Mississippi State at Illinois - 2022 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Illinois Fighting Illini

Monday, January 2nd 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Mississippi State -3.5 (46.5) (-115) Open: 0.0 | 46.0
Mississippi State 19 - Illinois: 10 (ReliaQuest Bowl)

Bulldogs (9 - 4) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Mike Leach (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ ILL -1)
Projected Score: MSST: 24 - ILL: 31 (55)
MSST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
MSST Travel: 532 miles, 1 hrs behind

Fighting Illini (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
MSST Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Mississippi State vs Memphis	-17.0	58.0	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Mississippi State at Arizona	-11.5	57.5	W 39 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Mississippi State at LSU	-3.0	53.0	L 16 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/24	Mississippi State vs Bowling Green	-31.0	53.0	W 45 - 14	O	N
Sat 10/1	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	-4.0	45.0	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-8.0	55.5	W 40 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Mississippi State at Kentucky	-3.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/22	Mississippi State at Alabama	+21.5	61.5	L 6 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	Mississippi State vs Auburn	-12.5	50.5	W 39 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/12	Mississippi State vs Georgia	+16.5	53.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/19	Mississippi State vs East Tennessee State	-39.0	62.5	W 56 - 7	O	Y
Thu 11/24	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+2.5	63.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Mon 1/2	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

Illinois's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	Illinois vs Wyoming	-14.0	42.5	W 38 - 6	O	Y
Fri 9/2	Illinois at Indiana	+1.0	47.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/10	Illinois vs Virginia	-4.0	55.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 9/22	Illinois vs Chattanooga	-20.0	44.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Illinois at Wisconsin	+6.5	43.0	W 34 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/8	Illinois vs Iowa	-3.5	36.5	W 9 - 6	U	N
Sat 10/15	Illinois vs Minnesota	+4.5	40.0	W 26 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Illinois at Nebraska	-7.5	50.5	W 26 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Illinois vs Michigan State	-16.5	41.0	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/12	Illinois vs Purdue	-6.0	44.0	L 24 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/19	Illinois at Michigan	+17.0	41.5	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Illinois at Northwestern	-15.0	38.0	W 41 - 3	O	Y
Mon 1/2	Illinois vs Mississippi State	+3.5	46.5	L 10 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	.24	50%	30.4	50%	3.12	63	50%	378	4.06	.18	39%	30.2	40%	39%	3.98	58.5	1.3	1.3
ILL	.13	40%	29.4	45%	3.38	174	33%	156	3.16	.18	44%	23.6	45%	42%	3.34	52.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	13	30.4	25.8	49.9%	4.06	1.3	25	441	63	378	3	24%	76%	50%	50%	14%	.24
ILL Defense	12	23.6	14.4	43.6%	3.34	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	45%	42%	15%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	13	30.2	31	39.4%	3.98	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	40%	39%	15%	.18
ILL Offense	12	29.4	31.3	39.7%	3.16	1	18	330	174	156	4.5	59%	41%	45%	33%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	13	33:38	25.4	46%	63%	7.6	58.5	1.3	1.3	5.4	2.2	1	29.7
Illinois	12	29:11	17.6	38%	38%	5	52.8	1	1.6	5.7	2.5	0	28

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	13	24%	50%	20.8	63.2	3	10	.08	3.12	79%	8%	0.71
ILL Defense	12	52%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.21	78%	9%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.87	73%	10%	0.95
ILL Offense	12	59%	45%	39	173.6	4.5	12	.15	3.38	86%	9%	0.87

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	13	76%	50%	39.8	54.2	378.3	7	9.5	37	9	.3	1.2	29%	39%	.45	7%	1.9
ILL Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.26	1.4	31%	27%	.18	6%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	13	53%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.27	1.7	33%	29%	.32	5%	2
ILL Offense	12	41%	33%	13.8	26.8	156.2	5.8	11.4	13	6	.12	1.7	34%	25%	.15	7%	1.8

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Mississippi State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.4 #19
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #32
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #30

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: Illinois: 7.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: 15.4 Illinois: 15.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 7.95 NR
Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Illinois's 2022 Expected Record: -
Illinois's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.9 #17
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #98
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 5.5 #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 31
Mississippi State 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	01/02	Illinois	10	Mississippi State	19	Mississippi State -3.5	Mississippi State	46.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	0	0	0 Overs
Mississippi State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

Mississippi State Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Reliaquest Bowl	Mississippi State vs Illinois	-3.5	46.5	W 19 - 10
2021	Liberty Bowl	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0	58.5	L 7 - 34
2020	Forces Bowl	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26
2019	City Bowl	Mississippi State vs Louisville	-5.0	64.5	L 28 - 38
2018	Outback Bowl	Mississippi State vs Iowa	-7.0	40.0	L 22 - 27
2017	N/A	Mississippi State vs Louisville	+6.5	62.0	W 31 - 27
2016	Petersburg Bowl	Mississippi State vs Miami (OH)	-11.5	58.0	W 17 - 16

Illinois Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2022	Reliaquest Bowl	Illinois vs Mississippi State	+3.5	46.5	L 10 - 19
2019	Redbox Bowl	Illinois vs California	+6.0	47.5	L 20 - 35

(#) MSST at (#) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#19	#17
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#8
OffenseOff	#78	#24
DefenseDef	#66	#4
Spec TeamsST	#1	#56
TalentTal	#29	#56
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Mississippi State Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#78	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#3
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#48	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#30

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#56	#3
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#66
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#98	#30
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#51	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#61

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#17
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

MSST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'22 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Mississippi State 3.5 (46.5)
Mississippi State won at Illinois this year (19-10)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MSST's OC Mike Leach (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Zach Arnett (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Ryan Walters (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD