Mississippi State at South Carolina

Mississippi State at South Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
South Carolina -6 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
South Carolina 37 - Mississippi State: 30 (SEC)

Bulldogs (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Greg Knox (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 27 (15 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SC is playing their 4th straight game
MSST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Carolina -7 (SP+ SC -4)
Projected Score: MSST: 21 - SC: 28 (49)
SC Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
MSST Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs behind

Gamecocks (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Shane Beamer (16 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 26 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#92)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSST Players
SC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Mississippi State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Mississippi State vs SE Louisiana	-31.5	59.5	W 48 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Mississippi State vs Arizona	-9.0	60.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/16	Mississippi State vs LSU	+9.5	54.0	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/23	Mississippi State at South Carolina	+6.0	46.5	L 30 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+16.5	45.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/7	Mississippi State vs Western Michigan	-21.5	54.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+6.5	46.5	W 7 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.5	40.0	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	+5.5	44.5	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+16.5	40.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/18	Mississippi State vs Southern Miss	-18.5	47.5	W 41 - 20	O	Y
Thu 11/23	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	+11.0	56.0	L 7 - 17	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule

South Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Carolina vs North Carolina	-2.5	63.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	South Carolina vs Furman	-18.0	52.5	W 47 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/16	South Carolina at Georgia	+27.0	54.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Carolina vs Mississippi State	-6.0	46.5	W 37 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	South Carolina at Tennessee	+12.0	59.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	South Carolina vs Florida	+1.0	50.0	L 39 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/21	South Carolina at Missouri	+7.5	57.5	L 12 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/28	South Carolina at Texas A&M	+17.0	51.5	L 17 - 30	U	Y
Sat 11/4	South Carolina vs Jacksonville State	-15.5	55.0	W 38 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/11	South Carolina vs Vanderbilt	-13.5	53.5	W 47 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	South Carolina vs Kentucky	-2.5	52.5	W 17 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	South Carolina vs Clemson	+7.5	48.0	L 7 - 16	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#116 (.09)	36% (126)	21.8	38% (123)	2.91 (105)	147	35% (120)	182	3.47 (96)	#61 (.17)	42% (71)	26.6	42% (64)	43% (84)	4.33 (115)	56.8	1.2	1
SC	#67 (.2)	41% (86)	26	38% (120)	2.81 (117)	85	43% (54)	278	4.06 (51)	#80 (.2)	44% (92)	26.3	46% (97)	43% (85)	3.42 (36)	55.1	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSST	#78 (.17)	39% (109)		40% (105)	2.9 (93)	139	38% (104)	239	3.75 (86)	#130 (.32)	50% (133)		47% (108)	55% (134)	4.32 (113)	60.3	1.5	0.9
SC	#48 (.22)	44% (58)		44% (74)	3.01 (73)	175	44% (42)	203	3.97 (62)	#15 (.08)	42% (73)		45% (93)	40% (61)	3.19 (16)	53.8	1.5	1.7

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Offense	12	21.8	15	35.9%	3.47	1.2	17	329	147	182	4.4	50%	49%	38%	35%	16%	.09
SC Defense	12	26.3	22.3	43.8%	3.42	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	46%	43%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSST Defense	12	26.6	29.5	42.3%	4.33	1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	43%	16%	.17
SC Offense	12	26	33.1	40.8%	4.06	1.1	18	363	85	278	2.8	41%	58%	38%	43%	20%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Mississippi State	12	28:40	16.6	31%	42%	6.3	56.8	1.2	1	5.6	2.3	2	29.9
South Carolina	12	28:17	18.1	34%	38%	7.1	55.1	1.1	1.4	4.6	1.8	2	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Offense	12	50% (64)	38% (123)	33.4	146.8	4.4	12 (116)	.07 (113)	2.91 (105)	59% (128)	11% (81)	1.02 (55)
SC Defense	12	50% (72)	46% (97)	-	-	-	-	.16 (79)	3.2 (93)	77% (95)	8% (115)	0.86 (17)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSST Defense	12	52% (97)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.1 (41)	2.97 (45)	74% (74)	11% (51)	0.92 (32)
SC Offense	12	41% (122)	38% (120)	30.8	85.1	2.8	17 (81)	.03 (122)	2.81 (117)	74% (73)	14% (128)	0.94 (96)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Offense	12	49% (67)	35% (120)	16.8	29	181.8	6.3	10.9	15 (96)	10 (56)	.13 (115)	1.6 (52)	36% (129)	26% (104)	.19 (106)	6% (65)	2 (98)
SC Defense	12	49% (58)	43% (85)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.31 (92)	1.6 (50)	30% (107)	29% (51)	.29 (53)	8% (14)	2.2 (114)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSST Defense	12	47% (35)	43% (84)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.29 (84)	1.6 (55)	30% (105)	29% (49)	.36 (90)	5% (107)	2 (57)
SC Offense	12	58% (12)	43% (54)	23.6	34.3	278	8.1	11.8	21 (65)	8 (30)	.33 (50)	1.6 (70)	37% (131)	30% (72)	.29 (81)	6% (81)	1.9 (111)

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: -3.49 #84
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: 10.46 #120
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: 10.96 #85
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 21% #32
Mississippi State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Mississippi State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.4 #66
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #78
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -3.49 South Carolina: 4.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Mississippi State: -0.4 South Carolina: 3.4

South Carolina's Power Ratings
South Carolina's Power Rating: 4.905 #56
South Carolina's Offense Rating: 16.50 #66
South Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.58 #94
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 35 #22
South Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 5.30 - 6.70
South Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.4 #54
South Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8 #58
South Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #60

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15
Defense: 26.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.5

Mississippi State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Carolina 28
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
South Carolina 30
Mississippi State 25

Total Points: 55

Based on Entire Season
South Carolina 29
Mississippi State 21

Total Points: 50

South Carolina Scoring
Offense: 26 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

South Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	South Carolina	37	Mississippi State	30	South Carolina -6	South Carolina	46.5	Over
2016	09/10	Mississippi State	27	South Carolina	14	Mississippi State -9.5	Mississippi State	50.5	Under
2013	11/02	South Carolina	34	Mississippi State	16	South Carolina -11.5	South Carolina	0
2011	10/15	Mississippi State	12	South Carolina	14
2007	09/29	South Carolina	38	Mississippi State	21
2006	08/31	Mississippi State	0	South Carolina	15
2002	10/05	South Carolina	34	Mississippi State	10
2001	09/20	Mississippi State	14	South Carolina	16
2000	09/22	South Carolina	23	Mississippi State	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Carolina	8	2	1 Overs
Mississippi State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 3	3 - 0	3 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 6	0 - 3	0 - 0	0 - 3

(#84) MSST at (#56) SC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSST	SC
Power RatePwr	#84	#56
SP+SP+	#66	#54
Perf GradeGrade	#76	#94
OffenseOff	#86	#97
DefenseDef	#71	#95
Spec TeamsST	#24	#93
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#32	#22

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	SC Def
Perf GradePerf	#86	#95
SuccessSuc	#126	#92
ExplosiveExp	#58	#15
PPAPPA	#116	#80
PowerPwr	#120	#94
SP+SP+	#78	#60
Pts POPPO	#96	#36
HavocHav	#76	#72

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	SC Def
Run GameRun	#62	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#97
Run ExplRExp	#55	#17
PPAExp	#113	#79
Run BlockR Blk	#71	-
OL YdsOLY	#105	#93
Stuff RateStuff	#126	#123
TackleTak	-	#24

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	SC Def
Pass GamePass	#76	#109
Pass SuccessPSuc	#120	#85
Pass ExplPExl	#52	#50
PPAExp	#115	#92
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#49	#45
F7 HavocF7	#81	#115
DB HavocDB	#65	#14

South Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	SC Off	MSST Def
Perf GradePerf	#97	#71
SuccessSuc	#86	#71
ExplosiveExp	#43	#34
PPAPPA	#67	#61
PowerPwr	#66	#85
SP+SP+	#58	#55
Pts POPPO	#51	#115
HavocHav	#123	#80

South Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	SC Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	#102	#76
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	#64
Run ExplRExp	#96	#32
PPAExp	#122	#41
Run BlockR Blk	#123	-
OL YdsOLY	#117	#45
Stuff RateStuff	#78	#39
TackleTak	-	#34

South Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	SC Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#51
Pass SuccessPSuc	#54	#84
Pass ExplPExl	#70	#55
PPAExp	#50	#84
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#107	#125
F7 HavocF7	#128	#51
DB HavocDB	#81	#107

Program Comparison
SC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams-Brice Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73°

Rematch from Week 4
South Carolina -6.0 (46.5)
South Carolina won vs Mississippi State this year (37-30)

Previous Matchups
South Carolina beat Mississippi State in 2023 (37-30)

MSST's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Will Rogers	142	237	60%	1626	12	4	6.9
Mike Wright (Tr)	48	85	57%	453	3	3	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jo'quavious Marks	121	573	4	4.7	52
Seth Davis	59	356	1	6.0	46
Mike Wright (Tr)	71	324	3	4.6	53
Jeffery Pittman	54	268	1	5.0	59

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lideatrick Griffin (Tr)	50	658	4	13.2	65
Zavion Thomas	40	503	1	12.6	35
Justin Robinson	21	257	0	12.2	30
Jo'quavious Marks	23	167	2	7.3	32

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC Matt Brock (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nathaniel Watson	137	13	10	7	2
Jett Johnson	130	14	6	4	1
Jaden Crumedy	35	4	3	2	2
Corey Ellington	66	4	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Decamerion Richardson	79	1	1	0	7
Deonte Anderson	38	3	1	1	4
Shawn Preston Jr.	59	5	0	1	3

SC's OC Dowell Loggains (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Spencer Rattler	275	399	69%	3186	19	8	8.0
Lanorris Sellers	4	4	100%	86	2	0	21.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Anderson	143	707	3	4.9	75
Dakereon Joyner	50	120	5	2.4	16
Spencer Rattler	98	102	4	1.0	28
Juju McDowell	26	63	2	2.4	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Legette	71	1255	7	17.7	76
Trey Knox (Tr)	37	312	2	8.4	22
Ahmarean Brown	26	265	1	10.2	44
Joshua Simon (Tr)	28	256	2	9.1	33

View South Carolina's Full Roster

SC's DC Clayton White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Debo Williams	113	9	1	2	2
Jalon Kilgore	76	2	0	0	6
DQ Smith	73	2	1	0	2
Nick Emmanwori	71	0	0	1	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Strachan	20	8	5	2	1
T.J. Sanders	43	10	5	4	4
Tyreek Johnson	16	4	3	2	0
Bam Martin-Scott	38	4	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcellas Dial	36	2	1	0	10
Nick Emmanwori	71	0	0	1	8
Tonka Hemingway	32	5	2	6	7