Mississippi State at South Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
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Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks

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Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Carolina -6 (46.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
South Carolina 37 - Mississippi State: 30  (SEC)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Zach Arnett (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (26 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
SC is playing their 4th straight game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Carolina -7  (SP+ SC -4)
Projected Score: MSST: 21 - SC: 28 (50)
SC Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MSST Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gamecocks (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shane Beamer (16 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 22 (25 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#92)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana-31.559.5W 48 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Mississippi State vs Arizona-9.060.0W 31 - 24UN
Sat 9/16 Mississippi State vs LSU+9.554.0L 14 - 41ON
Sat 9/23 Mississippi State at South Carolina+6.046.5L 30 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Mississippi State vs Alabama+16.545.0L 17 - 40ON
Sat 10/7 Mississippi State vs Western Michigan-21.554.5W 41 - 28ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Mississippi State at Arkansas+6.546.5W 7 - 3UY
Sat 10/28 Mississippi State at Auburn+6.540.0L 13 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Mississippi State vs Kentucky+5.544.5L 3 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Mississippi State at Texas A&M+16.540.5L 10 - 51ON
Sat 11/18 Mississippi State vs Southern Miss-18.547.5W 41 - 20OY
Thu 11/23 Mississippi State vs Ole Miss+11.056.0L 7 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
South Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 South Carolina vs North Carolina-2.563.5L 17 - 31UN
Sat 9/9 South Carolina vs Furman-18.052.5W 47 - 21OY
Sat 9/16 South Carolina at Georgia+27.054.5L 14 - 24UY
Sat 9/23 South Carolina vs Mississippi State-6.046.5W 37 - 30OY
Sat 9/30 South Carolina at Tennessee+12.059.0L 20 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 South Carolina vs Florida+1.050.0L 39 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 South Carolina at Missouri+7.557.5L 12 - 34UN
Sat 10/28 South Carolina at Texas A&M+17.051.5L 17 - 30UY
Sat 11/4 South Carolina vs Jacksonville State-15.555.0W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/11 South Carolina vs Vanderbilt-13.553.5W 47 - 6UY
Sat 11/18 South Carolina vs Kentucky-2.552.5W 17 - 14UY
Sat 11/25 South Carolina vs Clemson+7.548.0L 7 - 16UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST.1946%30.445%2.968247%3104.23.0939%30.241%38%3.5360.81.51.9
SC.2342%22.743%2.912041%2604.54.1945%22.152%39%4.1262.62.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Offense1330.425.846.2%4.231.523393823103.630%70%45%47%16%.19
SC Defense1322.120.645.5%4.122 - - - - - 53%46%52%39%16%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSST Defense1330.23139.2%3.531.9 - - - - - 46%53%41%38%18%.09
SC Offense1322.724.941.6%4.542.1193801202603.846%54%43%41%19%.23

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Mississippi State1329:5822.839%52%6.360.81.51.96.42.4531.7
South Carolina1328:4018.939%62%6.862.62.124.31.5530.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Offense1330%45%22.882.43.612.122.9660%8%0.89
SC Defense1353%52% - - - - .263.4885%8%0.91
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSST Defense1346%41% - - - - .142.7959%11%1.04
SC Offense1346%43%31.5119.63.827.152.968%14%1.02

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Offense1370%47%32.848.8310.46.49.5369.221.227%30%.318%2
SC Defense1346%39% - - - - - - 15.191.630%34%.48%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSST Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 14.11.634%28%.096%1.9
SC Offense1354%41%21.632.2259.98.1122314.321.832%32%.485%2.4

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49  #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46  #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96  #85
2023 Talent Rating: 746.29  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 21%  #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4  #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49   South Carolina: 4.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4   South Carolina: 3.4




South Carolina's Power Ratings
South Carolina's Power Rating: 4.905  #56
South Carolina's Offense Rating: 16.50  #66
South Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.58  #94
2023 Talent Rating: 763.02  #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 35  #22
South Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 6.70
South Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4  #54
South Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #58
South Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #60

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
South Carolina 28
Mississippi State 21

Projected Total Points: 50
South Carolina Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.9
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

South Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/23South Carolina37Mississippi State30South Carolina -6South Carolina46.5Over
201609/10Mississippi State27South Carolina14Mississippi State -9.5Mississippi State50.5Under
201311/02South Carolina34Mississippi State16South Carolina -11.5South Carolina0
201110/15Mississippi State12South Carolina14
200709/29South Carolina38Mississippi State21
200608/31Mississippi State0South Carolina15
200210/05South Carolina34Mississippi State10
200109/20Mississippi State14South Carolina16
200009/22South Carolina23Mississippi State19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Carolina821 Overs
Mississippi State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 33 - 03 - 00 - 0
Road Teams3 - 60 - 30 - 00 - 3

(#84) MSST at (#56) SC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMSSTSC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #84 #56
SP+SP+ #66 #54
Perf GradeGrade #76 #94
OffenseOff #86 #97
DefenseDef #71 #95
Spec TeamsST #24 #93
TalentTal #28 #22
Blue ChipsBC% #32 #22
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #86 #95
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #120 #94
SP+SP+ #78 #60
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
Run GameRun #62 #87
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #71 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #24
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffSC Def
Pass GamePass #76 #109
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #49 #45
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
South Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatSC OffMSST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #71
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #66 #85
SP+SP+ #58 #55
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
South Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
SC OffMSST Def
Run GameRun #102 #76
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #123 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
South Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatSC OffMSST Def
Pass GamePass #45 #51
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #107 #125
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
SC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams-Brice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
South Carolina -6.0 (46.5)
South Carolina won vs Mississippi State this year (37-30)

Previous Matchups
South Carolina beat Mississippi State in 2023 (37-30)

  
MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Rogers14223760%16261246.9
Mike Wright (Tr)488557%453335.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jo'quavious Marks12157344.752
Seth Davis5935616.046
Mike Wright (Tr)7132434.653
Jeffery Pittman5426815.059
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)50658413.265
Zavion Thomas40503112.635
Justin Robinson21257012.230
Jo'quavious Marks2316727.332

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Decamerion Richardson791107
Corey Ellington664202
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nathaniel Watson137131072
Jett Johnson13014641
Jaden Crumedy354322
Corey Ellington664202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Decamerion Richardson791107
Deonte Anderson383114
Shawn Preston Jr.595013

SC's OC Dowell Loggains (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Spencer Rattler27539969%31861988.0
Lanorris Sellers44100%862021.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mario Anderson14370734.975
Dakereon Joyner5012052.416
Spencer Rattler9810241.028
Juju McDowell266322.417
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Legette711255717.776
Trey Knox (Tr)3731228.422
Ahmarean Brown26265110.244
Joshua Simon (Tr)2825629.133

View South Carolina's Full Roster

SC's DC Clayton White (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Debo Williams1139122
Jalon Kilgore762006
DQ Smith732102
Nick Emmanwori710018
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Strachan208521
T.J. Sanders4310544
Tyreek Johnson164320
Bam Martin-Scott384221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcellas Dial3621010
Nick Emmanwori710018
Tonka Hemingway325267