy	-29
Sat 9/26	Missouri at Mississippi State	-12
Sat 10/3	Missouri vs Florida	-12
Sat 10/10	Missouri vs Texas A&M	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Missouri at Ole Miss	+6.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Missouri at Arkansas	-11
Sat 11/7	Missouri vs Texas	+1
Sat 11/14	Missouri at Georgia	+10.5
Sat 11/21	Missouri vs Kentucky	-17
Sat 11/28	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+1

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Mississippi State vs UL Monroe	-25
Sat 9/12	Mississippi State at Minnesota	+4.5
Sat 9/19	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+7
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+12
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State at LSU	+17
Sat 10/24	Mississippi State vs Oklahoma	+15.5
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Texas	+20.5
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	+9.5
Sat 11/14	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+8.5
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech	-28
Fri 11/27	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+20.5

Total: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 6, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#50 (.2)	45% (42)	30.2	48% (21)	3.12 (37)	228	42% (64)	188	3.85 (56)	#11 (.04)	35% (7)	18.9	36% (8)	35% (12)	3.36 (40)	51.2	1.3	0.9
MSST	#90 (.14)	42% (86)	30.4	44% (62)	2.81 (95)	158	39% (102)	241	4.41 (22)	#110 (.22)	44% (102)	30.2	48% (124)	40% (56)	3.68 (69)	61.6	1.2	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	17.5	44.8%	3.85	1.3	23	417	228	188	5.3	55%	43%	48%	42%	13%	.2
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	44.2%	3.68	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	48%	40%	14%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	17	34.6%	3.36	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	36%	35%	20%	.04
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	41.5%	4.41	1.2	22	399	158	241	3.7	53%	46%	44%	39%	18%	.14

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	31:51	23.1	45%	59%	5.5	51.2	1.3	0.9	6.9	2.8	4	28.1
Mississippi State	13	28:41	21.6	43%	45%	7.2	61.6	1.2	1.4	4.3	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	55% (31)	48% (21)	42.8	228.5	5.3	31 (4)	.23 (15)	3.12 (37)	89% (1)	9% (47)	1.08 (26)
MSST Defense	13	53% (103)	48% (124)	-	-	-	-	.16 (97)	3.41 (135)	77% (108)	8% (121)	0.89 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	47% (41)	36% (8)	-	-	-	-	.01 (20)	2.64 (23)	69% (50)	12% (10)	0.95 (66)
MSST Offense	13	53% (42)	44% (62)	42.3	157.8	3.7	29 (16)	.11 (71)	2.81 (95)	72% (72)	12% (125)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	43% (108)	42% (64)	17.6	27.8	188.4	6.8	10.7	15 (50)	11 (108)	.18 (108)	1.4 (115)	29% (35)	31% (61)	.28 (77)	4% (15)	2.1 (29)
MSST Defense	13	46% (36)	40% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (6)	.3 (91)	1.7 (124)	30% (100)	31% (83)	.38 (110)	6% (69)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	51% (98)	35% (12)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (75)	.1 (14)	1.6 (82)	35% (20)	28% (35)	.27 (60)	7% (14)	2.1 (82)
MSST Offense	13	46% (92)	39% (102)	18.7	30	241.4	8.1	12.9	20 (75)	9 (60)	.21 (93)	1.7 (18)	34% (117)	28% (85)	.3 (71)	6% (81)	2.3 (7)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 22.96 #16
Missouri's Offense Rating: 20.52 #22
Missouri's Defense Rating: 2.56 #13
2026 Talent Rating: 922.00 #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 27% #21
Missouri's 2026 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Missouri's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.4 #21
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #47
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #10

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 22.96 Mississippi State: 6.835

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 14.4 Mississippi State: 4.1

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 6.835 #59
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 16.28 #40
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 16.71 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 904.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 13 #30
Mississippi State's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Mississippi State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #39
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #84

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 996.13
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Missouri's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 32
Mississippi State 20

Projected Total Points: 51

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Missouri	49	Mississippi State	27	Missouri -7.5	Missouri	50.5	Over
2024	11/23	Mississippi State	20	Missouri	39	Missouri -9.5	Missouri	58.0	Over
2020	12/19	Mississippi State	51	Missouri	32	Missouri -1.5	Mississippi State	49.0	Over
2015	11/05	Missouri	13	Mississippi State	31	Mississippi State -7.5	Mississippi State	41.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	2	2	4 Overs
Missouri	2	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1

(#16) MIZ at (#59) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#16	#59
SP+SP+	#21	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#28	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#30

Missouri Notes(2/17) Vibes: Good, LY a step back but '26 looks exciting
(2/2) Did not beat team w winning record LY.
(1/29) New OC hire of Chip Lindsey? Not a fan
(1/29) QB Horn back from inj, Simmons (Miss) added
(1/29) RB loaded w Hardy & Roberts + Edwards (1k FCS)
(1/29) WR rebuild w 5 portals. Lee (Ole Miss) great add
(1/29) OL: 2 back + 5 portal adds, OT Green tops in CFB
(1/29) DL lost a ton, 6 portal adds. Biggest ? on roster
(1/29) DBs 6 portal adds, 1 starter, COV grades lacking
Missouri Injury Report

Mississippi State Notes(2/17) Vibes: Uneven, hopeful on Off but 1-15 in SEC
(3/5) Rumor is OT Brandon Sneh is ineligible? Big loss
(2/2) DC Arnett back (HC in '23). Good DC hire
(2/2) QB Taylor is electric, pot star. Swann has exp
(2/2) RB looks avg. Fluff decent, not sure what else
(2/2) WR has Evans and some good parts. Decent unit
(2/2) OL lost 8, added 8 via portal (2 starters). Huge ?
(2/2) DL was awful LY, added some but not enough
(2/2) LBs have exp but none played well. Don't see it
(2/2) DBs return 2 good starters, added 2. Best Def unit
Mississippi State Injury Report

Missouri on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#42	#102
ExplosiveExp	#86	#71
PPAPPA	#50	#110
PowerPwr	#22	#74
SP+SP+	#47	#84
Pts POPPO	#56	#69
HavocHav	#23	#110

Missouri Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#21	#124
Run ExplRExp	#26	#31
PPAExp	#15	#97
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#37	#135
Stuff RateStuff	#45	#126
TackleTak	-	NR

Missouri Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#64	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#124
PPAExp	#108	#91
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#47	#121
DB HavocDB	#15	#69

Mississippi State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#86	#7
ExplosiveExp	#45	#73
PPAPPA	#90	#11
PowerPwr	#40	#13
SP+SP+	#39	#10
Pts POPPO	#22	#40
HavocHav	#117	#8

Mississippi State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#8
Run ExplRExp	#68	#66
PPAExp	#71	#20
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#95	#23
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#37
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MSST Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#12
Pass ExplPExl	#18	#82
PPAExp	#93	#14
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#125	#10
DB HavocDB	#81	#14

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Mississippi State last year (49-27)
Missouri beat Mississippi State in 2024 (39-20)

MIZ's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Matt Zollers	47	88	53%	503	4	2	5.7
Austin Simmons (Tr)	45	75	60%	744	4	5	9.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ahmad Hardy	256	1649	16	6.4	72
Xai'Shaun Edwards (Tr)	194	1019	12	5.3	60
Jamal Roberts	124	753	6	6.1	63
Malae Fonoti (Tr)	48	184	4	3.8	12

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cayden Lee (Tr)	44	635	3	14.4	62
Caleb Goodie (Tr)	29	484	2	16.7	82
Donovan Olugbode	30	401	2	13.4	34
Brett Norfleet	31	254	5	8.2	27

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Robert Woodyard Jr. (Tr)	67	7	2	5	1
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Santana Banner	59	1	0	0	3
Chris Graves	33	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darris Smith	15	6	5	11	2
Robert Woodyard Jr. (Tr)	67	7	2	5	1
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	0	7
Kensley Louidor-Faustin (Tr)	20	3	1	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nicholas Rodriguez	61	4	2	7
Chris Graves	33	1	0	4
Santana Banner	59	1	0	3

MSST's OC Jeff Lebby (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann (Tr)	130	222	59%	1494	10	8	6.7
Kamario Taylor	43	77	56%	629	5	1	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	142	677	6	4.8	43
Kamario Taylor	82	458	8	5.6	39
Xavier Gayten	29	157	2	5.4	25
Brinston Williams	26	137	1	5.3	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Evans III	67	831	4	12.4	57
Marquis Johnson (Tr)	28	345	2	12.3	49
Ayden Williams	21	252	0	12.0	49
Fluff Bothwell	14	105	0	7.5	39

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Smith	64	1	1	0	3
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	0	1	5
Jalen Smith	57	2	0	2	1
Zakari Tillman	47	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darron Reed Jr.	21	2	2	3	1
Will Whitson	8	5	2	0	0
Kalvin Dinkins	27	3	2	0	0
Derion Gullette	38	2	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kelley Jones	34	0	0	11
Quentin Taylor Jr. (Tr)	27	2	0	5
Marcus Williams (Tr)	61	4	1	5